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Tuesday, March 18, 2014

2014 MLB Predictions Sure to Go Wrong

You'd never know it if you looked out a window in the Baltimore area today, but spring starts this week.  With spring also comes the return of baseball, and there will be much rejoicing at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.  Of course, that also means another round of my predictions that are bound to be seen as laughable by season's end.

1. The Yankees will miss the postseason for the second straight year.  Hank Steinbrenner's head will likely explode if this were to happen.  If the Yankees did fail to play October baseball again, it would be the first time in over 20 years such a feat occurred (heads across the league office and TV networks would also likely explode).  My argument is based largely on the Yankees' lineup; it's a mishmash of veterans way past their prime (e.g. Brian Roberts, Vernon Wells, Brian McCann, Ichiro, and Carlos Beltran) and a bunch of guys who don't generally hit for power (e.g. Jacoby Ellsbury, Derek Jeter, and Eduardo Nunez).  The main power bats in the lineup will be Mark Teixeira and the aforementioned McCann and Beltran, which is a far cry from some of their lineups over the last decade.  The only way they can possibly try competing is if they change their philosophy to play small ball to generate runs, which I don't see as a likely switch to happen.

2. The Orioles will win the AL East. Homer pick alert!!  Yes, my heart is getting a little bit of the best of me, but compare the Orioles lineup and rotation to the rest of their division.  Their offense is arguably the best, and their pitching staff is probably third in the division behind Tampa and Boston.  Dan Duquette shopped wisely in the offseason by adding Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, and if Jimenez is anything like he was in the second half of last season, the Orioles' pitching will be markedly better overall.

3. The Phillies will have a firesale come July.  If this were 2006, the Phillies would have one of the best teams in baseball.  Unfortunately, their lineup is much like the Yankees, filled with veterans well past their prime.  Chase Utley and Cliff Lee will probably be the most valuable trade chips for Ruben Amaro to rebuild the franchise, and they've already put Jimmy Rollins on the trading block.  Who would be interested in acquiring any of their aging vets and how they'd work out the remaining dollars on some of those huge contracts are the million dollar questions.

4. The Angels will still finish under .500.  The Angels are without question the most disappointing team over the past two seasons.  They managed to finish 2012 strong and only missed the Wild Card by 4 games, but last year was an atrocity that nearly cost Mike Scioscia his job.  Texas has rebuilt itself, the A's will still be great, and Seattle will be improved.  The only reason the Angels will avoid finishing in last place is because Houston is in their division.

5. Danny Salazar will have a breakout year.  Full disclosure: I never heard of this kid until after I had accidentally drafted him in fantasy baseball.  I was ready to drop him right away until I did a little reading and research on him.  He's one of the Indians' top pitching prospects, and was called up late last season as the Indians made their run for the playoffs.  His fastball has already been clocked in the high 90s, and that's supposedly not even his best stuff.  He probably won't throw more than 160 innings or so this year since he's so young, but he'll be a household name by the end of the season.

6. None of last year's Wild Card teams will return to the playoffs in 2014.  And yes, I realize that includes the Rays and Pirates.  The Pirates were last year's darling team, finally breaking a streak of over 20 years without finishing over .500.  They will be this year's version of the 2013 Orioles: a team who is in the hunt until close to the end, but still find themselves on the outside looking in.  As for the Rays, I don't have that much faith in their offense being able to consistently put up enough runs on the board to support their incredible pitching staff.  I also expect the Indians and Reds to slightly regress from last year.

7. The Diamondbacks will be the upstart team of the season.  Arizona finished at .500 each of the past two seasons, and they lost their best starter in Patrick Corbin to the dreaded Tommy John surgery for the year.  However, Paul Goldschmidt is going to put this team on his back for the bulk of the season, and lead them into October.  The Dodgers will still win the NL West by a healthy margin, but the Diamondbacks will snag one of the Wild Cards.

