Remember what I said last week about the good teams starting to separate themselves from the crappy teams? Yeah, never mind.
I still don't trust the Patriots, even though they won Sunday night. The Broncos and Seahawks are clearly each conference's best team, but when was the last time the Super Bowl featured a pair of #1 seeds in the game? The last time a #1 seed even won the Super Bowl was the 2009 Saints, but I can't remember the last time both top seeds even got to the big game.
Then there are a bunch of teams like the Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Falcons, Bengals, and Redskins who have at least hit stumbling blocks, if not flat out underachieved so far this season. So just how many teams can be seen as true contenders in the league right now?
I know talking like this is absurdly premature, and it probably won't be another month or so before we really know which teams could realistically make a Super Bowl run. I still have this feeling that this year's champ will have a run similar to what the last three Super Bowl champs had - a hot run starting in mid to late December, followed by a big push come January.
With that said, let's switch things up a bit by taking a look at each division through four weeks.
1. The AFC East: It ain't just the Patriots and a bunch of lousy teams anymore. I am a believer in the Dolphins. I don't care that they were easily handled by the Saints last night. I was a little hesitant to pick them to win the AFC East before the season, but as each week passes I am more and more confident that they will win the division this year, forcing the Patriots to fight for a Wild Card spot. I have no idea what to make of the Bills yet, because even though they beat the Ravens on Sunday, they still found themselves in a position where the Ravens could have at least forced overtime, if not drove down field to win the game with a touchdown. And the Jets are, sadly, still the Jets.
2. The AFC North: Mediocrity is king. Three of the four teams are 2-2, and the Steelers are 0-4. The Ravens and Bengals shot themselves in the foot this past weekend, but I think the Ravens in particular inflicted a lot of self-damage for a couple reasons. First, five interceptions speak for themselves, but at least two interceptions were not Flacco's fault (an argument could be made for a third not being his fault either). Factoring in the atrocious offensive line play and pathetic run defense, and there's plenty of blame to go around the entire team for their loss. Then again, the fact that the Ravens even had a chance to tie the game if not win it outright at the end says an awful lot about how bad the Bills played as well. They had the Ravens down dead to rights when they were up 20-7, so the Ravens had no business having a chance to win that game at all.
Then there's the Bengals/Browns game. I don't know how the Browns have done it, but they have won their last two games in pretty convincing fashion. They took the Bengals' best player out of the game completely, and made Andy Dalton look below average at best. I didn't think the Bengals were quite ready to compete for the division title this year, and this weekend is a pretty good indicator that I was right about that.
3. The AFC South: The Texans are doing exactly what I had expected them to do. I said in my predictions that I expected the Colts to steal the division away from the Texans, implying it would be a close match down the stretch. It may not be as close as I had originally expected. If the Texans continue to blow 17-point leads like they did to the Seahawks (at home, no less), they could very well find themselves on the outside of the playoff hunt looking in, especially with the Chiefs bouncing back this year in a big way. The Titans are overachieving so reality will settle in on them being a mediocre team, and the Jaguars could probably be beaten by at least a few college teams, especially Alabama.
4. The AFC West: The Chiefs could wind up with at least 10 wins but not be able to host a playoff game. Talk about a raw deal for the Chiefs. They've pulled a 180-degree turnaround from where they were a year ago, and already doubled their win total from 2012. And yet because they are in the same division as the Broncos, they would have to go on the road for the playoffs. Andy Reid is an early pick (a VERY early pick) for Coach of the Year at this point, especially if they do make the playoffs.
5. The NFC East: 8-8 could be enough to win the division. Remember the hoopla from a couple years ago when the Seahawks won the NFC West at 7-9, and hosted a playoff game? We could face a similar situation with the NFC East this year, given how mediocre (and that's being polite) the entire division looks. The Giants are putrid, having score 7 points in their last 8 quarters of play; the Eagles' fast paced offense looks like a Week 1 wonder; I trust Jason Garrett as far as I can throw him; and the Redskins are 1-3. I thought the Eagles could win the division by winning 10 games, and at this point I doubt any team in this division will win that many.
6. The NFC North: There could be a changing of the guard. I'm not about to bury the Packers necessarily, but the Bears and Lions both look vastly improved from last season. I didn't expect the Lions to be much better than they were in 2012, but Reggie Bush has been an incredible addition to their offense (and to my fantasy team, if I may brag for a moment). They use him how he should have been used for his entire career, and even though the Bears hit a wall against Detroit this weekend, they look better as well. The Packers have the best quarterback in the division (and one of the best ones in the entire league), but they could find themselves on the outside of the playoff hunt come December as well.
7. The NFC South: Proof positive that a team still needs its head coach to be as good as it can be. The Saints' lone Achilles heel continues to be their defense, but their offense looks more fluid and coherent through its first four games than it did all of last year. Last night's game shows Drew Brees is back to his old self, and the Saints have certainly benefited from the Falcons stumbling out of the gate a bit so far.
8. The NFC West: The curse of the reigning Super Bowl loser lives on. There was a stretch for a while where if a team had reached the Super Bowl but lost, they had failed make the playoffs the following year. This stretch was broken with the Seahawks in 2007, but the 49ers have looked largely sluggish through their first four games this season. I'm not sure if that's a product of teams figuring out how to defend Colin Kaepernick or the injuries the team has sustained so far (Aldon Smith is another issue all together). The Seahawks currently have a 2-game lead in the division, including a huge win over the 49ers in Week 2, so if that gap continues expanding San Francisco may also be fighting for a Wild Card spot.
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
NFL Week 3 Snap Judgments
We're now three weeks in to the season already, and the good teams are now starting to separate themselves from the bad teams in the league. After Week 4, I may switch up my Snap Judgments a bit more, but I will refrain from talking about details over that until next week.
1. If you want to check out the bad teams, start with the Giants. Umm....wow. If anyone had told me on Friday the Giants would not only lose to the Panthers, but be shut out 38-0, I'd have laughed in their face. I don't even know what the Giants' main problem is. They're obviously turning the ball over at alarming rates, but is that a by-product of awful offensive line play? Eli making bad decisions again? The defense failing to make plays and stop opposing offenses? I know I wouldn't want to be watching film of Sunday's game with Tom Coughlin this week, that's for sure.
2. In fact, the Goat of the Week Award goes to the Giants' offensive line. Through three games, Eli Manning has been sacked a total of 10 times. That puts him on pace for 53 sacks on the season, which is a brutal beating for any quarterback to take. He's also thrown 8 interceptions thus far, which isn't always directly related to poor o-line play, but he's certainly been forced to make some bad throws thanks to his line not protecting him.
3. I was originally going to say the Browns were playing for a .500 season in 2018, but they actually have a little fight in them. Arguably the biggest surprise of the weekend was the Browns' offense giving the Vikings the business. Bryan Hoyer - Bryan Hoyer!!! - looked like a competent quarterback, and could possibly have the starting job the rest of the season, given how the organization clearly is not enamored with Brandon Weeden. Trading away their best offensive weapon in Trent Richardson looked like a sign the team was waving the white flag in Week 3, but they can clearly put some points on the board. They will still likely end up with a top 10 pick (and maybe even a top 5 pick) in the draft next year, but they aren't the pushover they were perceived to be.
4. The Ravens' defense has brushed off the cobwebs. After a dismal opening game in Denver, the Ravens' defense has started to show just how good it can be. They haven't allowed a touchdown in their last two games, including this weekend's dominant performance against the high-powered Houston offense. They took Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, De'Andre Hopkins, and Owen Daniels out of the game. And not to be outdone, but Marshall Yanda on the offensive line also took out Houston's best defensive player in J.J. Watt. That's a very impressive feat.
