No defending Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots, which is pretty remarkable when you really think about that. Four champions - the Steelers (twice), Giants, and Ravens - failed to even make the playoffs the following year during that same span. If that isn't a sign of how parity is rampant across the league, then I don't know what will.
Now we come to the curious case of the Seahawks. At one point, they were 3-3, and then later on they had traded away one of their primary playmakers on offense. There were all kinds of questions surrounding the leadership ability and overall trust in their quarterback. There is still talk of whether their running back - another big time offensive playmaker - will be back with the team next year.
Despite all that drama, the Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC going into the playoffs and have home field advantage the rest of the way. They only lost one home game this season, so they'd have to lay a fairly colossal egg to be handed an early exit in the postseason. Granted, #1 seeds have been sent home in either classic games (e.g. Ravens/Broncos two years ago), or coming out completely flat in their first game after their bye (e.g. Packers/Giants three years ago). Cliche as it sounds, I don't see the Seahawks coming out flat after they return from their bye week. They're too well-coached, and it would not surprise anyone if they became the first team since those 2004 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
1. Meanwhile, there will be some job opportunities opening up today. Jim Harbaugh is already out the door in San Francisco, and Woody Johnson is preparing to clean house for the Jets today as well. The Raiders are already in need of a head coach, and Chicago and Atlanta are also likely to have regime changes. Of those five organizations, it's hard to pick which one is the most attractive for anyone looking for a head coaching job. If the 49ers look outside the organization, on paper they'd have the best roster of players, but there's the obvious question of what kind of control and power a new head coach would have under GM Trent Baalke and owner Jed York. Chicago and Atlanta are roughly neck and neck in terms of how much rebuilding needs to be done. Chicago has a running back and elite group of receivers, but there are huge questions surrounding the quarterback and defense; Atlanta has a quarterback and elite receiver, but the Falcons need a running back, and serious help on both the offensive and defensive lines. The Jets are a complete mess, and the Raiders aren't in a much better position. I'm sticking with the 49ers as the team in need of a head coach right now that is closest to a "win now" position, but the competition in the NFC West is getting heavier with each passing season.
2. Justin Houston has not gotten the kind of attention he's deserved this season. I don't think I've brought Houston up at all this year, but he has had an incredible season playing for the Chiefs. He finished his 2014 season leading the league in sacks, finishing only 1.5 sacks behind Michael Strahan for the single-season record. If not for J.J. Watt, he'd be a very likely candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He's also an impending free agent, and early word is that he and the Chiefs are going to fight over his franchise tag in the offseason. He also turns 26 in January, so he's just starting to enter the prime of his career. He stands to make a ton of money with his next contract, so while the Chiefs would be wise to prevent him from hitting the free agent market, they'd be doing everyone a disservice if they can't work out a long-term deal with Houston.
3. The Browns are still a mess. Once upon a time, way back in the first week of November, the Browns were 5-3 and looking ready to take a big step towards competitiveness in the AFC North. Fast forward nearly two months later, and they managed to lose their final five games of the season. Johnny Manziel is quickly showing he doesn't take his job very seriously, and the front office is already very frustrated with his antics. I find it hard to believe that the franchise would look to drafting yet another quarterback early in the draft in April, but Manziel is already on a very thin thread with management. For whatever reason, the Browns just can't take a step forward without taking two steps back.
4. The Panthers might actually win a playoff game. Prior to the season, I thought the Panthers would take a pretty big step backwards after going 12-4 last year. I expected 8-8 was pretty likely, and as it turned out, that was extremely close to their 7-8-1 record. It was also enough to win the pathetic NFC South, and they'll host the Arizona Cardinals on Wild Card Weekend. With the quarterback position up in the air for the Cardinals, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the Panthers win a playoff game much like the 7-9 Seahawks did when they had beaten the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in 2010 as NFC West champions. In 2010 I felt the idea of a division winner finishing 8-8 or worse was a fluke; I was proven wrong this season, and I think the time has come for the NFL to rethink its postseason seeding procedures.
5. Joe Flacco finally showed some leadership moxie. The Ravens had an opportunity to return to the playoffs as the Chiefs beat up the Chargers yesterday. Instead of taking care of business at home during the first half, the Ravens' offense once again sputtered, putting up only 3 points in their final home game of the season. They were tied 3-3 at the half, and Flacco had enough. He gave an impassioned halftime speech, one that lit a fire on everyone in the locker room. They went out and put up 17 unanswered points to ultimately win the game and grab the final playoff spot in the AFC. That's the kind of leader Flacco has to be if the Ravens are going to win any playoff games this season. He may not be interesting or emotional in his press conferences, but he can light a fire when he has to in the huddle or in the locker room. If he can assert himself like that again Saturday night against the Steelers, the Ravens could make another playoff run.
6. The Giants will be an upstart team for 2015. The Giants' offense has a chance to be really, really good next year, with Victor Cruz returning and playing on the opposite side of Odell Beckham, Jr. If Eli Manning cuts back on his turnovers (which he did in 2014 over 2013), the Giants could be right in the mix with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East. They have to address Jason Pierre-Paul's contract and the rest of their defense in the draft, and if they do they can rebound next season. Call this a super early bold prediction sure to go wrong for next year.
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