....or, "The Week Where We Actually Start Figuring Out Who's Good And Who's Not."
The NFL season is pretty murky for the first month or so, and that's nothing new. Some teams start out super hot but flame out eventually, and others hit stumbling blocks for the first couple weeks before getting their collective act together. We still have six unbeaten teams left - New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta - but we can't expect all of them to still be in the mix come December.
I was dead wrong on New England. I thought Brady's suspension would have been upheld, and the Patriots would be forced to go with Jimmy Garoppolo for their first four games. If there's some kind of blue ribbon for making dumb predictions, I deserve every bit of mockery that comes with it. The Patriots have steamrolled their competition thus far, and Brady is playing at a level even surpassing his record-setting season in 2007. I looked at their schedule for the rest of the season, and I don't see a game where they even have a chance at losing until Week 12 when they travel to Denver (and they could still be a prohibitive favorite to win that game).
Denver is an enigma. Their offensive line is below average at best, and Peyton Manning hasn't played well in Gary Kubiak's offense. Despite their struggles, they're still winning football games, while Kansas City and San Diego have both struggled in the first month. Oakland looks a heck of a lot better than anyone could have expected after four weeks, but they aren't about to overtake the Broncos in the division.
The NFC South was a putrid division last year, with Carolina being the team that was the least awful (talk about a backhanded compliment). Cam Newton is throwing the football to Ted Ginn, Jr, and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to name anyone on their defense besides Luke Kuechly, I'd freeze, though Josh Norman is quickly making a name for himself at CB. Meanwhile, Atlanta has soundly beaten three of the four teams in the NFC East, and their defeat of Houston yesterday was way more one-sided than the final score would indicate. Devonta Freeman is giving head coach Dan Quinn a great problem to have by playing so well, he should be the starter when Tevin Coleman returns from his rib injury. Quinn is even a super early candidate for Coach of the Year in how quickly he's improved the Falcons.
But it's not all coming up roses for everyone because....
1. There are some surprise bad teams in the NFL, too. The Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, and Dolphins each have one win apiece, and at least three of those teams were picked by many to be playoff teams. Of those five, the Dolphins and Eagles are arguably the worst of the bunch, though the Ravens aren't that far behind them. Chris Ivory ran circles around the Dolphins defense all day, and that includes Ndamukong Suh, who was supposed to anchor their defensive line. The loss could cost Joe Philbin his job, and we should find out within the next 24 hours or so whether he's been given a pink slip. Meanwhile, the Eagles quite possibly have the worst offensive unit in the NFL, with an offensive line who provides zero protection for both passing and running plays. Their defense isn't doing them any favors either, though being on the field for over 41 minutes will wear anyone out. However, they have the benefit of playing in a bad division, so they actually still have a chance to win it if they can finish 8-8.
2. The 49ers defense is every bit as bad as expected. I don't get to toot my horn very often at all, but one of my season predictions was that the 49ers' defense would give up the most points in the league this year. Right now, they're in 3rd place in that category, but they aren't far off the pace. The Bears and Chiefs are currently tied for first at 125 points, and Tampa is second with 117 points. The 49ers do have the worst point differential in the league at the moment, at -62. Even though the Lions are winless, San Francisco is still arguably the worst team in the NFC.
3. The MVP of the Week is Devonta Freeman. As mentioned above, Freeman is giving Falcons head coach Dan Quinn a great problem to have when Tevin Coleman comes back. He's scored 6 touchdowns in his last two games, and the trio of QB Matt Ryan, Freeman, and WR Julio Jones is the best tandem of offensive skill positions in the league right now. If there's a weakness on their team, I have yet to find it.
4. The Goat of the Week is Josh Scobee. Scobee missed two field goal attempts Thursday night in the 4th quarter for the Steelers in a game where they could have buried the Ravens for the season. Instead, the Ravens won the game in overtime and kept their season alive. Scobee has already been released, and the Steelers are now on their fourth kicker for the season. Special teams can make or break a team, and the Steelers are Exhibit A.
5. Tramon Williams was a close runner up for Goat of the Week. The Browns made a huge comeback against the Chargers, tying the game up late in the 4th quarter. With only seconds to go, the Chargers lined up for a game-winning field goal attempt, which Josh Lambo kicked wide right. Most other games would head to overtime, except Tramon Williams was off sides on the play, which meant the Chargers got a re-kick. Lambo made it, the Chargers won the game, and Tramon Williams made a typical Browns finish to a close game.
6. When was the last time the league had so many young, impact wide receivers? Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Jr, A.J. Green, and Sammy Watkins, just to start. I can't remember a time when the league had so many good to great young wide receivers all playing at the same time. Green is just starting to reach his prime, and he signed a long-term extension to stay in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. I realize this is very arbitrary, but in the first round of the NFL draft between 2003 and 2005, a total of 16 wide receivers were drafted in the first round, and of those, only 3 went on to have successful careers in the NFL: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roddy White. The league's efforts to protect wide receivers from serious injury may play a role in that, but no one can deny the kind of raw talent this group of guys has.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Monday, September 14, 2015
NFL 2015 Week 1 Snap Judgments
....or, "Let's All Jump to Unfair and Premature Conclusions On What We Know About Each Team."
It's always kind of silly to have any kind of serious reactions to Week 1 of an NFL season since the good teams separate themselves from the bad teams until at least a month into the season. Supposedly good teams like Seattle, Indianapolis, and Baltimore all lost, while potentially weaker teams like the Jets and Tennessee both had hugely lopsided victories. The one truly notable talking point in Week 1 is that there are always a couple serious season-ending injuries, and this week was no exception. Having said all that, let's dive right in....
1. I didn't give the Bills nearly enough thought or credit prior to Sunday. The Bills' defense is stronger, faster, and meaner than anything I could have expected, and shame on me for not expecting that. They had a solid defense before Rex Ryan was hired as their new head coach, but they played some crazy tenacity by making Andrew Luck uncomfortable in the pocket all day long. The Colts didn't even get on the board until well after the game was decided, and their overall weaknesses as a team were exposed even further when the Bills rushed for 147 yards on them (though it felt like a whole lot more than that).
2. The MVP of the Week is Marcus Mariota. Speaking of failing to give proper thought or credit, Marcus Mariota had one of the greatest rookie QB debuts in NFL history, throwing for four touchdown passes in the first half. I'm not going to back down from my prediction that Jameis Winston will break the rookie QB touchdown record, but for at least one Sunday, Mariota looked like a proven veteran QB and Winston looked every bit like the rookie he is.
3. The Rams could be one of the upstart teams in the NFC. The Rams already had a fierce defense with Aaron Donald, Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, Robert Quinn, and Michael Brockers, but what they lacked is consistent QB play because Sam Bradford always found new and interesting ways to end his season abruptly. Enter Nick Foles, and the Rams suddenly look balanced and dangerous in the NFC West. They'll get even better once Todd Gurley can take the field, but it's fair to point out that despite the loss, Cary Williams unquestionably had the play of the day.
