The world is starting to get back to normal, albeit very slowly. I actually didn't expect the NFL season to be played in full, and it sure looks like the MLB season will not only begin on time but fans will be allowed into stadiums now. We're still a very long way away from being totally back to normal, but at least there's a light at the end of the tunnel. So unlike this time last year, there's a point to making my normal preseason predictions.
1. The Toronto Blue Jays will win the American League East. The last time the Blue Jays won the division, they were a surprise team that came largely out of nowhere. While they made the playoffs last year as a Wild Card, they will take a major jump forward and steal the division away from the Rays and Yankees. They added George Springer and Marcus Semien to their already stacked lineup, and Nate Pearson will join their rotation at some point once he recovers from his groin injury.
The Yankees have a bear in Gerrit Cole, but their lineup is extremely unbalanced. DJ Lemehieu and Gleyber Torres are certainly reliable, but Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are injured far too often to count on them. And is Gary Sanchez really expected to still be the primary catcher?
As for the Rays, they were a stunning team to go all the way to the World Series against the Dodgers. However in years past they play way over their heads one season and quickly return to Earth the following season. They'll still be good, but not good enough to win the division again.
2. The St. Louis Cardinals will finish with the best record in the National League. I still don't know how the Cardinals acquired Nolan Arenado without having to give up any prospect of significance. Adding him to their lineup makes them the best team in the NL Central by a fairly wide margin; only the Brewers avoided dismantling their roster over the off-season. Both the Cardinals and Brewers will beat up the other three teams in the Central, and the Cardinals will win enough games head to head against Milwaukee that they'll finish with over 100 wins this year.
3. The Philadelphia Phillies will finish last in the NL East. It's already been an ugly, ugly year for Philly sports fans, considering everything the Eagles have dealt with in the last three months. Baseball will bring them no relief, with the Phillies finishing dead last in their division. They just don't have the talent to keep up with the rest of the division, especially the Braves and Mets. Consider the following:
- Their rotation after Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler is projected as Zach Elfin, Matt Moore, and Chase Anderson. That's just....ugh.
- Their bullpen consists of Hector Neris, Jose Alvarado, Tony Watson, Connor Brogdon, and Brandon Kintzler. Of this bunch, only Alvarado had an ERA under 4.00 last year. And they signed Archie Bradley to be their new closer.
- Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Nola, and JT Realmuto will make nearly $120 million combined this year. McCutchen, Segura, and Gregorius are all over 30 years old and will show their age this year. It's a lot of money wasted for a team that had tanked several years ago with the expectations of competing now.
5. Zac Gallen and Lucas Giolito will be the Cy Young winners. Gallen hasn't pitched more than 80 innings in a season thus far, but he will quickly emerge among the best pitchers in the NL. I thought about picking Jack Flaherty for NL Cy Young, and while I still expect a big year from him Gallen will still have the superior season.
Speaking of young pitchers emerging among the league's elite, the same can be said about Giolito. The White Sox are ready to be a true contender now that their young core players are established major leaguers, and Giolito will headline their rotation.
6. Ronald Acuna will have a 40/40 season. Acuna came only 3 stolen bases shy of having a 40/40 season in 2019, and he's only going to keep getting better. He and Fernando Tatis, Jr, are two of the most exciting players in baseball, and they will have an MVP race for the ages this year. Tatis will come up just a little short this year, because....
7. Ronald Acuna and Vlad Guerrero Jr will be league MVPs. Acuna will edge out Tatis for NL MVP for the reason discussed above. Meanwhile in the AL, Vlad Guerrero, Jr, will break out and show why he was the former #1 overall prospect in baseball with an 80-grade hit tool. Plus it's no fun to keep picking Mike Trout for AL MVP.
8. The San Diego Padres will defeat the Chicago White Sox in the World Series. Even though Fernando Tatis, Jr, will miss out on winning league MVP, it won't matter since he will hoist up a World Series trophy in October. It'll be a series filled with some of the best young talent the league has to offer, starting with Tatis and including Manny Machado, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert. If this isn't enough to be a huge ratings win for MLB, then nothing will.
