This is, in fact, still a thing. I have no idea who reads or cares about these predictions, but they're still fun to write after
*looks up blog history, gasps*
six years (!!!!!) of writing them. Who cares about being right? It's still fun.
1. No division champion in the NL will repeat in 2019. Both the NL East and Central are incredibly deep this year. The Braves and Brewers have done remarkably little over the winter to improve their clubs from last year, leaving the door open for their rivals to close the gap. The Phillies made all kinds of moves, bringing in Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and - oh yeah! - Bryce Harper. The Nationals added Patrick Corbin. The Mets brought in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. While the Braves still have an incredible amount of young talent, they don't have enough to keep pace with their primary rivals.
Meanwhile, the Reds and Cardinals made numerous moves of their own to catch the Brewers. I looked at the Reds late last season and felt if they had added to their starting pitching, they'd compete for the division in 2019. Then they added Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray. In what looks like a total slug fest, I actually like the Reds' chances at coming out on top based on their amazing lineup.
Then there's the NL West. The Dodgers have owned that division for years and really never had much competition until last year when the Rockies made things interesting late. I really like the Rockies to take the division outright this year with German Marquez and Kyle Freeland anchoring their rotation. The Dodgers are getting old really fast and news broke today that neither Clayton Kershaw nor Walker Buehler will be ready for Opening Day. They had plenty of windfall in their favor the last two years, but those were their best chances to win a title.
2. Aaron Judge will break the MLB record for most home runs during the first three years of a player's career. Judge only needs 32 home runs to break this record, so it's less of a prediction than an inevitability. He'll shatter the record currently held by Albert Pujols.
3. The Astros will be the first time in MLB history to win at least 100 games in three consecutive seasons. It's fairly difficult to fathom, but no team has ever won 300 or more games in a three year span. It's happened a couple times in back-to-back seasons, but the Astros will be the first to accomplish it for the third straight time. They're just too stacked on offense, defense, and pitching.
4. The Diamondbacks will score the fewest runs in baseball this year. I really didn't do this intentionally, but I've actually got a history of predicting which team will score the most or fewest runs in a season (here and here). The Diamondbacks traded away Paul Goldschmidt and lost AJ Pollock in free agency, and only brought in Adam Jones as a replacement. Calling that a barren lineup would be extremely polite. The Marlins might give them a run for their proverbial money in offensive ineptitude, but at least Lewis Brinson and Brian Anderson have some upside for Miami. There isn't anyone with real upside in Arizona at the moment.
5. The Nationals' offense will be better without Bryce Harper than it ever was with him. On the flip side of offensive firepower, the Nationals will score runs a plenty this season. They'll have Juan Soto all year long, paired with Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and their top prospect Victor Robles. They also have one of the better rotations in all of baseball now that they had added Patrick Corbin. They won't miss Harper one bit, despite him playing for a divisional rival now.
6. The Indians' starting pitching will be undone by their outfield. I had to look up who was listed on the Indians' outfield depth chart because I had no earthly idea who was on there. Even though there are a few days left to finalize rosters, the Indians currently have names such as Jordan Luplow, Leonys Martin, Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, and Tyler Naquin. I had never heard of Luplow or Allen; I'm sure they're perfectly nice guys who must have done some good stuff to impress Terry Francona, but I can't figure out what he could possibly have seen in either of them. All this leads me to suspect there will be some atrocious outfield defense for the Indians this year. Their starting pitching is normally among the best in baseball, but it could be completely undermined by the guys tracking down fly balls in the outfield.
7. Eugenio Suarez and Mike Trout will be the league MVPs. Suarez has taken off the last two years, becoming a premiere bat in the middle of a loaded Cincinnati lineup. He'll become even more of a household name this year by holding off other heavy hitters like Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon, and Kris Bryant (and that's just among 3B in the NL). The Reds are a team I really like heading into the season, even in what looks like an incredibly competitive NL Central.
And then there's Mike Trout. Yawn. Honestly, what could I possibly say about him that hasn't already been said thousands of times already? Is there a stat that doesn't show him to be one of the greatest players of all time in the sport? If there is, I have yet to find it.
8. Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole will win the Cy Young Awards. Nola came close to winning the Cy Young last year, finishing third in the voting. The Phillies rewarded him with a four-year contract extension, and Nola will capitalize on that by taking the next step to becoming a true ace in a division filled with incredible starting pitching.
Meanwhile, Cole is in a contract year and will cash in big time as he approaches free agency. He'll make the Astros have to push extra hard to keep him around the way they have locked up Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Justin Verlander. Trouble is, they can't sign everyone on their team, so he could price himself out of Houston. But that's okay because.....
9. The Houston Astros will defeat the Washington Nationals in the World Series. Astroball is no joke. I know this because a) I read the book as any Orioles fan should, and more importantly b) the Astros have already won a World Series using these tactics. They're just too good of a team.
The Nationals would be a bit of a surprise team since they have yet to get past the NLDS, but there's no denying how successful they've been in building their team. Like I said earlier, I think they are a more complete team across the board even without Bryce Harper. Almost more importantly though, they will resurrect a stat that I had discovered last year that I felt doesn't get enough attention across baseball: For the period of 2001-2017, the World Series had featured at least one team every year who did not make the playoffs the previous season. The Brewers came extremely close to keeping the streak alive in 2018 but fell short in Game 7 of the NLCS. Washington will bring that trend back in 2019.