5. Meanwhile, just who are the Texans? They managed to win their first two games on their final possessions, including an overtime win over the Titans last week. This week, they struggled to move the ball after the first quarter, and even with the offensive weapons they have they couldn't find the end zone at all. They were heavily expected to beat the Ravens, but once again they could not beat one of the top tier teams in the AFC. I still stand by my prediction that the Colts win the AFC South this year, and the Texans are forced to fight for one of the Wild Card spots.
6. Raise your hands if you expected the Dolphins, Chiefs, Bears, and Saints to be 3-0 at this point so I may promptly bop you on the head for lying to my face. It's easy to proclaim the Chiefs as the most improved team in the NFL this year since they've already eclipsed their entire win total from last year, but how 'bout them Dolphins? Did anyone think they'd be 3-0 at this point, beating the likes of the Colts and Falcons along the way? The Bears and Saints are less surprising, though the Bears' first two wins were pretty miraculous. All four of these teams will likely be in the hunt for the playoffs come December, and I'm even more convinced now that the Dolphins will wind up winning the AFC East than I was prior to the season starting.
7. The 49ers could be in real trouble. I've seen quite a bit of discussion over the fact that the 49ers are under .500 for the first time under Jim Harbaugh as head coach. To say such a statement is an insane overreaction is putting things mildly. However, they are going to be without Aldon Smith for the foreseeable future following his DUI last week, which means their pass rush will take a major blow. Their next 4 games include at St. Louis, Houston and Arizona at home, and then at Tennessee. If they went 2-2 during that span I'd be impressed, though that still wouldn't get them back to .500.
8. When was the last time you saw a game where a team was penalized 20 times and still won? I caught the tail end of the Jets/Bills game, around the point where the Bills had scored a touchdown and a game-tying 2-point conversation midway through the 4th quarter. Had the Jets gone on to lose the game, Kyle Wilson would have easily been the Goat of the Week for me since he had committed three back-to-back-to-back personal foul penalties on Stevie Johnson. He was eventually taken back to the sidelines to cool off, and amazingly the Jets still held on to win the game despite being so undisciplined on the field. I'm really surprised the Jets are 2-1 at this point, though I expect reality will settle in over the next few weeks for them.
9. Another game, another incredible performance by Peyton Manning. Honestly, is anyone getting tired of what to say about Peyton? I think I'm out of words to describe him without resorting to cliche after cliche. I have to admit, I'm at the point where I care more to see what he can do come December and January than what he can do in September. He has crashed and burned in the playoffs far more often than not, so until I see him able to play at or near this kind of level in cold weather I will remain skeptical over Denver's chances of playing in Super Bowl 48.
1. If you want to check out the bad teams, start with the Giants. Umm....wow. If anyone had told me on Friday the Giants would not only lose to the Panthers, but be shut out 38-0, I'd have laughed in their face. I don't even know what the Giants' main problem is. They're obviously turning the ball over at alarming rates, but is that a by-product of awful offensive line play? Eli making bad decisions again? The defense failing to make plays and stop opposing offenses? I know I wouldn't want to be watching film of Sunday's game with Tom Coughlin this week, that's for sure.
2. In fact, the Goat of the Week Award goes to the Giants' offensive line. Through three games, Eli Manning has been sacked a total of 10 times. That puts him on pace for 53 sacks on the season, which is a brutal beating for any quarterback to take. He's also thrown 8 interceptions thus far, which isn't always directly related to poor o-line play, but he's certainly been forced to make some bad throws thanks to his line not protecting him.
3. I was originally going to say the Browns were playing for a .500 season in 2018, but they actually have a little fight in them. Arguably the biggest surprise of the weekend was the Browns' offense giving the Vikings the business. Bryan Hoyer - Bryan Hoyer!!! - looked like a competent quarterback, and could possibly have the starting job the rest of the season, given how the organization clearly is not enamored with Brandon Weeden. Trading away their best offensive weapon in Trent Richardson looked like a sign the team was waving the white flag in Week 3, but they can clearly put some points on the board. They will still likely end up with a top 10 pick (and maybe even a top 5 pick) in the draft next year, but they aren't the pushover they were perceived to be.
4. The Ravens' defense has brushed off the cobwebs. After a dismal opening game in Denver, the Ravens' defense has started to show just how good it can be. They haven't allowed a touchdown in their last two games, including this weekend's dominant performance against the high-powered Houston offense. They took Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, De'Andre Hopkins, and Owen Daniels out of the game. And not to be outdone, but Marshall Yanda on the offensive line also took out Houston's best defensive player in J.J. Watt. That's a very impressive feat.
5. Meanwhile, just who are the Texans? They managed to win their first two games on their final possessions, including an overtime win over the Titans last week. This week, they struggled to move the ball after the first quarter, and even with the offensive weapons they have they couldn't find the end zone at all. They were heavily expected to beat the Ravens, but once again they could not beat one of the top tier teams in the AFC. I still stand by my prediction that the Colts win the AFC South this year, and the Texans are forced to fight for one of the Wild Card spots.
6. Raise your hands if you expected the Dolphins, Chiefs, Bears, and Saints to be 3-0 at this point so I may promptly bop you on the head for lying to my face. It's easy to proclaim the Chiefs as the most improved team in the NFL this year since they've already eclipsed their entire win total from last year, but how 'bout them Dolphins? Did anyone think they'd be 3-0 at this point, beating the likes of the Colts and Falcons along the way? The Bears and Saints are less surprising, though the Bears' first two wins were pretty miraculous. All four of these teams will likely be in the hunt for the playoffs come December, and I'm even more convinced now that the Dolphins will wind up winning the AFC East than I was prior to the season starting.
7. The 49ers could be in real trouble. I've seen quite a bit of discussion over the fact that the 49ers are under .500 for the first time under Jim Harbaugh as head coach. To say such a statement is an insane overreaction is putting things mildly. However, they are going to be without Aldon Smith for the foreseeable future following his DUI last week, which means their pass rush will take a major blow. Their next 4 games include at St. Louis, Houston and Arizona at home, and then at Tennessee. If they went 2-2 during that span I'd be impressed, though that still wouldn't get them back to .500.
8. When was the last time you saw a game where a team was penalized 20 times and still won? I caught the tail end of the Jets/Bills game, around the point where the Bills had scored a touchdown and a game-tying 2-point conversation midway through the 4th quarter. Had the Jets gone on to lose the game, Kyle Wilson would have easily been the Goat of the Week for me since he had committed three back-to-back-to-back personal foul penalties on Stevie Johnson. He was eventually taken back to the sidelines to cool off, and amazingly the Jets still held on to win the game despite being so undisciplined on the field. I'm really surprised the Jets are 2-1 at this point, though I expect reality will settle in over the next few weeks for them.
9. Another game, another incredible performance by Peyton Manning. Honestly, is anyone getting tired of what to say about Peyton? I think I'm out of words to describe him without resorting to cliche after cliche. I have to admit, I'm at the point where I care more to see what he can do come December and January than what he can do in September. He has crashed and burned in the playoffs far more often than not, so until I see him able to play at or near this kind of level in cold weather I will remain skeptical over Denver's chances of playing in Super Bowl 48.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
NFL Week 2 Snap Judgments
Week 2 has already come and gone, and here are my thoughts...