8. Yu Darvish and Gio Gonzalez will be this year's Cy Young winners. Both guys have been incredibly dominant over the last couple years, though Gonzalez has flown under the radar somewhat in his first two seasons with the Nationals.  I expect both the Rangers and Nationals to play some October baseball, with their rotations anchored by these two guys.

9. Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt will be the league MVPs.  Neither pick here is terribly original or surprising, especially in the case of Trout.  They also each finished second in MVP voting in their respective leagues last year, so jumping up a spot won't be that much of a leap.  Still, Mike Trout will finally win the award he came so close to winning each of the last two years, and Arizona will look like a bunch of thieves for signing Goldschmidt to a six-year deal prior to last season.

10. The Oakland A's will defeat the Atlanta Braves in 6 games in the World Series.  My World Series pick is already in serious jeopardy considering both teams have at least one starting pitcher hurt; the Braves already have Kris Medlen headed for Tommy John surgery and the A's are losing Jarrod Parker for the same reason.  On top of that, the Braves' Brandon Beachy may well need Tommy John surgery also, and the A's will be without A.J. Griffin for at least the start of the season.  I'm still sticking with it though, mostly out of stubbornness and clinging to a small hope that both teams will make a play for a starter or two by the trade deadline.  I'm also counting on the A's Sonny Gray and the Braves' Julio Teheran to have big years.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Follow Up

Some good news regarding my mom's condition came through last week.  To recap, while she was in the hospital a neurologist had ordered both a CAT scan and MRI.  Both tests were negative, and the doctor had wanted my mom to come back in a few days for an EEG.  If there was anything to find, the EEG would show it.

Within a few days after being dismissed from the hospital, my mom started feeling quite a bit better, save a few fleeting moments of dizziness.  Signs were pointing towards her seizure being a fluke at that point, but we still wanted to find out the cause if at all possible.

I took her to her appointment, which was nearly a week after her hospital stay.  The appointment took nearly two hours, and she emerged wearing this headdress of sorts that was connected by a tube to a battery pack.  She had to wear this unit for the entire weekend, and any headaches or dizzy spells would be recorded for further evaluation.

I stayed with her most of the day before having to leave.  She wanted to be on her own for the weekend to see if she could take care of herself after spending the past week with my sisters and me taking care of her.  By Sunday night, she had removed the unit and was going to return it the next morning.  She told me she had no symptoms at all, and felt pretty close to her normal self.

On Thursday she was due for her test results.  The EEG came back negative as well, which all but confirmed the seizure was a fluke after all.  The cause was still a mystery, but we're out of the woods.  My mom is still not allowed to drive for the next 10 weeks, but it's a small nuisance to make sure this doesn't become a recurring problem.

The first 24 hours or so after her seizure was initially very scary.  My mom has been in fairly good health her entire life, and she's even taken measures to improve her health by getting some regular exercise and switching to a predominantly gluten-free diet.  We're all relieved that her condition isn't debilitating or long-term.  Still, we're all lucky she was able to get in the hospital as quickly as she did, or else this post would have a very different tone to it.

Friday, March 7, 2014

Too Close For Comfort

I've been sitting and stirring over writing about what happened late last week, unsure over whether I'd talk about it on here or what I'd have to say about it.  Blogging has been very therapeutic for me since I started writing over 4 years ago, so I figured I might as well discuss it here.

I got a call last Friday night into Saturday morning around 2:30 AM from my sister.  I knew something had to be up just from the sight of her name on my caller ID.  Before I even had answered the phone, I was a little nervous about what this was about.

She said our mom had some kind of seizure that night and was already in the hospital.  At that point, there was also the possibility she had had a stroke, though no one was sure what exactly she had experienced.  To say I was shocked and unprepared for that kind of news would be an understatement.  My sister went on to say that she and her boyfriend were going to head to the hospital to stay with her the rest of the night.  My mom was already set to have both a CAT scan and MRI, though neither had been performed just yet.

We hung up, and I laid in bed wondering what to do next.  Do I get dressed now and head to the hospital as well?  Should I wait until morning?

