And here we are, only 24 hours away from the start of the 2019 NFL season. I still find enjoyment from writing these predictions, regardless of whether anyone out there in cyberspace even reads these things. I promise to make no mention of Antonio Brown anywhere here because I refuse to give in to that circus (I don't even watch Hard Knocks for the same reason).
I find it amazing that I even tend to get one or two predictions right every year, which I have to believe is pretty close to what most talking heads on TV networks get right as well.
1. The Baltimore Ravens will be the first team since the 2009 Panthers with two 1000-yard rushers. The Ravens had reinvented their offense last year when Lamar Jackson took over at QB from an injured Joe Flacco. They had run the ball down opposing defenses' throats and only hit a wall when they had faced the Chargers for the second time in three weeks in the playoffs. The Ravens added Mark Ingram in free agency and drafted Justice Hill, both of whom expect will be among league leaders in rushing yards in 2019. This is the first time in years when Ravens fans have good reason to be excited about the team's offense.
2. The Kansas City Chiefs will miss the playoffs. This prediction looks bona fide crazy at face value. The Chiefs had gone all the way to the AFC Championship Game last year and took the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots to overtime. If not for Dee Ford lining up offsides, the Chiefs would have won that game and history would be quite different. All that brings me to my point: this Chiefs team is bound for regression this year. Their defense is still really, really bad, and losing Kareem Hunt (albeit for very justifiable reasons) will have heavy impacts on their offense.
Every year, there are one or two teams who had made the playoffs the previous season but stumbled the following year. The Ravens went from 10-6 and reaching the Divisional Round of the playoffs following the 2014 season to 5-11 in 2015. In 2016 the Packers went from NFC North champions to finishing 7-9 and out of the playoffs in 2017. In 2017 the Jaguars went 10-6 and went to the AFC Championship Game but finished 5-11 last year. I could keep going on, but I think I made my point. And it's not just the Chiefs who struggle this year after making a deep playoff run last year because....
3. The Seattle Seahawks will be the only team in the NFC West to finish over .500. Yes, this includes the NFC Champion Rams who still look as loaded as they did in 2018. The Super Bowl Hangover is real, folks. History has shown time and again that the team who loses the Super Bowl stumbles the following season. There is no logical reason for it, really. It just is.
And there is really no need to explain the 49ers nor Cardinals here either.
4. The Dallas Cowboys will be the first team in the NFC East to repeat as division champs since the 2003/2004 Eagles. This is more about the Eagles just not quite having enough to supplant the Cowboys this year. I expect Jerry Jones will blink at some point and sign Ezekiel Elliot to the kind of deal Elliott desires so he will play the entire season. And just like the NFC West, there is no need to say anything about the Giants or Redskins.
5. Alex Mattison will finish with more yards and touchdowns than Dalvin Cook. Cook looked like a future superstar running back early in his rookie season two years ago, but a torn ACL brought his career to a screeching halt. He didn't show much more last year, though it could at least be partially explained by his return from injury. I still like Mattison to emerge as the Vikings' every down RB long term.
6. The Chicago Bears will start the season 5-0. The Bears will show that last year's upstart team was not a fluke. Their first five games are by no means a cakewalk (vs Packers; @ Denver; @ Redskins; vs Vikings; @ Raiders) but they are all winnable games. They'll need those wins too, considering their schedule post-Week 6 bye includes the Saints, Chargers, Rams, and Cowboys. In fact, with a second half schedule like that the Bears almost need to start the season 5-0 in order to have a shot at the playoffs again.
7. Ezekiel Elliott will be the league MVP. This prediction was screwed up because my original call would have been Andrew Luck, and he....well....you know. Elliott turned into my plan B, but even he was a dicey choice until earlier this morning, and Cowboys fans can all sleep much easier at night now heading into the season. I expect Zeke will have a slow start since he wasn't with the team throughout the preseason, but by Week 3 he'll be all systems go and won't look back.
8. It's the final swan song for Drew Brees. It's quite shocking that Brees has never won a league MVP during his career to date. I thought about taking him in light of Luck's retirement, and while Brees will have another typical season (and quietly, as he always seems to do), Zeke will be an even bigger difference maker for Dallas. However, even though Brees will close out his final year in the NFL without a league MVP to his resume, it won't matter because....
9. The New Orleans Saints will defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in Super Bowl 54. John Elway. Ray Lewis. Jerome Bettis. Peyton Manning. They all walked off the field as Super Bowl champions, and Drew Brees will join them. The Saints defense typically starts out seasons shaky, but they turn things up by mid year, and that will carry them through January.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are primed for a disastrous start to the season with Derwin James on IR and Melvin Gordon nowhere to be found. At least they can expect James to be back by mid-season, but Gordon is a major wild card. Despite those (very justified) questions, Philip Rivers will still put his team on his back and put the team in the best position to finally win a championship. They'll just come up a little short.
