2011 NFL Predictions

Football? We can has football this season??

I'm both relieved and excited that football will be back this year. I really didn't expect the labor negotiations to finish in time, but the season will go forward as scheduled. So once again, here are my predictions for the upcoming season...

1. The Detroit Lions will have a winning record this season. They were the laughing stock of the NFL for nearly a decade. But these are not the 2008 Lions who went 0-16. They have an elite receiver in Calvin Johnson. They have a strong running game. Their defensive line is just downright scary with Vanden Bosch, Suh, and Fairley. Matthew Stafford is the real deal assuming he can stay healthy. This group will win at least 9 games this season. They have a shot at 10 wins and a potential playoff berth if they get a lucky break or two in some swing games, but I think their chances at making the playoffs will be next season after they've had a year playing together.

2. The Houston Texans will win the AFC South. I had picked the Texans to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last year, and they stunk it up down the stretch. Knowing their secondary was their Achilles' heel, they signed a cornerback and safety to beef it up. The rest of their team is complete. Considering how wide open the AFC will be this year, the Texans have a real shot to go deep in the playoffs. Now you may ask, "Wait, what about the Colts?" Well....

3. The Colts will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2003. I had a funny feeling about the Colts' chances to make the playoffs again this year well before the last couple days. The team as a whole is getting old, especially Peyton. Now the odds are he'll miss at least the first couple games of the season with his neck injury, and since he's unable to practice, he'll be rusty after he finally does get to the field. The Colts will dig themselves into a hole early in the season, and could still potentially finish the season on a semi-strong note, but I don't see them finishing better than 8-8 this year.

4. Ray Rice will have an MVP-caliber season. This may sound like a bit of a homer pick, but I have several reasons to back my claim on this one. First, Rice is in a contract year. He's going to want to cash in big come this offseason. Players in skill positions like running back will want a major payday for their services (see: Chris Johnson), so he's going to punch it extra hard this season. Second, he's got Vonta Leach blocking for him at fullback. Leach is one of those great players you never hear about. The reason why Arian Foster led the NFL in rushing last year was because he had Leach blocking for him. All Leach does is block, block, block, and block. He's like a fifth offensive lineman. Lastly - and this is just a gut feeling - every running back has one crazy season in his career. Last year it was Peyton Hillis and Arian Foster. Before that it was Chris Johnson. Further back was the likes of LaDanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander. This year is Ray Rice's year. He's a fourth-year back with plenty of gas in his tank, and I really see him exploding on the field. The only problem is he won't be the MVP of the league because...

5. Philip Rivers will be the league MVP this season. Rivers is one of those guys who should be a household name, but ask random people on the street who the best QBs in the league are, and you'll get answers like Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, and maybe Rodgers. Those five guys all have one thing in common, and that is they've each won at least one Super Bowl. Rivers hasn't, but I think it's more because he plays in San Diego that people tend to forget about him. He's quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the past three seasons, and I really think he should've gotten more consideration for the MVP last year than he did. This year will be his year when he goes over the top. While we're talking quarterbacks here...

6. Sam Bradford will not have a sophomore slump. There have been many rookies who have had stand out rookie seasons, but their second year in the league they take a step back. Bradford will not be that kind of player. The NFC West is a pretty awful division, and the Rams should've won it last year. He's needed more receivers to throw to, and while their wide receivers don't have any one guy to stretch the field, he will lead the team to a division title.

7. The Miami Dolphins will be in line for Andrew Luck next year. This is one of those two-edged sword predictions, if you will. The Dolphins will have a really terrible season this year (I see them finishing with 3 wins), but that will put them in the driver's seat for drafting their first real franchise quarterback since Dan Marino. Head coach Tony Sparano won't likely be around for Luck, but a total regime change will be good for the team as a whole. They'll still be stuck in the division with the Jets and Patriots though.