I wound up trying to go back to sleep and would go to the hospital in a few hours.  Going back to sleep was almost out of the question since my mind was racing in all kinds of directions.

At that point, I was somewhat hoping my mom had a seizure instead of a stroke.  It felt like the lesser of two evils, considering recovering from a seizure is a much less daunting task than doing so from a stroke.  I've known people who have dealt with seizures since childhood, and they're able to live fairly normal lives.  Strokes can be much more severe (from the little that I know of them), and I didn't want to think about what kind of effect a future stroke could have on my mom.

By morning, I called my sister back to check up on her. She was quite frazzled to say the least, and even got pretty emotional over the sight of our mother laying in a hospital bed.  Mom had already had her CAT scan by then, and the doctors found no abnormalities on her.  The MRI was coming later, so we had to play the waiting game on that.

In the interests of relative brevity, I'll jump ahead a bit to her MRI.  Those results didn't show anything either, and a neurologist examined my mom as well.  All signs and symptoms had pointed towards seizure, and my mom had talked about feeling dizzy at times over the previous few weeks.  The doctor wondered about the possibility that my mom had experiences seizures during her sleep and woke up not even aware of what may have happened overnight.

My mom was discharged from the hospital on Sunday, and this week my sisters and I have taken shifts over watching her and taking care of her.  I'm on duty as I write this, and later today I have to take her in for an appointment to conduct an EEG.  My mom is in much better condition now than she was on Saturday, and we're more concerned about determining the cause of the seizure than anything else now.

Still, this entire ordeal got me thinking about something from a much more macro perspective than the immediate fact that my mom was in the hospital.  As children - and to our parents, we are all still children even once we become grown adults - it's easy to think our parents will always be around.  We may even take them for granted in that regard, possibly thinking of them as immortal.   After the first phone call with my sister, my mind started to picture what life might be like without my mother.  Those thoughts had scared me more than most anything else I had thought about in a very long time.

It's probably fairly selfish of me to think that I'm not willing to part with my mom yet.  I have several friends who have lost at least one of their parents, and they've been able to keep on living after the grieving period.  My mom is still fairly young though; she just turned 59 in January.  She's even been fairly conscious of her health prior to this incident, so she's been eating healthier foods and getting regular exercise.  She's worked on adding years on her life, and frankly I hope that I don't have to think about the idea of losing her again for a very long time.

During my second year of college, I took a sociology class.  One thing that has stuck with me from that class nearly 15 years later was an exercise my professor had conducted one day.  He told us all we would have to write down an instinctive response as an answer to a question about a scenario, and we wouldn't have time to think about what we were going to say.  The scenario was this: You're stuck on a life raft with your mother, spouse, and child after your boat out in the ocean had capsized.  Suddenly, a storm comes in, and waves rock the raft back and forth.  Everyone in the boat is thrown clear, and you have only enough time to save one of the three other people in your boat.  Write down which person who you're going to save.

My professor yelled out, "WRITE IT!"

Everyone in the class was obviously startled, and my instinctive answer was "child."  That was the most popular answer in the class by far, but once my professor had tallied up all the numbers he pointed out something very interesting.  In our country, our natural response would be save the child since the kid has virtually his or her entire life to live.  However, in other places across the globe - especially the Far East - the most popular answer to that question by far would be mom.  The logic behind it is in such a dire situation, a person could theoretically marry again and/or have more children later in life, but an individual is only ever going to have one mother.  A mother - or father, for that matter - can't be replaced.

I suppose I sound like a mamma's boy in writing this post, and to some extent that's true.  But when I think about what may have happened had one or two details of this story been different, I don't mind being a mamma's boy.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Something Must Be in the Water

'Tis the season for breakups, apparently.

Since last fall, no fewer than five of my friends who had been in serious relationships of various lengths of time found themselves suddenly single.  They included, but not limited to, my ex-roommate, my new roommate, one of my closest buddies (who has quickly become my wingman and vice versa), and the latest addition the list, that being another buddy of mine who was supposed to get married last fall.  Unfortunately he lost his job and had to push back wedding plans until sometime in 2014.  This past weekend I found out he and his fiance had been dealing with issues for the past two months, and officially called it off earlier this month.

