2011 NFL Predictions

Football? We can has football this season??

I'm both relieved and excited that football will be back this year. I really didn't expect the labor negotiations to finish in time, but the season will go forward as scheduled. So once again, here are my predictions for the upcoming season...

1. The Detroit Lions will have a winning record this season. They were the laughing stock of the NFL for nearly a decade. But these are not the 2008 Lions who went 0-16. They have an elite receiver in Calvin Johnson. They have a strong running game. Their defensive line is just downright scary with Vanden Bosch, Suh, and Fairley. Matthew Stafford is the real deal assuming he can stay healthy. This group will win at least 9 games this season. They have a shot at 10 wins and a potential playoff berth if they get a lucky break or two in some swing games, but I think their chances at making the playoffs will be next season after they've had a year playing together.

2. The Houston Texans will win the AFC South. I had picked the Texans to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last year, and they stunk it up down the stretch. Knowing their secondary was their Achilles' heel, they signed a cornerback and safety to beef it up. The rest of their team is complete. Considering how wide open the AFC will be this year, the Texans have a real shot to go deep in the playoffs. Now you may ask, "Wait, what about the Colts?" Well....

3. The Colts will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2003. I had a funny feeling about the Colts' chances to make the playoffs again this year well before the last couple days. The team as a whole is getting old, especially Peyton. Now the odds are he'll miss at least the first couple games of the season with his neck injury, and since he's unable to practice, he'll be rusty after he finally does get to the field. The Colts will dig themselves into a hole early in the season, and could still potentially finish the season on a semi-strong note, but I don't see them finishing better than 8-8 this year.

4. Ray Rice will have an MVP-caliber season. This may sound like a bit of a homer pick, but I have several reasons to back my claim on this one. First, Rice is in a contract year. He's going to want to cash in big come this offseason. Players in skill positions like running back will want a major payday for their services (see: Chris Johnson), so he's going to punch it extra hard this season. Second, he's got Vonta Leach blocking for him at fullback. Leach is one of those great players you never hear about. The reason why Arian Foster led the NFL in rushing last year was because he had Leach blocking for him. All Leach does is block, block, block, and block. He's like a fifth offensive lineman. Lastly - and this is just a gut feeling - every running back has one crazy season in his career. Last year it was Peyton Hillis and Arian Foster. Before that it was Chris Johnson. Further back was the likes of LaDanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander. This year is Ray Rice's year. He's a fourth-year back with plenty of gas in his tank, and I really see him exploding on the field. The only problem is he won't be the MVP of the league because...

5. Philip Rivers will be the league MVP this season. Rivers is one of those guys who should be a household name, but ask random people on the street who the best QBs in the league are, and you'll get answers like Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, and maybe Rodgers. Those five guys all have one thing in common, and that is they've each won at least one Super Bowl. Rivers hasn't, but I think it's more because he plays in San Diego that people tend to forget about him. He's quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the past three seasons, and I really think he should've gotten more consideration for the MVP last year than he did. This year will be his year when he goes over the top. While we're talking quarterbacks here...

6. Sam Bradford will not have a sophomore slump. There have been many rookies who have had stand out rookie seasons, but their second year in the league they take a step back. Bradford will not be that kind of player. The NFC West is a pretty awful division, and the Rams should've won it last year. He's needed more receivers to throw to, and while their wide receivers don't have any one guy to stretch the field, he will lead the team to a division title.

7. The Miami Dolphins will be in line for Andrew Luck next year. This is one of those two-edged sword predictions, if you will. The Dolphins will have a really terrible season this year (I see them finishing with 3 wins), but that will put them in the driver's seat for drafting their first real franchise quarterback since Dan Marino. Head coach Tony Sparano won't likely be around for Luck, but a total regime change will be good for the team as a whole. They'll still be stuck in the division with the Jets and Patriots though.

8. The NFC South will be the best division in football. Every team in this division is better than it was last year. While Carolina won't be in any hunt to win the division or make the playoffs any time soon, it wouldn't surprise me at all if any of the other three teams won the division this year. Most other divisions have one or two really good teams and couple bottomfeeders, but this one has three strong teams and one on the rise. I wouldn't be that surprised if the final winner of the division finished with 10 wins this year.

9. Someone will pick off the Eagles in the playoffs. Oh, the Eagles are my hometown team. I want to see them win. If Vick ever does win a Super Bowl, his detractors will have to shut up about his football skills if nothing else. But that won't happen this year. Their secondary looks ridiculous with Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie, Asante Samuel, and Nnamdi Asomugha running the show. Their receivers are solid, and they have two strong running backs. But their offensive line is showing signs of being a weakness, and you can pretty much pencil Vick in for missing at least 4 games a season due to injury. The Packers, Saints, or Falcons can rattle Vick and cause a couple turnovers, leading to putting points on the board and force the Eagles to fight from behind. And if the Eagles do get bounced in the playoffs....

10. The Green Bay Packers will repeat as Super Bowl champions. Don't look now, but the NFC is back, kids. It's already won three of the past four Super Bowls, and the Packers winning back-to-back titles will make it four of five. Most teams only enjoy a Super Bowl for about five minutes before they realize they have a target on their backs, but this year's Packers team will actually be better than last year's winners. They'll get Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley back. They've got the best young linebacker in the game in Clay Matthews. Aaron Rodgers is already one of the top three quarterbacks in the game, and there's no reason to think he can't be the single best QB overall.