8. The NFC South will be the best division in football. Every team in this division is better than it was last year. While Carolina won't be in any hunt to win the division or make the playoffs any time soon, it wouldn't surprise me at all if any of the other three teams won the division this year. Most other divisions have one or two really good teams and couple bottomfeeders, but this one has three strong teams and one on the rise. I wouldn't be that surprised if the final winner of the division finished with 10 wins this year.

9. Someone will pick off the Eagles in the playoffs. Oh, the Eagles are my hometown team. I want to see them win. If Vick ever does win a Super Bowl, his detractors will have to shut up about his football skills if nothing else. But that won't happen this year. Their secondary looks ridiculous with Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie, Asante Samuel, and Nnamdi Asomugha running the show. Their receivers are solid, and they have two strong running backs. But their offensive line is showing signs of being a weakness, and you can pretty much pencil Vick in for missing at least 4 games a season due to injury. The Packers, Saints, or Falcons can rattle Vick and cause a couple turnovers, leading to putting points on the board and force the Eagles to fight from behind. And if the Eagles do get bounced in the playoffs....

10. The Green Bay Packers will repeat as Super Bowl champions. Don't look now, but the NFC is back, kids. It's already won three of the past four Super Bowls, and the Packers winning back-to-back titles will make it four of five. Most teams only enjoy a Super Bowl for about five minutes before they realize they have a target on their backs, but this year's Packers team will actually be better than last year's winners. They'll get Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley back. They've got the best young linebacker in the game in Clay Matthews. Aaron Rodgers is already one of the top three quarterbacks in the game, and there's no reason to think he can't be the single best QB overall.

Just Like Old Times

The last two months were mostly spent prepping for my move back to Baltimore. I only allowed myself so much free time, especially over the last couple weeks in order to pack and throw out anything I didn't want to keep. My big move back to Baltimore was scheduled for Saturday, and when I checked the weather reports my heart sank when I saw scattered thunderstorms were expected from Thursday through the rest of the weekend.

Great. Just great.

As if all that wasn't enough, my birthday was Thursday. I'm not going to sit here and make things sound like I can never enjoy my birthday, but this whole scenario mirrored my move from Baltimore to Virginia in the first place. Fortunately, two things made a major difference this time around. First, I had real solid help from my sister and brother-in-law to help me load the U-Haul in Virginia and unload it at my place in Baltimore. Second, my cell phone was blowing up all day on my birthday with happy birthday text messages. I gotta say, I'm flattered and humbled from getting something as simple as a happy birthday text from a friend or family member.

So I'm driving home Thursday from work to Virginia, and I hit an absolute wall of water, complete with hail stones. Hail stones! In August! Since when does this happen during the summer?

Friday was more of the same. By this point I was dreading driving the truck back and forth from Virginia and hauling all my clothing and furniture around. I was praying that somehow the weather holds up for the big move Saturday.

My prayers were answered. Saturday the skies cleared up, and even though it was a fairly hot day, the move went smoothly overall. I got all the furniture and belongings that I had planned on, and my bedroom was assembled by the end of the day. There were some loose ends leftover in my old place, but I had planned on that all along and will clear that up later this week.

Overall, it's great being back in Baltimore. I'm living with my best friend in the city again, and I'm a whole lot closer to the rest of my friends and family in the area. Oh, there's plenty of drama going on among my family, far too much for me to write about here, but the good outweighs the bad. Life can now get back to normal.

This Is What You Call Progressive?

I grew up watching Sesame Street as a kid. One of my mom's favorite stories about me was when I was three years old, we were shopping in a K-Mart one day, and suddenly she noticed while walking around I had disappeared. She flipped into Super Panic Mode and had the customer service desk page me on the loud speakers so she could find me.

As it had turned out, I wandered off to the TV section to watch Sesame Street. I sat down on the floor and turned the channel to PBS and had a grand time minding my own business, not thinking in the slightest about what my mom was going through trying to find me. Life obviously went on, and everything was fine.