What is going on here, exactly?

I've never been in a circle of friends where so many breakups happened in such a short period of time.  There's an element of solidarity to appreciate in knowing I'm not the only one who's had to deal with a longterm relationship suddenly crumble, but there's only so much solace to take from that.  A pat on the back and a "Hey things will get better," feels phony and cliche after a while.

Only recently have I come to terms with my breakup and gotten to the point where I'm ready to starf dating again.  There's no specific lass on the horizon or anything yet, but my therapist has worked with me fairly extensively over the last couple months in helping me address my areas of weakness so I'm better prepared for when I do meet someone.

Still, it's amazing to think that so many relationships could end in a fairly short period of time.  It also put things in perspective for me because as much as I had griped to myself and vented to my therapist over how I had to restart my entire life all over again, I realized my problems were fairly simple and quickly resolved compared to some of my friends and their breakups.  For instance, my buddy who was engaged has a house with his now-ex, so they have to settle ownership of that house and who has to move out.  That's way more stressful than anything I went through last year.

There is relief in knowing that my circle of friends is tight enough that we've all been there to pick each other back up.  That goes for both those of us who had been through the breakups, as well as those who didn't have to deal with a relationship ending.  I've always been grateful for my friends, but I think three years ago when I had lost my job my eyes were really opened to just how lucky I am to have them.  The last six months or so has been a reminder to me of how good a group they are, even if they have a little too much liquor in their systems on a given night.

Maybe that's how I can pay things forward.  I hope that I can help pick up one of my friends when they're down or dealing with some kind of stress with an ex.  Life won't slow down at all after a breakup even though many of us may need a breather (which I surely did), and that's when a friend can lend a helping hand the most.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

That's Gratitude For You

When I was a kid, I watched Sesame Street like it was on the verge of being cancelled every day.  I even watched some of the feature-length movies with many of the characters from the show, especially Follow That Bird.  I even recently bought that movie for my niece (who is now, shockingly, about to turn 3) in order to pass the entertainment on to the next generation.

I don't remember much of Follow That Bird, except that somehow Big Bird got lost and wound up somewhere in Asia, possibly China.  He struggled to find his way home, trying to find anyone who could help him along the way.  He eventually did find a woman who could help him, and when she spoke English clearly, he was shocked, saying, "She speaks American!"

The line was obviously meant as a joke, and by now you're probably wondering why I'm talking about any of this.  First, thanks for indulging me for a minute, but now I'll get to where I had planned on going all along.

I brought this memory up because it was the first thing I thought of when I had read about the controversy surrounding Coca-Cola's "America the Beautiful" ad it ran during Super Bowl 48 Sunday night.

Here's the ad, in case you want to refresh your memory:


Pretty awesome, right?  Pays tribute to the various cultures who live in this country, and how language isn't a barrier that separates patriotism, right?

So why is there such negative blowback to a commercial with such great intentions?

The link I posted there mentions Twitter exploding with all kinds of xenophobic reactions to the commercial, made by people who clearly missed the point of what the commercial was trying to do.  There wasn't any political agenda behind this commercial at all; it was designed to highlight people of all ethnic backgrounds and languages sharing the love for America.  What's wrong with that?

I also question those who claim this commercial is liberal and drives this country further apart as to whether any of them have family who speak another language.  I'm a first-generation American; my father was born in Lebanon and came to the U.S. not being able to speak a word of English when he was 20.  If you met him now, you'd never know he was born outside the States, but I do have plenty of relatives who speak very broken English at best, starting with my grandmother.  I can only speak very slowly and very simple dialogues with her, so I wonder if any of the people who hate this Coca-Cola commercial have relatives who speak little to no English as well.