1. Stop me if you heard this before, but an entire division stunk except for a single wide receiver. Last week it was the AFC North; this week was the NFC East's turn. If not for a crazy day from Dez Bryant, the entire division laid an egg. Oh sure, the Eagles put 30 points up on the board thanks to big days from LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, but the defense gave up 419 yards passing to Philip Rivers. Not many football teams will win a game while giving up that kind of yardage. The Giants continued turning over the ball which led to their demise, and the Redskins couldn't save a turkey from becoming Thanksgiving dinner. In fact, speaking of the Redskins...
2. What do the Redskins do with RGIII? From a fantasy football perspective, I wanted nothing to do with drafting RGIII as my quarterback on any of my teams. He hadn't played a down in any football game since January, and spent the entire off-season rehabbing his knee. He didn't play at all during the preseason either, so there were bound to be cobwebs and rusty play for at least the first week or so. Still, yesterday he looked very uncomfortable throwing the football and avoiding any hits. Tony Dungy even said on Sunday Night Football that the Redskins should consider benching him after next week if he continues to play poorly. Personally, I think that's extremely premature, but the Redskins also can't afford to continue digging a deeper hole for them while waiting for RGIII to get back into playing shape.
3. The Patriots are in serious trouble. When was the last time those words found themselves in the same sentence? I expected the Patriots to take a step backwards this season given their extremely weak group of receivers, but even I was surprised at how bad they looked last Thursday night against the Jets. I'm a firm believer in the Bill Parcells philosophy of "You are what your record says you are," but barely squeaking by the Bills and Jets is a huge concern for a team who was in the Super Bowl two years ago, and was in the AFC Championship Game last year. Miami is looking really good after their first two games, which puts the Patriots in the position of someone actually breathing down their necks. That's a very foreign situation for them.
4. The rest of the NFC could face a daunting task if the Seahawks wind up with the #1 seed in the playoffs. The Seahawks' home field advantage has always been somewhat skewed due to how sound travels in their stadium. I don't know much about the mechanics or engineering of it, except that the stadium's design and location near water makes sound much louder than most other NFL stadiums. It showed Sunday night thanks to Seahawks fans aiming for setting new noise records during a game. That would disrupt any opposing team's communication from the sidelines to the field. Even though we're a long way off from January, the Seahawks have shown over the last few years they are extremely tough to beat in their own house.
5. The Goat of the Week Award goes to the CBS affiliate station WKMG in Orlando. This is a really outside the box pick, but check this out. How pathetic is that if a station in the Jaguars' home market has to apologize for the "inconvenience" of showing the Jaguars game instead of the Broncos/Giants game? Maybe the more appropriate goat is the Jaguars for being as awful a team as they are, but I think it's pretty telling if a local network knows how bad the team is and feels ashamed for being contractually obligated to televise them.
6. The Cardiac Kodiaks have been pretty remarkable so far. Seeing how the Bears have made two fairly big comebacks in the first two weeks of the season, I'm reminded of a two-week stretch for the Bears way back in 2001:
Incidentally, how much better was NFL Prime Time with only Chris Berman and Tom Jackson? Man, those were the good ol' days. Sigh....
7. Ron Rivera can't last much longer in Carolina. This season marks the third year for the Panthers with Ron Rivera as head coach, and it's the third straight year they've started slow. They find new and bizarre ways to blow leads late in games, putting themselves in a deep hole by mid-season. The last couple years, they find some kind of stride fairly late in the season and wind up winning 5 or 6 of their final few games. If they lose next weekend and start 0-3 - which is a real possibility since they are playing against the desperate Giants - ownership may have to consider making a coaching change at some point this season.
8. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs wound up winning double-digit games at this point. I know, talk about jumping to potentially irrational conclusions. But considering the Chiefs have already equaled last season's win total - albeit one of those games was against Jacksonville - they're clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL right now. Plus, they have yet to turn the ball over even once. Don't get me wrong, though; I don't necessarily think they are good enough to win the AFC West yet, but they could very well compete for a Wild Card come December.
9. The Todd Haley Experiment in Pittsburgh is imploding. I'm not sure if there's any one thing that's caused the Steelers to struggle so much in the first two games of the season. The offensive line is clearly a weakness, so I can't imagine that the line coach will have a job there much longer. But when the offense (and the team as a whole) only scores two touchdowns through the first two games of a season, that's about the worst kind of omen. Even as a Ravens fan, I wouldn't have expected this kind of showing from the Steelers for a prolonged period of time. The Steelers usually have one down year in every 5-year span or so, but last year's struggles have slopped over into this season, and there's no sign of things changing any time soon. The Steelers are back at home next week against Chicago, so there's a real chance they could find themselves at 0-3.
1. Stop me if you heard this before, but an entire division stunk except for a single wide receiver. Last week it was the AFC North; this week was the NFC East's turn. If not for a crazy day from Dez Bryant, the entire division laid an egg. Oh sure, the Eagles put 30 points up on the board thanks to big days from LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, but the defense gave up 419 yards passing to Philip Rivers. Not many football teams will win a game while giving up that kind of yardage. The Giants continued turning over the ball which led to their demise, and the Redskins couldn't save a turkey from becoming Thanksgiving dinner. In fact, speaking of the Redskins...
2. What do the Redskins do with RGIII? From a fantasy football perspective, I wanted nothing to do with drafting RGIII as my quarterback on any of my teams. He hadn't played a down in any football game since January, and spent the entire off-season rehabbing his knee. He didn't play at all during the preseason either, so there were bound to be cobwebs and rusty play for at least the first week or so. Still, yesterday he looked very uncomfortable throwing the football and avoiding any hits. Tony Dungy even said on Sunday Night Football that the Redskins should consider benching him after next week if he continues to play poorly. Personally, I think that's extremely premature, but the Redskins also can't afford to continue digging a deeper hole for them while waiting for RGIII to get back into playing shape.
3. The Patriots are in serious trouble. When was the last time those words found themselves in the same sentence? I expected the Patriots to take a step backwards this season given their extremely weak group of receivers, but even I was surprised at how bad they looked last Thursday night against the Jets. I'm a firm believer in the Bill Parcells philosophy of "You are what your record says you are," but barely squeaking by the Bills and Jets is a huge concern for a team who was in the Super Bowl two years ago, and was in the AFC Championship Game last year. Miami is looking really good after their first two games, which puts the Patriots in the position of someone actually breathing down their necks. That's a very foreign situation for them.
4. The rest of the NFC could face a daunting task if the Seahawks wind up with the #1 seed in the playoffs. The Seahawks' home field advantage has always been somewhat skewed due to how sound travels in their stadium. I don't know much about the mechanics or engineering of it, except that the stadium's design and location near water makes sound much louder than most other NFL stadiums. It showed Sunday night thanks to Seahawks fans aiming for setting new noise records during a game. That would disrupt any opposing team's communication from the sidelines to the field. Even though we're a long way off from January, the Seahawks have shown over the last few years they are extremely tough to beat in their own house.
5. The Goat of the Week Award goes to the CBS affiliate station WKMG in Orlando. This is a really outside the box pick, but check this out. How pathetic is that if a station in the Jaguars' home market has to apologize for the "inconvenience" of showing the Jaguars game instead of the Broncos/Giants game? Maybe the more appropriate goat is the Jaguars for being as awful a team as they are, but I think it's pretty telling if a local network knows how bad the team is and feels ashamed for being contractually obligated to televise them.
6. The Cardiac Kodiaks have been pretty remarkable so far. Seeing how the Bears have made two fairly big comebacks in the first two weeks of the season, I'm reminded of a two-week stretch for the Bears way back in 2001:
Incidentally, how much better was NFL Prime Time with only Chris Berman and Tom Jackson? Man, those were the good ol' days. Sigh....