Two of my personal favorite characters on the show were Bert and Ernie. They were best friends and played off one another all the time. Sure, they weren't Grover or Oscar the Grouch, but they were still fun to watch. Over the last decade or so a recurring subject has come up involving gay and human rights groups petitioning for Bert and Ernie to become a "couple." The thinking is that having fairly iconic characters like these two would be a positive influence on children to embrace gay couples in the real world. In the last week I've read several articles online discussing the concept and how it's supposedly being pushed harder now than ever for PBS to make the change.

The subject is a sensitive one, so I'm going to do my best to refrain from being political about everything. For starters, I'm not getting into the morality of homosexual relationships at all here. That's not really the issue. What really puzzles me about this is these human rights groups are pushing PBS to suddenly evolve two characters who are Muppets. They've been part of the show for decades, and I suppose the idea is that because they're so popular already, kids would likely not think twice about them being a couple since they already know them so well.

It doesn't matter what any human rights group's logic on the subject is, really. It doesn't change the fact that we're talking about freaking Muppets here! Why are we having this discussion? Furthermore, what exactly does making Bert and Ernie gay add to them as characters? Does it make the two of them more progressive in nature? The whole idea is completely arbitrary - why specifically pick Bert and Ernie? Because they're already friends? Why not Big Bird and Snuffleuppagus? Oh wait, you're right - that'd involve an eight-foot canary and some kind of furry elephant becoming a couple. How silly.

If human rights groups really wanted to petition PBS to include a gay couple on Sesame Street, what's wrong with introducing a couple fresh to the show? Have them meet everyone else already on the show, and let everyone welcome them in with open arms. The same point is made, and would likely be even made more strongly by showing everyone treating the gay couple with respect and friendship right off the bat. Simple questions posed by the other characters on the show could help the kids better understand gay couples and their lifestyles, just as the show has done in the past with regards to subjects like racism.

I've long been on the fence about the subject of gay marriage. It doesn't affect how I conduct my life at all. When plenty of heterosexual couples already do more than enough to destroy the sanctity of marriage through cheating and physical abuse, singling out gay marriage as the nail in the coffin of the concept of family looks pretty absurd and petty. What I don't like is the idea of making an arbitrary change like coupling off Bert and Ernie in the name of educating kids when it's a completely unnecessary change.

A Man of the Cloth

It's official: I am now an ordained minister.

I'm more than a little amazed and disturbed at how easy it is to simply buy an ordination online. Granted, I can only legally conduct weddings, baptisms, and funerals, but if I wanted to shell out another hundred bucks I could be able to do a whole lot more, including starting my own church. I doubt the "Church of Ray" has a memorable ring to the name, and even though I've always been perfectly comfortable speaking in front of large crowds, leading a group of people is another thing entirely.

I still fully intend on turning this option into a small side business, including a website promoting my services available (I guess this is my shameless moment of self-promotion talking about this) and fee charges. I'm not sure what other fringe benefits there are to calling oneself a minister aside from things like being tax-exempt, but I'm sure I'll find out soon enough.

From now on, you can refer to me as "Reverend Ray."

Pop Quiz, Hotshot

Your younger sister's wedding is coming up in less than two months. She texts you, asking when you'll be around again so you can get fitted for the suit you'll need for the wedding. You reply by saying you'll be in town next weekend for a birthday party as well as her wedding shower, assuming it's common knowledge for everyone involved, including her. She answers she doesn't know anything about a shower next weekend and that you may have inadvertently revealed a surprise. What do you do?

WHAT. DO. YOU. DO?

If you're me, you reply with a single word that isn't quite suitable to be reprinted here. Obviously my naivte got the best of me last night because I had no idea that wedding showers are almost always done as surprise parties. I knew they could be done as surprises, but in talking with my mom and my other sister about it, it didn't sound like this was private information. Fortunately, my moment of knuckleheadedness (not sure if that's a word, but for the purposes of this post it will be) was kept to a minimum for two reasons. First, my sister promised to look surprised at her shower next weekend. Second, I didn't say exactly when or where the party will be, so she might still be caught off guard a little when the surprise is revealed. And I'm sure after it's all said and done we'll be able to laugh at everything as well.

Can you tell I'm a single guy who hasn't had any real experience with planning weddings?