That brings me back to Follow That Bird.  I never would have thought that a simple line from Big Bird expressing shock that someone in a foreign country could speak "American" would come to have a tragically ironic and prophetic meaning today.  I don't know if Coca-Cola plans on responding to all the blowback from its ad, but I for one am disappointed to say the least that a number of Americans think this country is all about them and not for everyone.  It's sad to think that even now there is a significant number of people who want to isolate this country from people of other cultures who love America, even ones who live here legally.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Super Bowl 48 Snap Judgments

And there you go, kids.  The Seattle Seahawks are champions of the NFL for the 2013 season.  They managed to do the one thing that no other team really could achieve this season, and that was make Peyton Manning uncomfortable in the pocket.  Heck, almost no one was ever able to do that for most of Manning's career to date.  If there was a way to award the entire defensive unit for the Seahawks as MVP, that would have been the most fair option since no one player really stood out as a game changer.  Still, it was refreshing to see the award given out to someone on the defense since it so rarely happens in the Super Bowl.

On with my thoughts....

1. Is it too soon to declare Russell Wilson as the best quarterback from the 2012 NFL draft?  Sure, Andrew Luck has largely lived up to the hype.  It wouldn't shock me if he led the Colts to a championship at some point once he reaches his prime.  RGIII is still a hard guy to figure out, but if he's 100% healthy next season he may show signs of just how good he truly is.  Wilson, however, came into the league with virtually no hype, and the only thing people really know about him is that he's short for a quarterback (around 5'10").  Now he's got more wins under his belt in his first two seasons in the league than anyone else in history, plus a championship.  He doesn't light up the stat board the way Luck or RGIII could, but he's extremely versatile in his mobility.  His throwing ability can do just enough to keep defenses worried about the passing game in addition to his running, and the team as a whole will be together for the foreseeable future since they are one the youngest teams in the league at the moment.  The Seahawks will be one of the dominant teams in the NFL for the next few years at least.

2. The Seahawks' defense has to be the best defensive unit since the 2000 Ravens.  I have not seen a team's defense look so dominant and break apart what had been previously known as an unstoppable force since the first Ravens championship team.  Obviously the Ravens' opponent in Super Bowl 35 didn't have the offensive pedigree that this Broncos team had, but they did pound the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game that year 41-0.  There have been other great defenses since the Ravens, namely the 2002 Bucs team that went on to win Super Bowl 37 and the 2007 Giants team that won Super Bowl 42.  Neither of those other teams were nearly as dominant as this Seahawks defense though.  They dictated the flow of the game, holding the Broncos scoreless until the very end of the third quarter.  I was impressed they even held the Broncos in check for the first quarter, much less two additional ones.  Dan Quinn's devotion to his players won him a championship but cost him a head coaching job in 2014; a year from now he will be at the very top of the list of candidates for teams who will be looking for head coach.

3. The Broncos' best chance at winning a title with Manning may have passed them by.  In a season where much of the AFC had performed below expectations, the Broncos had emerged as the one team who could truly contend for a title.  Next year, I expect the conference to bounce back with several teams playing much better, including the Ravens, Colts, Chiefs, and Patriots all improving between now and August.  I also don't expect Manning to play beyond next season either, so John Elway will have to consider what life after Peyton will look like.  The Broncos also find themselves sitting right at the projected salary cap max for 2014, so they have some hard choices to make regarding what they are going to do for next season.

4. Peyton's legacy is now a really murky call.  Calling any quarterback the "Best Regular Season QB Ever" is, in my opinion, a very backhanded compliment.  Yet it's somewhat appropriate for Manning.  He's a five-time MVP, something no other player in NFL history can claim.  He's set and re-set the record books in more ways than anyone can really count.  He already set himself up for the Hall of Fame years ago.  The only reason why there's any debate over his rank among the greatest QBs ever is because of his postseason performances.  Once again, he didn't come through for his team when a championship was on the line.  He now has the most postseason losses as a starting QB in NFL history, and his career record is under .500.  That's a fairly large shadow cast over top of everything else he's accomplished so far.  It isn't just about losing two Super Bowls now; it's about losing all those other postseason games where he essentially choked when his team needed him to come through most.  For my money, he's still in the top five of all time, but he will always be in Tom Brady's shadow.