4. We are in for another season of ridiculous drama in Washington. I hope everyone is happy with hearing about the ongoing circus that is the Redskins, because we are bound to read more about the ridiculous RGIII story line. The worst part is that even if the Redskins do cut him (as they should), the drama won't end there. There will still be dysfunction between owner Dan Snyder and head coach Jay Gruden as they argue over what direction the team should take. Kirk Cousins was serviceable for most of Sunday, save a pick-6 to Brice McCain that was ultimately a game deciding play, but there's no way to know right now whether he's the long term quarterback.
Oh, and Keenan Robinson is going to kill someone making tackles like this one. It's amazing that Jarvis Landry was able to still play the rest of the game.
5. The Goat of the Week is Tom Coughlin. Football 101: If your football team possesses the lead late in the game and the opposition has used up all its timeouts, just run the football until the clock hits 0:00. So why, when the Giants were up with 1:43 to play, did Tom Coughlin call for a pass play on a 3rd and 1? Moreover, Eli Manning still threw the ball instead of taking a sack to keep the clock running. To his credit, Tom Coughlin took the heat for the bumbled play call, as did Eli.
6. Losing Terrell Suggs is no small issue, but the Ravens can absorb his absence. The Ravens already placed second-year player Brent Urban on the IR-designated to return, so even if Suggs miraculously healed by January, he couldn't return to the team. They do have enough other pass rushers that they can handle losing him, starting with rookie Za'Darius Smith. However, the other notable injuries from Sunday - namely Luke Kuechly's concussion and Dez Bryant's fractured foot - could actually have larger impacts on their respective teams than Suggs, despite their anticipated returns coming far sooner than Suggs.
7. The Chiefs' wide receivers may never catch another touchdown pass. It's ancient history in football years since the last time a wide receiver caught a touchdown pass, and even the addition of Jeremy Maclin may not do much to fix that issue. And yet, they're still one of the better teams in the AFC since they have playmakers like Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce (who did catch two TDs, and made of the greatest touchdown celebrations you'll ever see) and a stout defense. How often can anyone say a team's wide receiving corps can be literally taken out of a football game week in and week out, and still not be completely terrible?
8. No Jordy Nelson means no problem for the Packers. I somewhat suspect that I had put the kiss of death on the Packers this year because I had picked them to win the Super Bowl, and then a matter of days later, Jordy Nelson tore his ACL. Normally such a devastating loss to a crucial offensive player is a season-changer, but Aaron Rodgers is one of those few QBs in the league who just makes his guys around him better. Instead, they grabbed James Jones off the scrap heap, and all he did was make two TD catches on the day. I wasn't ever that concerned for their season even after Nelson went down, even though part of me wondered if I had inadvertently sent the football gods after them. But hey, this entire post has all been about unfair and premature conclusions, so that's just one more to the mix.
It's always kind of silly to have any kind of serious reactions to Week 1 of an NFL season since the good teams separate themselves from the bad teams until at least a month into the season. Supposedly good teams like Seattle, Indianapolis, and Baltimore all lost, while potentially weaker teams like the Jets and Tennessee both had hugely lopsided victories. The one truly notable talking point in Week 1 is that there are always a couple serious season-ending injuries, and this week was no exception. Having said all that, let's dive right in....
1. I didn't give the Bills nearly enough thought or credit prior to Sunday. The Bills' defense is stronger, faster, and meaner than anything I could have expected, and shame on me for not expecting that. They had a solid defense before Rex Ryan was hired as their new head coach, but they played some crazy tenacity by making Andrew Luck uncomfortable in the pocket all day long. The Colts didn't even get on the board until well after the game was decided, and their overall weaknesses as a team were exposed even further when the Bills rushed for 147 yards on them (though it felt like a whole lot more than that).
2. The MVP of the Week is Marcus Mariota. Speaking of failing to give proper thought or credit, Marcus Mariota had one of the greatest rookie QB debuts in NFL history, throwing for four touchdown passes in the first half. I'm not going to back down from my prediction that Jameis Winston will break the rookie QB touchdown record, but for at least one Sunday, Mariota looked like a proven veteran QB and Winston looked every bit like the rookie he is.
3. The Rams could be one of the upstart teams in the NFC. The Rams already had a fierce defense with Aaron Donald, Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, Robert Quinn, and Michael Brockers, but what they lacked is consistent QB play because Sam Bradford always found new and interesting ways to end his season abruptly. Enter Nick Foles, and the Rams suddenly look balanced and dangerous in the NFC West. They'll get even better once Todd Gurley can take the field, but it's fair to point out that despite the loss, Cary Williams unquestionably had the play of the day.
4. We are in for another season of ridiculous drama in Washington. I hope everyone is happy with hearing about the ongoing circus that is the Redskins, because we are bound to read more about the ridiculous RGIII story line. The worst part is that even if the Redskins do cut him (as they should), the drama won't end there. There will still be dysfunction between owner Dan Snyder and head coach Jay Gruden as they argue over what direction the team should take. Kirk Cousins was serviceable for most of Sunday, save a pick-6 to Brice McCain that was ultimately a game deciding play, but there's no way to know right now whether he's the long term quarterback.
Oh, and Keenan Robinson is going to kill someone making tackles like this one. It's amazing that Jarvis Landry was able to still play the rest of the game.
5. The Goat of the Week is Tom Coughlin. Football 101: If your football team possesses the lead late in the game and the opposition has used up all its timeouts, just run the football until the clock hits 0:00. So why, when the Giants were up with 1:43 to play, did Tom Coughlin call for a pass play on a 3rd and 1? Moreover, Eli Manning still threw the ball instead of taking a sack to keep the clock running. To his credit, Tom Coughlin took the heat for the bumbled play call, as did Eli.
6. Losing Terrell Suggs is no small issue, but the Ravens can absorb his absence. The Ravens already placed second-year player Brent Urban on the IR-designated to return, so even if Suggs miraculously healed by January, he couldn't return to the team. They do have enough other pass rushers that they can handle losing him, starting with rookie Za'Darius Smith. However, the other notable injuries from Sunday - namely Luke Kuechly's concussion and Dez Bryant's fractured foot - could actually have larger impacts on their respective teams than Suggs, despite their anticipated returns coming far sooner than Suggs.
7. The Chiefs' wide receivers may never catch another touchdown pass. It's ancient history in football years since the last time a wide receiver caught a touchdown pass, and even the addition of Jeremy Maclin may not do much to fix that issue. And yet, they're still one of the better teams in the AFC since they have playmakers like Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce (who did catch two TDs, and made of the greatest touchdown celebrations you'll ever see) and a stout defense. How often can anyone say a team's wide receiving corps can be literally taken out of a football game week in and week out, and still not be completely terrible?
