2012 NFL Predictions Sure to Go Wrong

Yes, kids - football is in the air once again.  That also means it's time for my annual season predictions!  Feel free to tell me they suck and I have no idea what I'm talking about; after all, in my previous NFL predictions I haven't gotten more than three or four correct at any one time. 

1. The Buffalo Bills will be a Wild Card team this year.  Bills fans have had much to cry about for more than a decade now.  The last couple years the team has gotten off to a fast start - they went 5-2 in their first 7 games last season, but went on to lose 8 of their final 9 games - but they haven't been able to sustain that kind of momentum down the stretch.  This year will be different.  I think the Bills will win at least 9 games and grab one of the two Wild Card spots this season.  Mario Williams will be a fantastic addition on their defensive line, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is 100% healthy after his rib injury that gave him grief last year.

2. The New Orleans Saints will not finish any higher than third in their division.  I might even be a little generous with saying they could finish third in the highly competitve NFC South.  With head coach Sean Payton suspended for the entire year, and several other key players suspended for at least a few games, I don't see how the Saints will be able to compete this season.  Drew Brees will still lead the offense to scoring lots of points, but their defense won't be able to stop anyone and the coaching staff will lack continuity.  It's going to be a rough year in the Big Easy.

3. Tim Tebow will be the starting QB for the New York Jets for at least half the season.  Speaking of rough seasons, I think the Jets are really going to fall off a cliff.  Mark Sanchez hasn't shown any signs of progressing as the starting quarterback, and I think he'll have the plug pulled on him during the season.  The Jets' real problem all along is that they lacked leadership on the field, and at least Tebow is a proven leader.  Still, I don't think the Jets win more than 5 games this season.

4. The NFC North will send three teams to the playoffs.  I really, really like the Lions.  I had originally thought about predicting them to win the North outright (I think they could win as many as 12 games this season), but I couldn't quite pull the trigger on that prediction.  I think the Packers still win the North, but the Lions have an even stronger season this year than last season, and the Bears could be really good as long as Cutler and Forte stay healthy on the offense. 

5. Ken Whisenhunt will be one of the first head coaches who finds himself on the hot seat.  Conversely, I am really down on the Cardinals.  Their quarterback situation is up in the air, despite John Skelton looking like he'll be the Week 1 starter.  Their running game doesn't look so hot, but they still have Larry Fitzgerald making opposing defensive backs look like kids, and they have a solid #2 in Michael Floyd.  They have three east coast trips this season, and they never play well on the east coast.  I don't think they win more than 6 games this season, so Whisenhunt could face being unemployed if the season gets away from him. 

6. The Jacksonville Jaguars will wind up with the #1 overall pick in next year's draft.  Yeah, that's a fairly indirect way of saying the Jaguars will be terrible this year - I don't see them winning more than 2 games - but if they do have the #1 pick in the NFL draft, they face a very interesting situation: Do they stick with Blaine Gabbert at QB, who was their first round selection in 2011, or do they draft presumptive #1 QB Matt Barkley from USC?  That's a real dilemma for the Jaguars' front office.

7. The Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, and reigning Super Bowl champion New York Giants all miss the postseason.  This round of predictions is much more "who's in and who's out of the playoffs" than my last couple sets of NFL predictions.  If you look back on the last decade or so of the league, the prevalent trend is that there are usually 5 or 6 teams who made the playoffs in a given year, but fail to return to the playoffs the following season.  I think Andy Dalton is going to have the traditional sophomore slump, which puts the Bengals in a bind most of the season.  I think the Broncos will finish with roughly the same record they had last year, even with Peyton Manning at quarterback, and that will leave them home in January.  And lest anyone forget, the Giants were only 9-7 last season, which I don't think will get it done in the NFC East this year.

8. Cam Newton will be the league MVP.  I'm drinking the Cam Newton Kool-Aid.  He had an outstanding rookie season, and I think he's primed to build on it in 2012.  I think Carolina winds up winning the NFC South this year and brings some excitement back to the fan base, something missing since their Super Bowl appearance against the Patriots.  I love his attitude and watching him play, and I realize this pick is a bit more outside the box than picking someone more typical like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or maybe even Arian Foster.

9. It's the final swan song for Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  Hey, I wish these guys could find the secret to immortality and keep playing until the end of time.  They've both been asked about retirement about as many times as Brett Favre was over the course of his last few seasons in the league (though Reed has hinted about it much more strongly than Lewis ever has), and I think this year they both hang it up for good.  I'm sure their retirement will depends a lot on how far the Ravens go this season, which is why I say....

10.  The Baltimore Ravens will beat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 47.  I picked this same matchup and outcome two years ago, and ended up with egg on my face.  This is one of those "head vs. heart" picks for a bunch of reasons.  First and foremost, I want to see my team win it all, and see Ray Lewis and Ed Reed both pull a John Elway to retire as champions.  On the other hand, I have no idea how well the defense will play without Suggs for at least half the season.  I would love to see Sergio Kindle become the player the Ravens had hoped him to be when they drafted him two years ago, but I have no idea what he'll put out on the field.  Then again, who else in the AFC can really put together a run?  I expect the Steelers will grab the other Wild Card in the conference, but I could see them getting picked off along the way.  The Patriots are always going to be competitve, but I don't know how well their defense will play throughout the season.  The Texans are a legitimate threat, but who knows if Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson stay healthy?  It's worth noting that I expect the AFC title game to be Baltimore vs. Houston, and those two teams face off in October, so that game could go a long way towards deciding who gets the #1 seed in the playoffs.
.
As for the NFC, I think it's fairly safe to say it'll come down to Green Bay vs. San Francisco.  Those two teams also face off in Week 1, so that game could be a big factor as to where those two teams play in January.  Still, I think the Packers represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

I'm still the first to admit that I'm going with my heart instead of my head here.  The Ravens are certainly just as likely to get picked off as any other team in the hunt, and even if they ultimately do reach the big game, there's no guarantee they'd beat the Packers.  If I had to go with my head, I'd take the Texans to reach the Super Bowl this year, but I think they'd lose to the Packers.  So I'm covering myself there, even if it does mean I'm cheating.

Enjoy the season!