7. Ron Rivera can't last much longer in Carolina. This season marks the third year for the Panthers with Ron Rivera as head coach, and it's the third straight year they've started slow. They find new and bizarre ways to blow leads late in games, putting themselves in a deep hole by mid-season. The last couple years, they find some kind of stride fairly late in the season and wind up winning 5 or 6 of their final few games. If they lose next weekend and start 0-3 - which is a real possibility since they are playing against the desperate Giants - ownership may have to consider making a coaching change at some point this season.
8. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs wound up winning double-digit games at this point. I know, talk about jumping to potentially irrational conclusions. But considering the Chiefs have already equaled last season's win total - albeit one of those games was against Jacksonville - they're clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL right now. Plus, they have yet to turn the ball over even once. Don't get me wrong, though; I don't necessarily think they are good enough to win the AFC West yet, but they could very well compete for a Wild Card come December.
9. The Todd Haley Experiment in Pittsburgh is imploding. I'm not sure if there's any one thing that's caused the Steelers to struggle so much in the first two games of the season. The offensive line is clearly a weakness, so I can't imagine that the line coach will have a job there much longer. But when the offense (and the team as a whole) only scores two touchdowns through the first two games of a season, that's about the worst kind of omen. Even as a Ravens fan, I wouldn't have expected this kind of showing from the Steelers for a prolonged period of time. The Steelers usually have one down year in every 5-year span or so, but last year's struggles have slopped over into this season, and there's no sign of things changing any time soon. The Steelers are back at home next week against Chicago, so there's a real chance they could find themselves at 0-3.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
NFL Week 1 Snap Judgments
This was an idea that I had for last season, but it never got off the ground. I didn't want to start mid-season in writing my weekly recaps and thoughts, so I figured I'd hold off till now to get it going. Hopefully I won't run out of steam during the course of the season at all.
It's worth noting that almost all these thoughts are going to be unfair given we're only 1 week into the season, but that's what snap judgments are for.
1. The AFC North looked absolutely awful this weekend aside from A.J. Green. I'm super grateful that I have A.J. Green on a couple fantasy teams of mine, but wow. The Ravens fell apart in the second half of their season opener Thursday night in Denver; Cincinnati couldn't hold on to a 21-17 lead in the 4th quarter against Chicago; and Pittsburgh and Cleveland were both so bad on offense they were offensive to offenses around the league. A.J. Green was the lone bright spot for the entire division this weekend, and he put his team on his shoulders in an effort to win on Sunday. The rest of the team just couldn't back him up.
2. What did I say about Larry Fitzgerald? I told you in my season predictions that Larry Fitzgerald will be the Comeback Player of the Year now that he has a quarterback who can actually play the position. I know, it's only one game, but he looked every bit as awesome Sunday as he did with Kurt Warner. 'Nuff said.
3. Even with replay and the actual officials, we will always have blown calls in games. I'm talking about the blunder in offsetting penalties in the Green Bay/San Francisco game. Hey, I would never claim to know the rule book in the NFL, and I don't envy the refs who have to make calls like that on the field at a moment's notice. But when refs have time to blow a call even after having time to review the play and discuss it before making an official announcement during the game, that's a major black eye. I don't know what the solution to the problem is, but I'd really hate to see what would happen in a playoff game or the Super Bowl if such a blown call affected the outcome somehow.
4. I might have picked the wrong team to go 0-16. I said in my predictions that the Raiders have a chance at going 0-16 this year, assuming they don't beat the Jaguars in Week 2. Ironically, now it looks like it's the Jaguars who look more likely to go 0-16 if they don't win this coming weekend in Oakland. I'm not sure which position(s) they need to address in order to become a competitive team again, but they somehow managed to look less competitive than the Raiders did. And that's saying something.
5. The Goat of the Week Award has to go to Lavonte David. The Bucs were up 17-15 with less than a minute to play in the game when Jets QB Geno Smith scrambled for 10 yards. He was on his way out of bounds when Lavonte David of the Bucs pushed Smith, even though Smith was already out of bounds. That kind of play will always get a flag for unnecessary roughness, which tacked on 15 yards on the end of the play, putting the Jets in field goal range. With 34 seconds left on the clock, the Jets kicked a game-winning field goal, thanks to the dumb penalty on David. Nice one, Lavonte. You not only cost your team the game, but I bet a lot of people playing Survivor leagues in fantasy football were eliminated in Week 1 thanks to you (I took the Colts, so I'm safe).
6. The Broncos will be really good again, but I still don't trust their defense. They will be without Von Miller for another 5 weeks, and I don't know when Champ Bailey is expected to come back from his injury. Still, they're going to win 11 or 12 games this season. However, I don't think they're a Super Bowl team because of their defensive issues and Peyton Manning's history of collapsing in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, though - Peyton Manning was by far the single best player who took the field in Week 1.
7. I'm not sure what to make of the Bills/Patriots game. The Bills have played the Patriots close in a few games over the last couple years, and they've fooled me into thinking they could pull off the upset in the past. However, I've made no secret over how down I am on the Patriots this year, so the question here is where do the Bills' positives end and the Patriots' negatives begin? Danny Amendola wasted no time in pulling a groin injury during the game (though he did return after a brief absence), so it's only a question of when he winds up injuring himself to the point of having to miss a couple weeks. The Patriots still did what they have done countless times in the past, and that's kick a game-winning field goal late in the 4th quarter.
8. The only reason why the Eagles might not win the NFC East is because of their defense. I'm still sticking to my prediction of the Eagles pulling off the improbable by winning their division this year. I'm actually more confident of my prediction now than I was prior to this weekend, though it's clear the team's major weakness is its defense. How else does a team at one point lead a game 33-7, and then wind up with a final score of 33-27? Despite this glaring weakness though, I am still believing in the team winning the division and making the playoffs.
9. Nearly all these snap judgments will be moot a month from now. That's the great irony to Week 1. Football fans and talking heads are all so excited to have the new season start, but after the first weekend, teams are either looking like Super Bowl champions or utter disasters. Eyes are particularly on the defending champs, and plenty of writers and fans are wondering if they'll even make the playoffs this season. Reality is always somewhere between extremes, and I think the Ravens will still win the AFC North and make a deep playoff run. Accuse me of wearing purple-colored glasses all you like, but they won't be as awful as they were in the second half of the game Thursday night.
It's worth noting that almost all these thoughts are going to be unfair given we're only 1 week into the season, but that's what snap judgments are for.
1. The AFC North looked absolutely awful this weekend aside from A.J. Green. I'm super grateful that I have A.J. Green on a couple fantasy teams of mine, but wow. The Ravens fell apart in the second half of their season opener Thursday night in Denver; Cincinnati couldn't hold on to a 21-17 lead in the 4th quarter against Chicago; and Pittsburgh and Cleveland were both so bad on offense they were offensive to offenses around the league. A.J. Green was the lone bright spot for the entire division this weekend, and he put his team on his shoulders in an effort to win on Sunday. The rest of the team just couldn't back him up.
2. What did I say about Larry Fitzgerald? I told you in my season predictions that Larry Fitzgerald will be the Comeback Player of the Year now that he has a quarterback who can actually play the position. I know, it's only one game, but he looked every bit as awesome Sunday as he did with Kurt Warner. 'Nuff said.
3. Even with replay and the actual officials, we will always have blown calls in games. I'm talking about the blunder in offsetting penalties in the Green Bay/San Francisco game. Hey, I would never claim to know the rule book in the NFL, and I don't envy the refs who have to make calls like that on the field at a moment's notice. But when refs have time to blow a call even after having time to review the play and discuss it before making an official announcement during the game, that's a major black eye. I don't know what the solution to the problem is, but I'd really hate to see what would happen in a playoff game or the Super Bowl if such a blown call affected the outcome somehow.