8. No Jordy Nelson means no problem for the Packers. I somewhat suspect that I had put the kiss of death on the Packers this year because I had picked them to win the Super Bowl, and then a matter of days later, Jordy Nelson tore his ACL. Normally such a devastating loss to a crucial offensive player is a season-changer, but Aaron Rodgers is one of those few QBs in the league who just makes his guys around him better. Instead, they grabbed James Jones off the scrap heap, and all he did was make two TD catches on the day. I wasn't ever that concerned for their season even after Nelson went down, even though part of me wondered if I had inadvertently sent the football gods after them. But hey, this entire post has all been about unfair and premature conclusions, so that's just one more to the mix.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
2015 NFL Predictions Sure to Go Wrong
Okay, I don't have much of any excuse as to why I haven't posted anything in months. I'm sure there aren't more than three or four people who even regularly read this blog anyway, but those precious few who do read my posts and maybe even look forward to them, I am sorry for casting this blog aside. Hopefully this post will get me back in that groove to write more regularly.
Anyway, my NFL predictions have been an August staple the last few years, so let's go for round five of them.
1. The Denver Broncos will miss the playoffs. Gotta go balls out with this one. They were the #1 seed in the playoffs in the 2012 postseason and got bounced in that bug nuts crazy legendary playoff game. The next year, they got all the way to Super Bowl 48, but were utterly humiliated. Last year, they were upset yet again by the Colts in the Divisional Round (any Broncos fan reading this post probably already wishes a vicious, violent death for me for forcing them to relive those memories). The football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away, and they will take from the Broncos in 2015. Their offensive line is really, really bad to say the least, and not even Gary Kubiak can fix it this year. They won't be bad per se, but a season finishing around 8-8 will feel like a major step backwards for a team who won the division each of the last three seasons and appeared (technically speaking) in the Super Bowl during that span. A disappointing season will especially sting because...
2. It's the final swan song for Peyton Manning. The writing is on the wall. He turned 39 years old in March, which is old by any NFL standard. That is not to imply his performance on the field will suffer, but I expect he will take quite a beating by defenses with a below-average offensive line protecting him. His team will have a grueling season, struggling with two other very good teams in their division. It won't be the kind of final season Manning wants for himself, but he'll face the reality that his career will end on a fairly sour note.
3. The New York Giants will win the NFC East. Normally, I try to pick at least one last-place team to rebound the next season to win its division outright. That trend held up for over a decade in the NFL, but came to a screeching halt last year. The Giants didn't finish in last place in their division last year either, but they were a pretty bad team in 2014. The point is, their offense will be one of the most prolific in the league with Odell Beckham, Jr and Victor Cruz as their top two receivers with Mario Manningham in the slot. NFC East defensive backs, you go have fun with that.
4. Marvin Lewis will be fired as Bengals head coach before the end of the season. Pop quiz, hotshot: Which head coach in the league has the second longest tenure at his job behind Bill Belichick? Yes, it's Marvin Lewis, and why he's hung around in Cincinnati as long as he has is a mystery to pretty much everyone except for Mike Brown. Whatever faith Brown has in Lewis and his design for the team will fade when the Bengals finally figure out Andy Dalton is not a winner at quarterback this year. The Ravens and Steelers will duke it out for the division title in 2015, and the Bengals will finish under .500, leading to Lewis finally losing his job.
5. The New England Patriots will finish with their fewest wins since 2009. In 2009, the Patriots had "only" 10 wins, and had at least 11 wins every year since. Ten wins is still pretty respectable in the NFL, and usually is enough to get a team to the playoffs (it's worth noting that the Patriots still won the AFC East in 2009 too). Tom Brady's suspension will force the Patriots to start the season very slowly, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won only one game in their first four while they wait for Brady to return. Brady will certainly play with a major chip on his shoulder once he returns, but the Patriots lost both their starting cornerbacks in free agency this past spring, so my prediction is more about their losses on defense than not having Brady for all 16 games. Still, I do expect them to win the AFC East, but that's mostly due to being in a weak division: the Bills have major quarterback issues, the Jets won't have Geno Smith until at least October thanks to IK Enemkpali, and the Dolphins are the Dolphins.
6. Jameis Winston will break the NFL rookie QB record for TD passes. The current record is 26 TD passes, held by Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. Winston already has some quality targets in Tampa, including Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. However, the bigger reason why I think he'll have such a great rookie season is largely due to his work ethic. I don't think the Bucs are ready to make a playoff run just yet (something I learned the hard way last year), but they will be one of the more improved teams in 2015.
7. The San Francisco 49ers' defense will give up the most points in the league this season. Let's take a quick head count of the losses the 49ers have had on defense since last year: CB Perrish Cox, CB Chris Culliver, DT Justin Smith, LB Chris Borland, LB Patrick Willis, and LB Aldon Smith. Those losses are a mixture of free agents leaving, players retiring, and players being cut, but the combined losses will translate to a defense that just won't be able to stop many offenses across the league. The narrative gets even worse when you stop to think about the teams the 49ers have to face in 2015; in addition to their divisional rivals, they have to play the Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Giants, and Lions, just to name a few. The coaching staff and front office may have to start looking at who the top defensive players coming out of college are expected to be this year since the 49ers are almost destined to get a top-five pick in the next NFL Draft come April 2016.
8. The Jacksonville Jaguars will finish with their best record since 2010. The moment that #3 overall draft pick Dante Fowler went down with a torn ACL made most everyone think, "Well, that's the Jaguars' luck for you." Despite his injury and inability to contribute this season, I still think the Jaguars will be another very improved team over last year and finish around 8-8. They're still a couple pieces away from truly competing for the playoffs, but they will give their fans something to get excited about for the first time in a very long time.
9. Philip Rivers will be the league MVP. Once upon a time, I had previously predicted that Philip Rivers would be the NFL MVP. At the risk of repeating past mistakes, I'm making the same prediction for this season. The Chargers have a chance to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league this year along with the Giants, Packers, and Colts. Rivers could put himself in a position for a hefty pay day if the Chargers don't work out a new contract with him before the season starts.
10. The Green Bay Packers will defeat the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl 50. The city of San Diego could be forced into a very bittersweet season if reports that the Chargers leaving for L.A. are true. The upside is that NFL fans would be in for quite an offensive show equipped with fireworks if this match up happens in Santa Clara in February. However, if the Chargers are as good as I expect them to be and get all the way to the Super Bowl, Chargers fans will have plenty of reason to be bitter towards owner Alexander Spanos and GM Tom Telesco. On the other side of the spectrum, Packers fans will be able to celebrate yet another Super Bowl championship for their team.
Anyway, my NFL predictions have been an August staple the last few years, so let's go for round five of them.