That puts a bow on the 2013 season.  The predictions and weekly recaps will be back for next season.

Monday, January 20, 2014

NFL Conference Championship Sunday Snap Judgments

And then there were two.

We can expect a classic matchup on February 2 in the Meadowlands.  Seattle and Denver have been the two best teams in the league all season long, and they are set to clash in the final game of the 2013 NFL season.  Super Bowl 48 will be the first game between a pair of #1 seeds since the Saints/Colts game 4 years ago, which goes to show how surprisingly infrequently we get such a contest.  The last three Super Bowl champions all got hot either late in the season or at the start of the playoffs, putting on an unlikely performance towards winning the Lombardi trophy.  This time, there was no Cinderella team.  Two heavyweights will go head to head to win it all.  Fans like you and me may have to record the game to watch and rewatch every play along the way.

1. The Aqib Talib injury was pretty much the deciding factor in Denver.  If the Patriots had any chance at winning the game, it would largely depend on their secondary holding the Broncos' receiving corps at bay.  Talib is their best cover corner, and once he was taken out of the game by - ironically - Broncos receiver (and former Patriot) Wes Welker, the Patriots had little to stop the Broncos' passing attack.  The Patriots did manage to make the game interesting late, but missing Talib on the field was too much to overcome.

2. Peyton Manning.  'Nuff said.  Once again, Peyton Manning turned the field of play into a video game and dominated the Patriots.  The Broncos had just enough of a pass rush that held Tom Brady at bay, leaving Manning to do his thing and let his running backs keep the defense honest while concentrating on covering Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Demaryius Thomas.  Despite the Patriots' efforts, Thomas had a huge day, and Knowshon Moreno consistently produced on the ground.  Still, the Broncos have - quite fittingly - their toughest test left ahead of them in the Seahawks, which leads me to.....

3. The 49ers' defense played their best game possible, but Colin Kaepernick did them in.  Some pathetically awful non-calls by the referees didn't help, but Kaepernick's two interceptions proved to be the deciding factor.  He still did everything he could to keep the 49ers in the game, but a team's quarterback being their leading rusher doesn't typically translate to a win.  It's difficult to give Kaepernick the Goat of the Week Award, considering he singlehandedly kept the 49ers in the game, but his lost fumble led to a Seahawks field goal, and one of his picks also allowed the Seahawks to take the lead for good in the game.

. I have no problem with Richard Sherman's postgame interview.  I've read plenty of articles online calling Sherman classless (and worse) for his trash-talk when Erin Andrews had asked him for his thoughts as soon as the game had ended.  I don't see the big deal.  His comments were 1.) in complete response to what 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree had said to him earlier in the day; 2.) no worse than Terrell Suggs' trash talk after last year's AFC title game when Suggs had said, "Have fun at the Pro Bowl, Patriots!"; and 3.) the kind of honest answer that any sports journalist actually wants from a player or coach.  The media will readily mock the likes of Bill Belichick for not being very forthcoming with information or emotion, so why get on Richard Sherman for being openly emotional?

5. I still think having the Super Bowl being exposed to potential winter weather elements is a mistake.  I'm a nobody who only writes his blog for fun, so my thoughts are only going to fall on deaf ears here, but I have said all along that putting the Super Bowl in a cold weather city is a terrible idea.  The issue would have been magnified had warm weather or dome teams like San Diego or New Orleans gotten this far, but that doesn't ignore the potential elephant in the room.  The game itself could well be affected if there is snow or freezing rain throughout the game, but that doesn't even take into account the possibility of traveling fans being impacted as well.  It also ignores the chances of touring the city being limited if there is snow and/or ice on the ground.  The bottom line is this experiment will either be a massive success or a total disaster; there isn't much chance for in-between.

See you in two weeks, kids.