4. I might have picked the wrong team to go 0-16. I said in my predictions that the Raiders have a chance at going 0-16 this year, assuming they don't beat the Jaguars in Week 2. Ironically, now it looks like it's the Jaguars who look more likely to go 0-16 if they don't win this coming weekend in Oakland. I'm not sure which position(s) they need to address in order to become a competitive team again, but they somehow managed to look less competitive than the Raiders did. And that's saying something.
5. The Goat of the Week Award has to go to Lavonte David. The Bucs were up 17-15 with less than a minute to play in the game when Jets QB Geno Smith scrambled for 10 yards. He was on his way out of bounds when Lavonte David of the Bucs pushed Smith, even though Smith was already out of bounds. That kind of play will always get a flag for unnecessary roughness, which tacked on 15 yards on the end of the play, putting the Jets in field goal range. With 34 seconds left on the clock, the Jets kicked a game-winning field goal, thanks to the dumb penalty on David. Nice one, Lavonte. You not only cost your team the game, but I bet a lot of people playing Survivor leagues in fantasy football were eliminated in Week 1 thanks to you (I took the Colts, so I'm safe).
6. The Broncos will be really good again, but I still don't trust their defense. They will be without Von Miller for another 5 weeks, and I don't know when Champ Bailey is expected to come back from his injury. Still, they're going to win 11 or 12 games this season. However, I don't think they're a Super Bowl team because of their defensive issues and Peyton Manning's history of collapsing in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, though - Peyton Manning was by far the single best player who took the field in Week 1.
7. I'm not sure what to make of the Bills/Patriots game. The Bills have played the Patriots close in a few games over the last couple years, and they've fooled me into thinking they could pull off the upset in the past. However, I've made no secret over how down I am on the Patriots this year, so the question here is where do the Bills' positives end and the Patriots' negatives begin? Danny Amendola wasted no time in pulling a groin injury during the game (though he did return after a brief absence), so it's only a question of when he winds up injuring himself to the point of having to miss a couple weeks. The Patriots still did what they have done countless times in the past, and that's kick a game-winning field goal late in the 4th quarter.
8. The only reason why the Eagles might not win the NFC East is because of their defense. I'm still sticking to my prediction of the Eagles pulling off the improbable by winning their division this year. I'm actually more confident of my prediction now than I was prior to this weekend, though it's clear the team's major weakness is its defense. How else does a team at one point lead a game 33-7, and then wind up with a final score of 33-27? Despite this glaring weakness though, I am still believing in the team winning the division and making the playoffs.
9. Nearly all these snap judgments will be moot a month from now. That's the great irony to Week 1. Football fans and talking heads are all so excited to have the new season start, but after the first weekend, teams are either looking like Super Bowl champions or utter disasters. Eyes are particularly on the defending champs, and plenty of writers and fans are wondering if they'll even make the playoffs this season. Reality is always somewhere between extremes, and I think the Ravens will still win the AFC North and make a deep playoff run. Accuse me of wearing purple-colored glasses all you like, but they won't be as awful as they were in the second half of the game Thursday night.
Monday, September 9, 2013
Recognizing My Greatest Fault
I wrote a while back about my intention to find a therapist after a recent issue that came up with me. I haven't talked about it since because most of our discussions so far have been too personal for me to want to write about them openly on here. This week's session, however, really shed some light on a big picture issue that I've been somewhat aware of for a long time, yet chose to ignore.
As far back as I can remember, I've avoided conflict as much as possible. I've long thought of myself as a very agreeable and easy-going person, one who doesn't let too much get under his skin. If someone did something to hurt me, I'm more than willing to forgive and forget, provided the person recognizes what he/she had done was wrong and hurt me in the process. I've never been a person who has either been comfortable with or enjoyed chewing someone else out, even if I'm in the right. I hated the idea of getting emotionally worked up over something to the point of really getting angry, only to find out my anger wasn't justified in the first place. I often talked myself out of being angry, thinking I was being mature and level-headed in analyzing the situation in question, and then deciding if it was really worth getting upset over at all. More often than not, I opted for burying the hatchet and moving on. Life was too short and precious in my eyes to agonize over someone hurting my feelings.
Trouble is, this line of thinking formed a pattern of passive aggressiveness. It's clearly been a part of my life since childhood, and it's affected many relationships over the course of my life - dating and otherwise - and even now in the present. My fear of rocking the boat morphed into fears like making bad decisions, saying something that I would regret later, and an inability to really express my feelings to others. Having a preoccupation of being a people pleaser at my own sanity's expense was anything but healthy, even though in my mind I was convinced I was taking the high road in avoiding expressing anger.
Up until now, my therapist has allowed me to talk about any subject that I wanted to discuss, but this week's session she took a left turn. She said now that we've been meeting for several weeks, she's gotten a feel for who I am as a person, how I'm likely to respond in certain situations, and what kinds of comments or recommendations she has for me. She gave me a homework assignment to do in preparation for our next meeting, and I have to research passive aggressive behavior.
So far, the one piece of information that caught my attention the most was a form of covert abuse. When the word "abuse" comes to mind, I always picture something of a physical or emotional nature. It's very direct, and easily identifiable.
This kind of abuse is much, much different. From what I've read, it involves behaviors like forgetfulness, blaming, procrastination, lack of anger, and victimization - all of which I've definitely been guilty of in the past. While I'm sure that I wasn't fully aware of what I was doing at the time, it doesn't change the fact that what I did was hurtful and selfish. The crappy part is that most people probably wouldn't get too upset with me if I simply chose to speak my mind and communicate my feelings.
I almost didn't want to write about this because the subject could easily turn into one of two things: a pity party or a cry for attention. It certainly isn't meant to be either of those; I'm finally being honest with myself, and this blog is probably the most healthy venue to get my thoughts out. I mentioned this blog to my therapist last week too, and she agreed that it's a good way to get my emotions out when I need to, even if I write a post that I opt not to openly publish (which I have done several times).
I don't expect or want a pat on the back for making this kind of realization. If anything, I'm hoping that this opens the door for more breakthroughs that are for my benefit, even if the initial reveal isn't something pleasant. Then again, there's little point in trying to become mentally healthy if I don't confront some unpleasant things about myself at all.
As far back as I can remember, I've avoided conflict as much as possible. I've long thought of myself as a very agreeable and easy-going person, one who doesn't let too much get under his skin. If someone did something to hurt me, I'm more than willing to forgive and forget, provided the person recognizes what he/she had done was wrong and hurt me in the process. I've never been a person who has either been comfortable with or enjoyed chewing someone else out, even if I'm in the right. I hated the idea of getting emotionally worked up over something to the point of really getting angry, only to find out my anger wasn't justified in the first place. I often talked myself out of being angry, thinking I was being mature and level-headed in analyzing the situation in question, and then deciding if it was really worth getting upset over at all. More often than not, I opted for burying the hatchet and moving on. Life was too short and precious in my eyes to agonize over someone hurting my feelings.
Trouble is, this line of thinking formed a pattern of passive aggressiveness. It's clearly been a part of my life since childhood, and it's affected many relationships over the course of my life - dating and otherwise - and even now in the present. My fear of rocking the boat morphed into fears like making bad decisions, saying something that I would regret later, and an inability to really express my feelings to others. Having a preoccupation of being a people pleaser at my own sanity's expense was anything but healthy, even though in my mind I was convinced I was taking the high road in avoiding expressing anger.