1. The Denver Broncos will miss the playoffs. Gotta go balls out with this one. They were the #1 seed in the playoffs in the 2012 postseason and got bounced in that bug nuts crazy legendary playoff game. The next year, they got all the way to Super Bowl 48, but were utterly humiliated. Last year, they were upset yet again by the Colts in the Divisional Round (any Broncos fan reading this post probably already wishes a vicious, violent death for me for forcing them to relive those memories). The football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away, and they will take from the Broncos in 2015. Their offensive line is really, really bad to say the least, and not even Gary Kubiak can fix it this year. They won't be bad per se, but a season finishing around 8-8 will feel like a major step backwards for a team who won the division each of the last three seasons and appeared (technically speaking) in the Super Bowl during that span. A disappointing season will especially sting because...
2. It's the final swan song for Peyton Manning. The writing is on the wall. He turned 39 years old in March, which is old by any NFL standard. That is not to imply his performance on the field will suffer, but I expect he will take quite a beating by defenses with a below-average offensive line protecting him. His team will have a grueling season, struggling with two other very good teams in their division. It won't be the kind of final season Manning wants for himself, but he'll face the reality that his career will end on a fairly sour note.
3. The New York Giants will win the NFC East. Normally, I try to pick at least one last-place team to rebound the next season to win its division outright. That trend held up for over a decade in the NFL, but came to a screeching halt last year. The Giants didn't finish in last place in their division last year either, but they were a pretty bad team in 2014. The point is, their offense will be one of the most prolific in the league with Odell Beckham, Jr and Victor Cruz as their top two receivers with Mario Manningham in the slot. NFC East defensive backs, you go have fun with that.
4. Marvin Lewis will be fired as Bengals head coach before the end of the season. Pop quiz, hotshot: Which head coach in the league has the second longest tenure at his job behind Bill Belichick? Yes, it's Marvin Lewis, and why he's hung around in Cincinnati as long as he has is a mystery to pretty much everyone except for Mike Brown. Whatever faith Brown has in Lewis and his design for the team will fade when the Bengals finally figure out Andy Dalton is not a winner at quarterback this year. The Ravens and Steelers will duke it out for the division title in 2015, and the Bengals will finish under .500, leading to Lewis finally losing his job.
5. The New England Patriots will finish with their fewest wins since 2009. In 2009, the Patriots had "only" 10 wins, and had at least 11 wins every year since. Ten wins is still pretty respectable in the NFL, and usually is enough to get a team to the playoffs (it's worth noting that the Patriots still won the AFC East in 2009 too). Tom Brady's suspension will force the Patriots to start the season very slowly, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won only one game in their first four while they wait for Brady to return. Brady will certainly play with a major chip on his shoulder once he returns, but the Patriots lost both their starting cornerbacks in free agency this past spring, so my prediction is more about their losses on defense than not having Brady for all 16 games. Still, I do expect them to win the AFC East, but that's mostly due to being in a weak division: the Bills have major quarterback issues, the Jets won't have Geno Smith until at least October thanks to IK Enemkpali, and the Dolphins are the Dolphins.
6. Jameis Winston will break the NFL rookie QB record for TD passes. The current record is 26 TD passes, held by Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. Winston already has some quality targets in Tampa, including Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. However, the bigger reason why I think he'll have such a great rookie season is largely due to his work ethic. I don't think the Bucs are ready to make a playoff run just yet (something I learned the hard way last year), but they will be one of the more improved teams in 2015.
7. The San Francisco 49ers' defense will give up the most points in the league this season. Let's take a quick head count of the losses the 49ers have had on defense since last year: CB Perrish Cox, CB Chris Culliver, DT Justin Smith, LB Chris Borland, LB Patrick Willis, and LB Aldon Smith. Those losses are a mixture of free agents leaving, players retiring, and players being cut, but the combined losses will translate to a defense that just won't be able to stop many offenses across the league. The narrative gets even worse when you stop to think about the teams the 49ers have to face in 2015; in addition to their divisional rivals, they have to play the Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Giants, and Lions, just to name a few. The coaching staff and front office may have to start looking at who the top defensive players coming out of college are expected to be this year since the 49ers are almost destined to get a top-five pick in the next NFL Draft come April 2016.
8. The Jacksonville Jaguars will finish with their best record since 2010. The moment that #3 overall draft pick Dante Fowler went down with a torn ACL made most everyone think, "Well, that's the Jaguars' luck for you." Despite his injury and inability to contribute this season, I still think the Jaguars will be another very improved team over last year and finish around 8-8. They're still a couple pieces away from truly competing for the playoffs, but they will give their fans something to get excited about for the first time in a very long time.
9. Philip Rivers will be the league MVP. Once upon a time, I had previously predicted that Philip Rivers would be the NFL MVP. At the risk of repeating past mistakes, I'm making the same prediction for this season. The Chargers have a chance to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league this year along with the Giants, Packers, and Colts. Rivers could put himself in a position for a hefty pay day if the Chargers don't work out a new contract with him before the season starts.
10. The Green Bay Packers will defeat the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl 50. The city of San Diego could be forced into a very bittersweet season if reports that the Chargers leaving for L.A. are true. The upside is that NFL fans would be in for quite an offensive show equipped with fireworks if this match up happens in Santa Clara in February. However, if the Chargers are as good as I expect them to be and get all the way to the Super Bowl, Chargers fans will have plenty of reason to be bitter towards owner Alexander Spanos and GM Tom Telesco. On the other side of the spectrum, Packers fans will be able to celebrate yet another Super Bowl championship for their team.
Saturday, March 21, 2015
2015 MLB Predictions Sure to Go Wrong
Holy smokes!
Has it really been more than two months since I last wrote anything? What the hell happened?
More on what I've been up to later, but for the first step in getting back to blogging regularly, here are my predictions for the 2015 Major League Baseball season.
1. The St. Louis Cardinals will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2010 season. Death, taxes, and the Cardinals making the playoffs, right? Normally yes, but there will be a changing of the guard in NL Central this year. The Cubs will be much improved between their own talent and bringing in Joe Madden as their new manager (more on that a little later), and the Pirates are going to be really, really good as well. Somebody has to take a step backwards, and that team will be the Cardinals. While I don't expect a complete collapse from this year, they aren't going to be in the playoff hunt down the stretch.
2. The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West. Speaking of changing of the guards, the Mariners have added enough to their team to overtake their division rival Angels. Nelson Cruz getting 4 years in his offer from the team will look really stupid in a couple years, but he'll provide enough boost to their offense in 2015 that the Mariners will win over 90 games and take the division crown. Taijuan Walker will also get to show his stuff in the rotation in the season, albeit in somewhat limited fashion since he's only 22 and pitched only a handful of starts last year.
3. The three-team race in the AL Central will not involve the Detroit Tigers. The theme of perennial contenders being overtaken by their division rivals is a theme here. Miguel Cabrera will still be productive, but he'll show his best years are finally behind him; the same will go for Justin Verlander. The White Sox, Indians, and Royals will all be vying for the division title by September, with the Tigers on the outside looking in.