Goodbye, Newman

Thursday was a very sad day.

My sister and brother-in-law have an English bulldog named Newman. He's the most confused, lost, and aloof animal I've ever known, and yet he's also the most lovable animal as well. He's been a part of our family for the past five years, and he's made dog lovers out of everyone in the group.

This past weekend my sister called me to tell me Newman wasn't doing well. She said last week he hadn't been his normal super friendly and sociable self. He hadn't been eating or want to go outside at all. Something was clearly wrong with him, so she took him to a neurologist for an examination.

All our worst fears were confirmed when an MRI revealed a brain tumor. The doctors said surgery was possible, but there was no guarantee they'd be able to get everything, or that the tumor wouldn't come back in a year. Obviously the news devastated us all, but no one more than my sister and brother-in-law. They had introduced Newman to us all several years ago, and I couldn't picture what life would have been like without him.

Now we'll have no choice but to go on without him. My sister had originally hoped to give him drugs to make him more comfortable for the time being until they could go forward with his surgery after her wedding in September, but she called me last night in tears. She said his condition was deteriorating quickly and she couldn't bear watching him in such pain. I had plans to visit her, my niece, and Newman this weekend so I could see him at least one more time before things got much worse for him, but it wasn't meant to be. She said she had to put him to sleep today so he wouldn't suffer anymore.

I quickly broke down on the phone with her. She felt awful for putting him down at all, but I immediately told her she was doing the right thing. Newman loved everyone in our family unconditionally, and we all loved him back. As tough as her decision was, it was the right choice. I told her we'd use this weekend to celebrate Newman's life and reminisce over our favorite memories of him.

I already know my favorite Newman story. Last year we got together for Mother's Day, and I brought a collection of pastries for breakfast while dinner was being cooked. Both my sister and I were munching on a pastry, and Newman had a taste for all things - both dog food and human food. My sister didn't give in to him, so he saw I hadn't yet finished my pastry. He walked right in front of me and knelt down, shoving his face between my legs. If Newman could speak, he probably would've said something along the lines of, "Wow, that looks tasty. You're going to give me a bite of that, right?"

I simply looked down at him and said, "Oh, NOW I'm your best friend, huh?" And no, I didn't give him a bite of my pastry.

It's funny how animals can have such effects on people. I never disliked dogs growing up, but I was never a pet lover in general either. Spending the last five years with Newman as part of the family has completely changed my perspective on pets. In fact, three years ago my family got together Christmas morning for family photographs, and my dad insisted that the family photos weren't complete without Newman included in them (his exact words: "No Newman? NO GOOD!").

There will most certainly be a void in our family without Newman. He brightened any room he was in, and simply watching him walk around made us all laugh. My niece is far too young to have any attachment to him, so I hope that in time my sister and brother-in-law will get another dog for her to play with.

Goodbye, Newman. I asked God to feed you bananas since you liked them so much. You took great care of us, and we'll always remember you.

Your Federal Tax Dollars At Work

I am now three days into my new job, and I have to do a short recap of how my week has gone so far. This won't be a terribly long post (at least relative to some of my other posts), but I had to talk about my new gig a little.

I wrapped up orientation today and got to meet several of my new coworkers on my team. One of the first questions a woman on my team had asked me was whether I followed football, so naturally my response was, "Religiously." We're going to get along really well.

But that's not the fun news. My first day there I found out my department's summer picnic is Thursday, so tomorrow I get to come to work in a t-shirt, shorts, and flip flops. I only have to be in the office for a couple hours before we head to the cookout. Since I don't have any network access yet, I can't exactly do anything while in the office anyway, so I get paid to sit around and play on my phone before heading to the picnic.

The real kicker is that my department has been packing up their work and preparing to move to another building down the street. Almost everything is sitting in boxes in between cubicles, and the movers are taking everything Friday, so our department will have off Friday, including me. Bottom line, I'm getting paid for a full week when I'll barely be at work for three and a half days. If that's not a sweet deal, I don't know what is.

Can every week at my new job be like this one? That would rock.