Up until now, my therapist has allowed me to talk about any subject that I wanted to discuss, but this week's session she took a left turn. She said now that we've been meeting for several weeks, she's gotten a feel for who I am as a person, how I'm likely to respond in certain situations, and what kinds of comments or recommendations she has for me. She gave me a homework assignment to do in preparation for our next meeting, and I have to research passive aggressive behavior.
So far, the one piece of information that caught my attention the most was a form of covert abuse. When the word "abuse" comes to mind, I always picture something of a physical or emotional nature. It's very direct, and easily identifiable.
This kind of abuse is much, much different. From what I've read, it involves behaviors like forgetfulness, blaming, procrastination, lack of anger, and victimization - all of which I've definitely been guilty of in the past. While I'm sure that I wasn't fully aware of what I was doing at the time, it doesn't change the fact that what I did was hurtful and selfish. The crappy part is that most people probably wouldn't get too upset with me if I simply chose to speak my mind and communicate my feelings.
I almost didn't want to write about this because the subject could easily turn into one of two things: a pity party or a cry for attention. It certainly isn't meant to be either of those; I'm finally being honest with myself, and this blog is probably the most healthy venue to get my thoughts out. I mentioned this blog to my therapist last week too, and she agreed that it's a good way to get my emotions out when I need to, even if I write a post that I opt not to openly publish (which I have done several times).
I don't expect or want a pat on the back for making this kind of realization. If anything, I'm hoping that this opens the door for more breakthroughs that are for my benefit, even if the initial reveal isn't something pleasant. Then again, there's little point in trying to become mentally healthy if I don't confront some unpleasant things about myself at all.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Roger Goodell Made His Bed, And Now He May Have to Sleep In It
Many football fans, myself included, love watching a football game being played in winter weather. There's something fitting about it, considering the sport is played in the fall months into the winter, and by the time December rolls around cold weather starts to affect how games are played in half the cities across the country. There have even been a few notorious games played in heavy winter weather, most notably the Raiders/Patriots playoff game in January 2002.
The Super Bowl has perennially been played in either domed stadiums or warm weather cities since it's played in early February every year. The NFL hasn't wanted winter weather to potentially impact the game, and with good reasons. Snow and ice impact travel and mobility of fans coming to a host city, as well as the actual field conditions for the game itself. Still, Goodell announced that Super Bowl 48 (I think Roman numerals just look stupid now) would be played in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the Giants and Jets play their home games. When he had made the original announcement, he took the obvious risk of inviting Mother Nature to affect the game, but also claimed that fans had been clamoring for this kind of Super Bowl for years.
Despite my love of watching football being played in snow and winter weather, I never liked this idea at all. Having the rest of the playoffs being played in potentially cold cities like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Baltimore, or Denver is fine. There isn't much that the NFL could do to avoid weather during January in cities such as those, and the home teams have a bit of an advantage in being used to the weather there. The home fans are also used to what the weather is like, so they know what they're getting into if their team has to host a playoff game (or more) in January. They can adequately prepare for cold and/or snow, and take an extra jacket or two if need be.
So what happens if a warm weather team has to play in Super Bowl 48? Teams in cities like Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, or San Diego aren't used to playing in freezing temperatures, and Northern Jersey is typically below 32 degrees in early February. Their play in cold weather could be affected negatively, and who would want to watch a sloppy Super Bowl? I wouldn't like watching players slip and slide in the snow, especially if the players from that team rarely ever see snow in the first place.
Consider the fans in this equation as well. Fans in those same warm weather cities aren't used to cold or snow either, so they don't know how to prepare properly either. They sure wouldn't know how to drive in such conditions either, so unless they rely on taxis or other public transportation they would have to walk for the most part. That would either get very expensive very quickly, or not be much fun at all.
Taking all those factors into account now, think about this latest potential development: The Farmers Almanac made its annual predictions of what winter 2014 will be like, and it ain't pretty.
"Pretty" may not be the right term. A blanket of snow is actually very beautiful to admire....from the comfort and warmth of one's own house. I happen to love watching the snow fall while sitting on my couch, sipping hot chocolate and watching a movie. I don't mind shoveling snow from a driveway or sidewalk. And who doesn't love a good ol' snowball fight?
The key here is that I'm talking about dealing with snow within the confines of where I live. If I'm traveling to New York or Northern Jersey because my team is in the Super Bowl, I'd have to drive up there through a potentially awful snowstorm. Then I'd have to find a place to park it in a hotel. Then I'd have to walk around the snow when I want to sight see. Then I'd have to avoid slipping on a patch of ice somewhere on the ground.
And that's before we even get to watching the game.
Oh, and don't forget - I'm used to brutal winter weather. What if fans from cities like Atlanta or San Francisco come to New York for the Super Bowl? They have no idea what they're in for. Their flights could be affected, and by the time the game actually starts on Sunday night (when it's coldest, considering the sun won't even be out!) they may be more excited to go home than watch the game.
Plus, what about the halftime show? If the snow is falling and it's 20 degrees outside, what will the NFL do with its performance at halftime? I suppose the concert could be played from an alternate location, but that would only help the fans watching from home. The fans in the stadium would be screwed.
What if the weather got to be so bad that fans would actually leave the stadium? I realize that would only happen in the most dire of circumstances, but it's happened to plenty of football games in the past. The NFL wouldn't like the idea of a half-empty stadium by the 4th quarter. There's only so much a TV broadcast can cloak by concentrating on the action on the field.
My overall point here is that I think the idea of having the Super Bowl being played in a stadium where winter weather could impact the game is a terrible idea. I thought it was a bad idea from the moment Goodell had first announced it, and if the Farmers Almanac was correct in its predictions, the worst possible outcome could happen. Such a situation would make the debacle in Dallas a couple years ago look like a minor hiccup.
I know I sound like a Daniel Downer in talking about this, but I guess in my eyes the Super Bowl was never broken in the first place. It certainly didn't need "fixing." I realize this is just an experiment for the league, but it does want its #1 media market to enjoy the exposure of hosting the Super Bowl, especially when much smaller markets like Jacksonville and Detroit have hosted Super Bowls in the past.
I only hope this doesn't mean that Denver will one day host a Super Bowl. Talk about a recipe for disaster.
The Super Bowl has perennially been played in either domed stadiums or warm weather cities since it's played in early February every year. The NFL hasn't wanted winter weather to potentially impact the game, and with good reasons. Snow and ice impact travel and mobility of fans coming to a host city, as well as the actual field conditions for the game itself. Still, Goodell announced that Super Bowl 48 (I think Roman numerals just look stupid now) would be played in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the Giants and Jets play their home games. When he had made the original announcement, he took the obvious risk of inviting Mother Nature to affect the game, but also claimed that fans had been clamoring for this kind of Super Bowl for years.
Despite my love of watching football being played in snow and winter weather, I never liked this idea at all. Having the rest of the playoffs being played in potentially cold cities like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Baltimore, or Denver is fine. There isn't much that the NFL could do to avoid weather during January in cities such as those, and the home teams have a bit of an advantage in being used to the weather there. The home fans are also used to what the weather is like, so they know what they're getting into if their team has to host a playoff game (or more) in January. They can adequately prepare for cold and/or snow, and take an extra jacket or two if need be.
So what happens if a warm weather team has to play in Super Bowl 48? Teams in cities like Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, or San Diego aren't used to playing in freezing temperatures, and Northern Jersey is typically below 32 degrees in early February. Their play in cold weather could be affected negatively, and who would want to watch a sloppy Super Bowl? I wouldn't like watching players slip and slide in the snow, especially if the players from that team rarely ever see snow in the first place.