4. Troy Tulowitzki will finally play in more than 140 games this year and be the hot-ticket item by the trade deadline. The Rockies will want some prize prospects in exchange for Tulo by July, but they'll still need to eat some of the $118 million he is owed in his contract despite moving him. A team in need of a slugging shortstop (*cough cough* THE METS *cough cough*) will make great use of him in the second half of the season.
5. Kevin Gausman will have a monster break out year for the Orioles. The Orioles have been very careful in how much they have used Gausman so far in his career, but this year they will let him loose and he will turn into the team's de facto ace. He will lead the team in wins and ERA on the season, emerging as their #1 starter as they make another push for October.
6. The Yankees will finish under .500 for the first time since 1992. Scary to think there are players on active rosters in Major League Baseball who are not old enough to remember the last time the Yankees had finished under .500. The Yankees are on the decline dating back to last season, and their roster of guys well into their 30s are only going to keep declining. They will be fighting the Rays for last place in the AL East.
7. The San Diego Padres will be baseball's most improved team from last year. There will be several teams who will win 8-10 more games this year over last, including the Astros, Cubs, Mets, and Marlins, but the Padres have added both offense and starting pitching to compete with the Giants and Dodgers in their division. I don't see them beating out the Dodgers for the division title, but they will take one of the Wild Card spots in the NL.
8. The Chicago Cubs will finish over .500 for the first time since 2009, and Joe Madden will be NL Manager of the Year. The Cubs are still a year or so away from truly competing for the NL Central, but they will take major strides forward this year with Jon Lester anchoring their pitching staff and Joe Madden calling the shots. Kris Bryant won't be on their roster to start the season, but he will join the team by Memorial Day and provide an immediate impact from both offense and defense. The rest of their young core of players will continue to develop, because....
9. Adam Jones and Anthony Rizzo will be the league MVPs. Adam Jones is the cornerstone of the Orioles' offense now, and he will carry the team to their second consecutive division title. Anthony Rizzo will lead the Cubs' young talent and give their fans the most reason to get excited in a very long time.
10. Clayton Kershaw will win yet another Cy Young Award, and Felix Hernandez will win it in the AL. I tried being cute last year by picking someone other than Kershaw to win the NL Cy Young. Shame on me, because as boring as it is to pick a favorite, nobody else comes close to his level of dominance. The scary thing about Kershaw is that he just turned 27 earlier this week, so he's just now entering his prime. As for King Felix, his win-loss record will finally no longer be as mediocre as it has been the last few years (even though that doesn't mean a whole lot for a pitcher anyway).
11. The Los Angeles Dodgers will finally get over the hump and defeat the Seattle Mariners in the World Series. The spending spree the Dodgers have gone on the last few years will finally pay off for them in an all-west coast Series. Mariners fans will have plenty to hang their collective hats on since they've never gotten this far in October before, and who wouldn't want to watch a Kershaw vs. King Felix matchup in Game 1?
Monday, January 12, 2015
NFL 2015 Divisional Round Snap Judgments
I've read and watched plenty of reviews of the Baltimore/New England game from Saturday evening for plenty of obvious reasons. What I specifically was looking for was detail over John Harbaugh's unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in the 3rd quarter, and what the Patriots had done that set him off. I think I'm a bit more clear on what had transpired, but it's still something that I don't recall ever seeing in a football game before.
Patriots running back Shane Vereen went to a ref prior to the play in question to inform him he would be an ineligible receiver, thus making him an offensive lineman on the upcoming play. Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui would be the eligible receiver downfield. The Patriots ran the play as quickly as possible in order to prevent the Ravens to properly adjust to the new lineup, and New England was able to score a game-tying touchdown at that point before going on to win the game.
It was clever and crafty, for sure. Certainly gutsy on Belichick's part to call the play. It's also within the rules of the game. Most likely it was a play the Patriots had drawn up in their practices during the previous week to exploit the Ravens' obvious weakness in their secondary.
John Harbaugh was obviously not happy about the set up on the field, and his post-game conference he openly admitted to saying he took the penalty in order to give his defense time to adjust to the phony offensive line set up. Sneaky as the play was, the Ravens were still winning the game at that point, and had plenty of opportunity to close the door on the Patriots. One trick play didn't determine the outcome of the game, and the Ravens had even regained the lead following the Patriots' touchdown. Had their defense managed to get off the field on the Patriots' final drive, they'd be moving on to play Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game. Instead, they are planning on what to do for the NFL draft in April.
1. All in all, the Ravens had a successful, bounce back season compared to 2013. There was little place to go but up for the Ravens in 2014, and they have plenty to happy about. Joe Flacco had a career year, and the offense as a whole thrived under Gary Kubiak. Fortunately for Baltimore, Kubiak won't be looking for another head coaching job, despite the Bears' heavy interest in him. What they need to prioritize for next season is rebuilding their secondary, though having 5 cornerbacks returning from season-ending injuries will contribute to that strategy.
2. The Seahawks are almost unfathomably good. Seattle became the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots Saturday night, thumping the Panthers in the process. Carolina actually kept the game pretty close for the first half, but reality caught up in the second half as Seattle's defense poured it on. Kam Chancellor committed one of the great athletic feats in recent memory in the game by blocking a field goal, and then later picked off Cam Newton, returning the interception for a touchdown. Chancellor isn't nearly the household name that other Seahawks defensive players are, particularly Richard Sherman. He's every bit as good, though.
3. Dez Bryant didn't catch that ball, but it sucks that the game was ultimately decided on reversing a key play like that. By the letter of the law, Dez Bryant's catch was nullified the moment the ball hit the ground and dislodged it from his arm. The Cowboys/Packers game was another playoff classic, and the Cowboys were poised to score a possibly game-winning touchdown after converting a critical 4th down play. As much as I personally hate the Cowboys, I can't deny how great Tony Romo had played yesterday and how he was every bit as good as Aaron Rodgers was. While I disagree with Dez Bryant claiming he caught the ball, I do think he understands the rule in place. I also understand why he's as upset about it as he is, since no player would want a playoff game decided on reversing a critical play.
4. Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, he can only fake looking game-ready for so long. Rodgers claimed after the game that his calf muscle can last long enough for the NFC Champiionship Game and potentially Super Bowl 49, but he was hobbling around the field for most of the game yesterday. If the Packers do win in Seattle next weekend, he'll have a week to rest his calf muscle again to prepare for the Super Bowl. Packers fans everywhere have to hope that he doesn't injure his leg so severely in the championship game that he either can't play effectively or can't play at all in the Super Bowl (assuming the Packers win).
5. It's much, much too soon to start the "Was yesterday Peyton's last NFL game?" discussion. Manning did have arguably one of his worst playoff performances ever, and his demeanor following the game would suggest he's at least contemplating retirement. He has to be aware he's very close to the end of his career, and the loss on Sunday had to impact him emotionally. Still, Father Time will catch up to everyone on a long enough timeline. If I were a betting man, I'd bet that Manning has one year left in his career, though his best chance at another championship is almost certainly behind him.
6. Is there any reason not to expect a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl at this point? Super Bowl 48 was the first match up between two #1 seeds since Super Bowl 44 (Saints/Colts). I see no reason why we wouldn't have a second straight contest between #1 seeds at this point. Both the Patriots and Seahawks had defeated their opponents in their respective championship games earlier this season, though the Seahawks had faced the Packers back in the Thursday night season opener. Even if either the Colts or the Packers winning on Sunday would be a surprise, I'd be far less surprised to see the Packers winning than the Colts. Regardless, I think everyone is anticipating by late Sunday night that the Seahawks and Patriots will emerge victorious in their conference championship games.
Patriots running back Shane Vereen went to a ref prior to the play in question to inform him he would be an ineligible receiver, thus making him an offensive lineman on the upcoming play. Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui would be the eligible receiver downfield. The Patriots ran the play as quickly as possible in order to prevent the Ravens to properly adjust to the new lineup, and New England was able to score a game-tying touchdown at that point before going on to win the game.
It was clever and crafty, for sure. Certainly gutsy on Belichick's part to call the play. It's also within the rules of the game. Most likely it was a play the Patriots had drawn up in their practices during the previous week to exploit the Ravens' obvious weakness in their secondary.
John Harbaugh was obviously not happy about the set up on the field, and his post-game conference he openly admitted to saying he took the penalty in order to give his defense time to adjust to the phony offensive line set up. Sneaky as the play was, the Ravens were still winning the game at that point, and had plenty of opportunity to close the door on the Patriots. One trick play didn't determine the outcome of the game, and the Ravens had even regained the lead following the Patriots' touchdown. Had their defense managed to get off the field on the Patriots' final drive, they'd be moving on to play Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game. Instead, they are planning on what to do for the NFL draft in April.
1. All in all, the Ravens had a successful, bounce back season compared to 2013. There was little place to go but up for the Ravens in 2014, and they have plenty to happy about. Joe Flacco had a career year, and the offense as a whole thrived under Gary Kubiak. Fortunately for Baltimore, Kubiak won't be looking for another head coaching job, despite the Bears' heavy interest in him. What they need to prioritize for next season is rebuilding their secondary, though having 5 cornerbacks returning from season-ending injuries will contribute to that strategy.
2. The Seahawks are almost unfathomably good. Seattle became the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots Saturday night, thumping the Panthers in the process. Carolina actually kept the game pretty close for the first half, but reality caught up in the second half as Seattle's defense poured it on. Kam Chancellor committed one of the great athletic feats in recent memory in the game by blocking a field goal, and then later picked off Cam Newton, returning the interception for a touchdown. Chancellor isn't nearly the household name that other Seahawks defensive players are, particularly Richard Sherman. He's every bit as good, though.
3. Dez Bryant didn't catch that ball, but it sucks that the game was ultimately decided on reversing a key play like that. By the letter of the law, Dez Bryant's catch was nullified the moment the ball hit the ground and dislodged it from his arm. The Cowboys/Packers game was another playoff classic, and the Cowboys were poised to score a possibly game-winning touchdown after converting a critical 4th down play. As much as I personally hate the Cowboys, I can't deny how great Tony Romo had played yesterday and how he was every bit as good as Aaron Rodgers was. While I disagree with Dez Bryant claiming he caught the ball, I do think he understands the rule in place. I also understand why he's as upset about it as he is, since no player would want a playoff game decided on reversing a critical play.
4. Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, he can only fake looking game-ready for so long. Rodgers claimed after the game that his calf muscle can last long enough for the NFC Champiionship Game and potentially Super Bowl 49, but he was hobbling around the field for most of the game yesterday. If the Packers do win in Seattle next weekend, he'll have a week to rest his calf muscle again to prepare for the Super Bowl. Packers fans everywhere have to hope that he doesn't injure his leg so severely in the championship game that he either can't play effectively or can't play at all in the Super Bowl (assuming the Packers win).
5. It's much, much too soon to start the "Was yesterday Peyton's last NFL game?" discussion. Manning did have arguably one of his worst playoff performances ever, and his demeanor following the game would suggest he's at least contemplating retirement. He has to be aware he's very close to the end of his career, and the loss on Sunday had to impact him emotionally. Still, Father Time will catch up to everyone on a long enough timeline. If I were a betting man, I'd bet that Manning has one year left in his career, though his best chance at another championship is almost certainly behind him.
6. Is there any reason not to expect a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl at this point? Super Bowl 48 was the first match up between two #1 seeds since Super Bowl 44 (Saints/Colts). I see no reason why we wouldn't have a second straight contest between #1 seeds at this point. Both the Patriots and Seahawks had defeated their opponents in their respective championship games earlier this season, though the Seahawks had faced the Packers back in the Thursday night season opener. Even if either the Colts or the Packers winning on Sunday would be a surprise, I'd be far less surprised to see the Packers winning than the Colts. Regardless, I think everyone is anticipating by late Sunday night that the Seahawks and Patriots will emerge victorious in their conference championship games.
Monday, January 5, 2015
NFL 2015 Wild Card Weekend Snap Judgments
The big news over Wild Card weekend was the infamous reversal of a pass interference penalty on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens with about 8:30 to play in the game. Rarely have I ever felt the need to comment on officials screwing over a team because this will be one of the few exceptions. The NFL has never adequately addressed poor officiating in its games, starting with the obvious fact that none of these officials are full-time employees. They have little to lose when they screw the pooch, except maybe an extra bonus paycheck for being able to officiate a playoff game, up to and including the Super Bowl.
If any official or referee has ever been disciplined for fumbling a penalty during a game, the league has managed to keep it behind closed doors. The same goes for anyone who has been terminated from his position in officiating a game. These guys face no real consequences for any call they screw up during a game. The solution to the issue would be fairly obvious: employ full-time officials who are league employees, thus forcing them to be disciplined and/or terminated for any repeated failures in calling a game.
The flaw with that option is the league officials are unionized, so the odds of the league going the route of hiring full-time employees is slim at best.
1. The Cardinals may have used up their best chance at a championship run for a while. Carson Palmer's injury was devastating, and Bruce Arians may have been right when he said the team could still win a championship with Drew Stanton as their quarterback. Unfortunately, Stanton also got hurt, leaving Ryan Lindley as their starter the rest of the way. The Cardinals wound up losing 4 of their final 6 games of the regular season, and put on a historically bad offensive performance in Carolina on Saturday. While they'll get Palmer back next season, they almost certainly won't have their star receiver Larry Fitzgerald back, considering he carries over a $20 million cap hit in 2015. A competent quarterback can make a group of no-name receivers better, but with the likes of the Seahawks and Rams in their division as well, Arizona may be in line for a step backwards next season.