Consider the fans in this equation as well. Fans in those same warm weather cities aren't used to cold or snow either, so they don't know how to prepare properly either. They sure wouldn't know how to drive in such conditions either, so unless they rely on taxis or other public transportation they would have to walk for the most part. That would either get very expensive very quickly, or not be much fun at all.
Taking all those factors into account now, think about this latest potential development: The Farmers Almanac made its annual predictions of what winter 2014 will be like, and it ain't pretty.
"Pretty" may not be the right term. A blanket of snow is actually very beautiful to admire....from the comfort and warmth of one's own house. I happen to love watching the snow fall while sitting on my couch, sipping hot chocolate and watching a movie. I don't mind shoveling snow from a driveway or sidewalk. And who doesn't love a good ol' snowball fight?
The key here is that I'm talking about dealing with snow within the confines of where I live. If I'm traveling to New York or Northern Jersey because my team is in the Super Bowl, I'd have to drive up there through a potentially awful snowstorm. Then I'd have to find a place to park it in a hotel. Then I'd have to walk around the snow when I want to sight see. Then I'd have to avoid slipping on a patch of ice somewhere on the ground.
And that's before we even get to watching the game.
Oh, and don't forget - I'm used to brutal winter weather. What if fans from cities like Atlanta or San Francisco come to New York for the Super Bowl? They have no idea what they're in for. Their flights could be affected, and by the time the game actually starts on Sunday night (when it's coldest, considering the sun won't even be out!) they may be more excited to go home than watch the game.
Plus, what about the halftime show? If the snow is falling and it's 20 degrees outside, what will the NFL do with its performance at halftime? I suppose the concert could be played from an alternate location, but that would only help the fans watching from home. The fans in the stadium would be screwed.
What if the weather got to be so bad that fans would actually leave the stadium? I realize that would only happen in the most dire of circumstances, but it's happened to plenty of football games in the past. The NFL wouldn't like the idea of a half-empty stadium by the 4th quarter. There's only so much a TV broadcast can cloak by concentrating on the action on the field.
My overall point here is that I think the idea of having the Super Bowl being played in a stadium where winter weather could impact the game is a terrible idea. I thought it was a bad idea from the moment Goodell had first announced it, and if the Farmers Almanac was correct in its predictions, the worst possible outcome could happen. Such a situation would make the debacle in Dallas a couple years ago look like a minor hiccup.
I know I sound like a Daniel Downer in talking about this, but I guess in my eyes the Super Bowl was never broken in the first place. It certainly didn't need "fixing." I realize this is just an experiment for the league, but it does want its #1 media market to enjoy the exposure of hosting the Super Bowl, especially when much smaller markets like Jacksonville and Detroit have hosted Super Bowls in the past.
I only hope this doesn't mean that Denver will one day host a Super Bowl. Talk about a recipe for disaster.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
2013 NFL Season Predictions Sure To Go Wrong
We're getting close to my favorite time of the year, sports-wise. The pennant chases in baseball are heating up, and football season is upon us. Once again, for the fourth straight year, here are my 10 predictions for the upcoming NFL season....
1. The Philadelphia Eagles will win the NFC East. Hear me out on this one. I know their last two seasons have been dismal, particularly their 2012 season. Andy Reid is gone, with University of Oregon coach Chip Kelly taking over. But here's the kicker stat that I keep thinking about: Since 2003, there has been at least one team every season who finished last place in its division to win the division the following year. That's not a fluky stat, and I think the Eagles stand the best chance at being this year's version of that team. Plus, every team in the NFC East beats each other up all year long, so 9 wins could be enough to win it and host a playoff game. The team has enough key pieces in Vick, McCoy, and Jackson on offense to put points on the board, and the defense can still play with the other offenses in the division.
2. The Miami Dolphins will make the playoffs somehow. I honestly think the Dolphins have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC East, but even if they don't they will snag at least a Wild Card spot. Ryan Tannehill looks like the real deal, and having Mike Wallace to throw to will give the Dolphins enough offensive boost to win a few key games (even though I think Wallace is overrated as a receiver). I expect them to give the Patriots the first true competition in the division in years.
3. Tom Brady will throw for his fewest touchdown passes since 2009. Speaking of the Patriots, I am way down on them this year, for obvious reasons that have affected their offense. With Wes Welker departed for Denver and Aaron Hernandez facing all kinds of legal trouble, the key receiver is Rob Gronkowski, and there's no telling when he'll be healthy for the season. Do the likes of Danny Amendola (an injury risk in his own right), Aaron Dobson, Julian Edelman, and/or Michael Jenkins really intimidate defensive backs across the league? The Patriots will still likely win at least 10 games this season since two of the three other teams in their division are bottomfeeders of the league, but I expect them to struggle by their standards and also rely on their running game more since their receivers are much weaker than they have been in years.
4. The Baltimore Ravens will break the 1984 Chicago Bears' single season team sacks record. One of the reasons why I've been looking forward to this season is for football talking heads to shut up about the turnover the Ravens had since January. They kept talking about the Ravens losing the likes of Ray Lewis, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe, and Ed Reed on their defense, saying those players can't be replaced (Mind you, they also loved to rant over the last few years how Lewis and Reed were also shells of their former selves, which I would say contradicts the previous statement). So the Ravens chose to revamp their front seven and added Chris Canty, Marcus Spears, Daryl Smith, and Elvis Dumervil, on top of drafting nose tackle Brandon Williams and linebacker Arthur Brown. Haloti Ngata will now move back to his native position of nose tackle and rotate with Williams, and Terrell Suggs will rush opposing quarterbacks opposite Dumervil on the other side. The 1984 Bears currently hold the record for most sacks in a single season with 74, and I think the Ravens will break that record with their revamped line this year.
5. The Oakland Raiders have a legitimate shot at going 0-16. I made a similar prediction back in 2010 about the Browns after looking over their schedule for that season, and I came away with a similar feeling about the Raiders this year. Their nondivisional opponents include the AFC South and NFC East, which means they'll face teams like the Texans, Colts, Titans, Eagles, Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys, and I wouldn't expect the Raiders to beat any of those teams. In fact, their game in Week 2 is home against the Jaguars, and if they don't win that game I don't think they have another winnable game on their schedule until Week 14 against the Jets. Even if they do manage to win a game or two this season, I expect them to wind up with the first overall pick in next year's draft.
6. The Indianapolis Colts will steal the AFC South away from the Houston Texans. The Texans have been on the cusp the last couple seasons, but they haven't managed to win more than a single game in the playoffs at all. They were in the driver's seat for the #1 seed in the playoffs with about three weeks to go in the regular season, and then they got sloppy by mid-December. I think something similar will happen this year, only this time it will cost them the division and a home playoff game in January. The Colts and Texans face off twice in the second half of the season, including a very important match up in Week 15 in Indianapolis.
7. Matt Ryan will be the league MVP. I think Matt Ryan is going to have a career year, even after getting his big contract this offseason. The NFC South is a pretty tough division, and while I don't think the Falcons win 13 games again like they did last year, they'll still come out on top. I actually thought Ryan was fairly overrated for most of his career to date, but I've come to think of him as a really good quarterback in the league, and he'll get a whole lot more exposure throughout the season.
8. Larry Fitzgerald will be the Comeback Player of the Year. This prediction sounds a bit weird since players on the comeback usually are recovering from injury, but Fitz hasn't had any significant injuries at any point during his career. His issue has been a lack of a decent quarterback on his team since Kurt Warner retired a few years ago. Now that he has (at the very least) a competent quarterback in Carson Palmer, he'll return to the kinds of numbers he was putting up during the hey days of his career, and be worth drafting in fantasy football again.