2. Time to cash in any chips you may have on the Panthers. Carolina played with house money the moment they won the putrid NFC South. They kept on taking from the house in limiting the Cardinals to 78 yards of total offense. Any betting fans out there probably don't need to be told this, but it's time to cash in whatever money is tied to the Panthers now that their next opponent is the Seahawks. The funny thing is that prior to the season, I had expected the Panthers to take a fairly big step backwards from their 2013 season, finishing around 8-8. They essentially did (7-8-1, but close enough), and still won back to back divisional titles. Barring the Falcons bringing in an all-star cast of new coaches and having a huge turnaround, I don't see anyone really challenging the Panthers in 2015 in their division. We may have yet another division winner finishing with 8 or 9 wins next season.
3. Joe Flacco once again reaffirmed who he is as a quarterback. We can finally put to rest the debate over what kind of player Joe Flacco is. He is a guy who is average to slightly above average during the regular season, but he takes his game up another level or two for the postseason. He won't win any awards like league MVP or Offensive Player of the Year, but who really cares? If the Ravens make another deep playoff run this year, Flacco is a guy who can put the team on his back.
4. Deep down in a private moment, Tom Brady has to be thinking the Patriots got a tough draw in the Divisional Round. The Ravens have time and again been one of the few teams in the league who have consistently given the Patriots fits over the last few years. Last year's blowout Patriots win in Baltimore is one of the only exceptions to this trend, with many more close contests and a few bonafide classic games (the 2012 AFC Championship Game immediately comes to mind, even though it was a heartbreaking loss for the Ravens). Given the rivalry's history, Brady has to realize to some degree that the Ravens present one of the toughest possible challenges to the Patriots chasing a championship this season. He won't admit it to the public or perhaps even to his own teammates, but he's seen enough of Terrell Suggs over the years to know what kinds of hits will be coming Saturday night.
5. The Bengals are the Buffalo Bills of Wild Card Weekend. That's now 4 straight playoff appearances with 4 straight losses in the first round for the Bengals. Andy Dalton wasn't quite the train wreck this year that he was in years past, but the Bengals still could only manage to score 10 points in the game. They've averaged 10.75 points in their 4 playoff losses, losing 3 of those 4 games by double digits. The big question at this point is whether Marvin Lewis is the right head coach for the team. He's had a total of 6 chances in the playoffs, but he's lost every single Wild Card game he's reached as Bengals head coach. If that isn't enough evidence to suggest the Bengals need to make a change, then I don't know what will.
6. The Lions, like the Cardinals, might have used up their best chance at a playoff run this year. Ndamakong Suh is an impending free agent, and his post game conference certainly gave the impression that he's played his last game in Detroit. The Lions still have Nick Fairley, though he has yet to play a full season in his career (he did play in 15 games in 2013 though). Their defense will take a hit next season, especially if defensive coordinator Teryl Austin gets a head coaching job. They could be another team that takes a step backward in 2015, along with the Cardinals.
7. I'm still not fully buying into the Cowboys. Tony Romo has shown all the signs of getting the proverbial monkey off his back, throwing 14 touchdown passes since the first week of December with only 1 interception along the way. He was clutch yesterday against the Lions, throwing a gutsy pass down the middle for the go-ahead and eventual winning score of the game. Despite all these positives, I still can't picture the Cowboys getting past the Packers in Green Bay next weekend. As well as the Cowboys have played on the road (especially Romo), Aaron Rodgers has just been better. Sunday's weather is projected to be a high of 20 and a low in the single digits, which would favor the Packers. I will gladly eat my words come next Monday if the Cowboys do pull out another win, but I don't see it happening.
Monday, December 29, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 17 Snap Judgments
No defending Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots, which is pretty remarkable when you really think about that. Four champions - the Steelers (twice), Giants, and Ravens - failed to even make the playoffs the following year during that same span. If that isn't a sign of how parity is rampant across the league, then I don't know what will.
Now we come to the curious case of the Seahawks. At one point, they were 3-3, and then later on they had traded away one of their primary playmakers on offense. There were all kinds of questions surrounding the leadership ability and overall trust in their quarterback. There is still talk of whether their running back - another big time offensive playmaker - will be back with the team next year.
Despite all that drama, the Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC going into the playoffs and have home field advantage the rest of the way. They only lost one home game this season, so they'd have to lay a fairly colossal egg to be handed an early exit in the postseason. Granted, #1 seeds have been sent home in either classic games (e.g. Ravens/Broncos two years ago), or coming out completely flat in their first game after their bye (e.g. Packers/Giants three years ago). Cliche as it sounds, I don't see the Seahawks coming out flat after they return from their bye week. They're too well-coached, and it would not surprise anyone if they became the first team since those 2004 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
1. Meanwhile, there will be some job opportunities opening up today. Jim Harbaugh is already out the door in San Francisco, and Woody Johnson is preparing to clean house for the Jets today as well. The Raiders are already in need of a head coach, and Chicago and Atlanta are also likely to have regime changes. Of those five organizations, it's hard to pick which one is the most attractive for anyone looking for a head coaching job. If the 49ers look outside the organization, on paper they'd have the best roster of players, but there's the obvious question of what kind of control and power a new head coach would have under GM Trent Baalke and owner Jed York. Chicago and Atlanta are roughly neck and neck in terms of how much rebuilding needs to be done. Chicago has a running back and elite group of receivers, but there are huge questions surrounding the quarterback and defense; Atlanta has a quarterback and elite receiver, but the Falcons need a running back, and serious help on both the offensive and defensive lines. The Jets are a complete mess, and the Raiders aren't in a much better position. I'm sticking with the 49ers as the team in need of a head coach right now that is closest to a "win now" position, but the competition in the NFC West is getting heavier with each passing season.
2. Justin Houston has not gotten the kind of attention he's deserved this season. I don't think I've brought Houston up at all this year, but he has had an incredible season playing for the Chiefs. He finished his 2014 season leading the league in sacks, finishing only 1.5 sacks behind Michael Strahan for the single-season record. If not for J.J. Watt, he'd be a very likely candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He's also an impending free agent, and early word is that he and the Chiefs are going to fight over his franchise tag in the offseason. He also turns 26 in January, so he's just starting to enter the prime of his career. He stands to make a ton of money with his next contract, so while the Chiefs would be wise to prevent him from hitting the free agent market, they'd be doing everyone a disservice if they can't work out a long-term deal with Houston.
3. The Browns are still a mess. Once upon a time, way back in the first week of November, the Browns were 5-3 and looking ready to take a big step towards competitiveness in the AFC North. Fast forward nearly two months later, and they managed to lose their final five games of the season. Johnny Manziel is quickly showing he doesn't take his job very seriously, and the front office is already very frustrated with his antics. I find it hard to believe that the franchise would look to drafting yet another quarterback early in the draft in April, but Manziel is already on a very thin thread with management. For whatever reason, the Browns just can't take a step forward without taking two steps back.