9. Adrian Peterson will be the first running back in history to rush for 2000 yards in back-to-back seasons. Until somebody figures out how to stop Adrian Peterson, I see no reason why he'd slow down or step backwards from where he left off at the end of last season. He's a special kind of running back and offensive threat, and the kind of player that almost any NFL fan would like to see win a championship before the end of his career.
10. The Baltimore Ravens will repeat as Super Bowl champs and defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 48. I know, I know. Such a stinking homer pick. There is a bit of logic to my thinking though, so roll with me for a moment before dismissing my prediction. I've already talked about how the Patriots are down. In addition to the Patriots, the Steelers are down as well, the Bengals need Andy Dalton to beat the likes of Tom Brady and/or Peyton Manning, and the Texans need Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to avoid getting hurt. That leaves the Broncos in the AFC as the only real rivals to the Ravens, and Ravens have already shown they can beat the Broncos on the road in the playoffs last year. I don't think the Ravens will steamroll through the regular season (I think they finish with 11 wins), but the team as a whole looks better than last year's Super Bowl champs.
Meanwhile over in the NFC, there are just as many contenders who look weaker than they were last year, namely the Packers and 49ers. Seattle has Percy Harvin recovering from surgery and will have him back by December to make their playoff push. I expect them to beat Atlanta in the NFC title game before traveling to New York to face the Ravens.
And there you have it. If history is any indicator, I probably will only have 3 or 4 of these predictions come true.
1. The Philadelphia Eagles will win the NFC East. Hear me out on this one. I know their last two seasons have been dismal, particularly their 2012 season. Andy Reid is gone, with University of Oregon coach Chip Kelly taking over. But here's the kicker stat that I keep thinking about: Since 2003, there has been at least one team every season who finished last place in its division to win the division the following year. That's not a fluky stat, and I think the Eagles stand the best chance at being this year's version of that team. Plus, every team in the NFC East beats each other up all year long, so 9 wins could be enough to win it and host a playoff game. The team has enough key pieces in Vick, McCoy, and Jackson on offense to put points on the board, and the defense can still play with the other offenses in the division.
2. The Miami Dolphins will make the playoffs somehow. I honestly think the Dolphins have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC East, but even if they don't they will snag at least a Wild Card spot. Ryan Tannehill looks like the real deal, and having Mike Wallace to throw to will give the Dolphins enough offensive boost to win a few key games (even though I think Wallace is overrated as a receiver). I expect them to give the Patriots the first true competition in the division in years.
3. Tom Brady will throw for his fewest touchdown passes since 2009. Speaking of the Patriots, I am way down on them this year, for obvious reasons that have affected their offense. With Wes Welker departed for Denver and Aaron Hernandez facing all kinds of legal trouble, the key receiver is Rob Gronkowski, and there's no telling when he'll be healthy for the season. Do the likes of Danny Amendola (an injury risk in his own right), Aaron Dobson, Julian Edelman, and/or Michael Jenkins really intimidate defensive backs across the league? The Patriots will still likely win at least 10 games this season since two of the three other teams in their division are bottomfeeders of the league, but I expect them to struggle by their standards and also rely on their running game more since their receivers are much weaker than they have been in years.
4. The Baltimore Ravens will break the 1984 Chicago Bears' single season team sacks record. One of the reasons why I've been looking forward to this season is for football talking heads to shut up about the turnover the Ravens had since January. They kept talking about the Ravens losing the likes of Ray Lewis, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe, and Ed Reed on their defense, saying those players can't be replaced (Mind you, they also loved to rant over the last few years how Lewis and Reed were also shells of their former selves, which I would say contradicts the previous statement). So the Ravens chose to revamp their front seven and added Chris Canty, Marcus Spears, Daryl Smith, and Elvis Dumervil, on top of drafting nose tackle Brandon Williams and linebacker Arthur Brown. Haloti Ngata will now move back to his native position of nose tackle and rotate with Williams, and Terrell Suggs will rush opposing quarterbacks opposite Dumervil on the other side. The 1984 Bears currently hold the record for most sacks in a single season with 74, and I think the Ravens will break that record with their revamped line this year.
5. The Oakland Raiders have a legitimate shot at going 0-16. I made a similar prediction back in 2010 about the Browns after looking over their schedule for that season, and I came away with a similar feeling about the Raiders this year. Their nondivisional opponents include the AFC South and NFC East, which means they'll face teams like the Texans, Colts, Titans, Eagles, Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys, and I wouldn't expect the Raiders to beat any of those teams. In fact, their game in Week 2 is home against the Jaguars, and if they don't win that game I don't think they have another winnable game on their schedule until Week 14 against the Jets. Even if they do manage to win a game or two this season, I expect them to wind up with the first overall pick in next year's draft.
6. The Indianapolis Colts will steal the AFC South away from the Houston Texans. The Texans have been on the cusp the last couple seasons, but they haven't managed to win more than a single game in the playoffs at all. They were in the driver's seat for the #1 seed in the playoffs with about three weeks to go in the regular season, and then they got sloppy by mid-December. I think something similar will happen this year, only this time it will cost them the division and a home playoff game in January. The Colts and Texans face off twice in the second half of the season, including a very important match up in Week 15 in Indianapolis.
7. Matt Ryan will be the league MVP. I think Matt Ryan is going to have a career year, even after getting his big contract this offseason. The NFC South is a pretty tough division, and while I don't think the Falcons win 13 games again like they did last year, they'll still come out on top. I actually thought Ryan was fairly overrated for most of his career to date, but I've come to think of him as a really good quarterback in the league, and he'll get a whole lot more exposure throughout the season.
8. Larry Fitzgerald will be the Comeback Player of the Year. This prediction sounds a bit weird since players on the comeback usually are recovering from injury, but Fitz hasn't had any significant injuries at any point during his career. His issue has been a lack of a decent quarterback on his team since Kurt Warner retired a few years ago. Now that he has (at the very least) a competent quarterback in Carson Palmer, he'll return to the kinds of numbers he was putting up during the hey days of his career, and be worth drafting in fantasy football again.
9. Adrian Peterson will be the first running back in history to rush for 2000 yards in back-to-back seasons. Until somebody figures out how to stop Adrian Peterson, I see no reason why he'd slow down or step backwards from where he left off at the end of last season. He's a special kind of running back and offensive threat, and the kind of player that almost any NFL fan would like to see win a championship before the end of his career.
10. The Baltimore Ravens will repeat as Super Bowl champs and defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 48. I know, I know. Such a stinking homer pick. There is a bit of logic to my thinking though, so roll with me for a moment before dismissing my prediction. I've already talked about how the Patriots are down. In addition to the Patriots, the Steelers are down as well, the Bengals need Andy Dalton to beat the likes of Tom Brady and/or Peyton Manning, and the Texans need Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to avoid getting hurt. That leaves the Broncos in the AFC as the only real rivals to the Ravens, and Ravens have already shown they can beat the Broncos on the road in the playoffs last year. I don't think the Ravens will steamroll through the regular season (I think they finish with 11 wins), but the team as a whole looks better than last year's Super Bowl champs.
Meanwhile over in the NFC, there are just as many contenders who look weaker than they were last year, namely the Packers and 49ers. Seattle has Percy Harvin recovering from surgery and will have him back by December to make their playoff push. I expect them to beat Atlanta in the NFC title game before traveling to New York to face the Ravens.
And there you have it. If history is any indicator, I probably will only have 3 or 4 of these predictions come true.
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