4. The Panthers might actually win a playoff game. Prior to the season, I thought the Panthers would take a pretty big step backwards after going 12-4 last year. I expected 8-8 was pretty likely, and as it turned out, that was extremely close to their 7-8-1 record. It was also enough to win the pathetic NFC South, and they'll host the Arizona Cardinals on Wild Card Weekend. With the quarterback position up in the air for the Cardinals, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the Panthers win a playoff game much like the 7-9 Seahawks did when they had beaten the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in 2010 as NFC West champions. In 2010 I felt the idea of a division winner finishing 8-8 or worse was a fluke; I was proven wrong this season, and I think the time has come for the NFL to rethink its postseason seeding procedures.
5. Joe Flacco finally showed some leadership moxie. The Ravens had an opportunity to return to the playoffs as the Chiefs beat up the Chargers yesterday. Instead of taking care of business at home during the first half, the Ravens' offense once again sputtered, putting up only 3 points in their final home game of the season. They were tied 3-3 at the half, and Flacco had enough. He gave an impassioned halftime speech, one that lit a fire on everyone in the locker room. They went out and put up 17 unanswered points to ultimately win the game and grab the final playoff spot in the AFC. That's the kind of leader Flacco has to be if the Ravens are going to win any playoff games this season. He may not be interesting or emotional in his press conferences, but he can light a fire when he has to in the huddle or in the locker room. If he can assert himself like that again Saturday night against the Steelers, the Ravens could make another playoff run.
6. The Giants will be an upstart team for 2015. The Giants' offense has a chance to be really, really good next year, with Victor Cruz returning and playing on the opposite side of Odell Beckham, Jr. If Eli Manning cuts back on his turnovers (which he did in 2014 over 2013), the Giants could be right in the mix with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East. They have to address Jason Pierre-Paul's contract and the rest of their defense in the draft, and if they do they can rebound next season. Call this a super early bold prediction sure to go wrong for next year.
Now we come to the curious case of the Seahawks. At one point, they were 3-3, and then later on they had traded away one of their primary playmakers on offense. There were all kinds of questions surrounding the leadership ability and overall trust in their quarterback. There is still talk of whether their running back - another big time offensive playmaker - will be back with the team next year.
Despite all that drama, the Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC going into the playoffs and have home field advantage the rest of the way. They only lost one home game this season, so they'd have to lay a fairly colossal egg to be handed an early exit in the postseason. Granted, #1 seeds have been sent home in either classic games (e.g. Ravens/Broncos two years ago), or coming out completely flat in their first game after their bye (e.g. Packers/Giants three years ago). Cliche as it sounds, I don't see the Seahawks coming out flat after they return from their bye week. They're too well-coached, and it would not surprise anyone if they became the first team since those 2004 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
1. Meanwhile, there will be some job opportunities opening up today. Jim Harbaugh is already out the door in San Francisco, and Woody Johnson is preparing to clean house for the Jets today as well. The Raiders are already in need of a head coach, and Chicago and Atlanta are also likely to have regime changes. Of those five organizations, it's hard to pick which one is the most attractive for anyone looking for a head coaching job. If the 49ers look outside the organization, on paper they'd have the best roster of players, but there's the obvious question of what kind of control and power a new head coach would have under GM Trent Baalke and owner Jed York. Chicago and Atlanta are roughly neck and neck in terms of how much rebuilding needs to be done. Chicago has a running back and elite group of receivers, but there are huge questions surrounding the quarterback and defense; Atlanta has a quarterback and elite receiver, but the Falcons need a running back, and serious help on both the offensive and defensive lines. The Jets are a complete mess, and the Raiders aren't in a much better position. I'm sticking with the 49ers as the team in need of a head coach right now that is closest to a "win now" position, but the competition in the NFC West is getting heavier with each passing season.
2. Justin Houston has not gotten the kind of attention he's deserved this season. I don't think I've brought Houston up at all this year, but he has had an incredible season playing for the Chiefs. He finished his 2014 season leading the league in sacks, finishing only 1.5 sacks behind Michael Strahan for the single-season record. If not for J.J. Watt, he'd be a very likely candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He's also an impending free agent, and early word is that he and the Chiefs are going to fight over his franchise tag in the offseason. He also turns 26 in January, so he's just starting to enter the prime of his career. He stands to make a ton of money with his next contract, so while the Chiefs would be wise to prevent him from hitting the free agent market, they'd be doing everyone a disservice if they can't work out a long-term deal with Houston.
3. The Browns are still a mess. Once upon a time, way back in the first week of November, the Browns were 5-3 and looking ready to take a big step towards competitiveness in the AFC North. Fast forward nearly two months later, and they managed to lose their final five games of the season. Johnny Manziel is quickly showing he doesn't take his job very seriously, and the front office is already very frustrated with his antics. I find it hard to believe that the franchise would look to drafting yet another quarterback early in the draft in April, but Manziel is already on a very thin thread with management. For whatever reason, the Browns just can't take a step forward without taking two steps back.
4. The Panthers might actually win a playoff game. Prior to the season, I thought the Panthers would take a pretty big step backwards after going 12-4 last year. I expected 8-8 was pretty likely, and as it turned out, that was extremely close to their 7-8-1 record. It was also enough to win the pathetic NFC South, and they'll host the Arizona Cardinals on Wild Card Weekend. With the quarterback position up in the air for the Cardinals, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the Panthers win a playoff game much like the 7-9 Seahawks did when they had beaten the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in 2010 as NFC West champions. In 2010 I felt the idea of a division winner finishing 8-8 or worse was a fluke; I was proven wrong this season, and I think the time has come for the NFL to rethink its postseason seeding procedures.
5. Joe Flacco finally showed some leadership moxie. The Ravens had an opportunity to return to the playoffs as the Chiefs beat up the Chargers yesterday. Instead of taking care of business at home during the first half, the Ravens' offense once again sputtered, putting up only 3 points in their final home game of the season. They were tied 3-3 at the half, and Flacco had enough. He gave an impassioned halftime speech, one that lit a fire on everyone in the locker room. They went out and put up 17 unanswered points to ultimately win the game and grab the final playoff spot in the AFC. That's the kind of leader Flacco has to be if the Ravens are going to win any playoff games this season. He may not be interesting or emotional in his press conferences, but he can light a fire when he has to in the huddle or in the locker room. If he can assert himself like that again Saturday night against the Steelers, the Ravens could make another playoff run.
6. The Giants will be an upstart team for 2015. The Giants' offense has a chance to be really, really good next year, with Victor Cruz returning and playing on the opposite side of Odell Beckham, Jr. If Eli Manning cuts back on his turnovers (which he did in 2014 over 2013), the Giants could be right in the mix with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East. They have to address Jason Pierre-Paul's contract and the rest of their defense in the draft, and if they do they can rebound next season. Call this a super early bold prediction sure to go wrong for next year.
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