I am switching up my preseason predictions for baseball this year. Normally I just pick divisional winners, World Series champs, and major award winners. This time I'm changing things up to match the theme I use for my NFL season predictions, so here we go....
1. The Yankees and Red Sox will both fail to make the playoffs. Many baseball talking heads on TV seem to think the Red Sox will be much improved this season. Admittedly, they can't be much worse than they were last season, and they certainly had no choice but to fire Bobby Valentine for the job he did (or rather, didn't do). But how exactly has the team improved? They have no power bats in their lineup now that Adrian Gonzalez is long gone, their starting pitching is slightly above average, and their speed is average. How are they going to even finish above .500, much less make a playoff run?
As for the Yankees, there's a real chance that Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez could miss most, if not all, of the upcoming season. Curtis Granderson is also out until nearly Memorial Day, which leaves Robinson Cano as the only power in their lineup. That's anything but intimidating.
2. Mike Trout will come back to Earth. Mike Trout's rookie season was one for the history books. I have no doubt he will be an elite player for his career long term, but I would be shocked if he kept up the same pace he had set last year. He's the consensus #1 overall pick for fantasy baseball, but I don't see how he could put up the kinds of numbers this year that he did last year. Pitchers and catchers will figure him out, and he'll face a learning curve this season.
3. The Pirates will finally have a winning season. The Pirates gave their fans something to cheer about for the first time in 20 years last year, looking destined to contend for the divisional title. They tapered off in August and September, but they have a good core of young players, led by Andrew McCutchen. I don't know if they'll make a playoff run this year, but Gerritt Cole will anchor their pitching staff by season's end and for the foreseeable future.
4. The Tigers' margin of victory in the AL Central will be the widest of all divisional winners. The Tigers somehow managed to underachieve most of the season, until a late push edged out the White Sox and resulted in them winning the division. I don't think winning the Central will be a cake walk necessarily, but given how almost every other division has at least two teams who could realistically win the division, I don't see any other division winner with a wider margin of victory than the Tigers. The White Sox and Indians will both be good, and the Royals might actually be ready to compete more, but I expect the Tigers to still win the division by at least 5 games over the next team in line.
5. At least three teams will lose over 100 games. Miami, Houston, and Minnesota will all field the equivalent of Triple-A teams this year. They're all deep into rebuilding mode, and are a long way off from contending again. Miami fans in particular have a reason to be upset since the team had been so aggressive in spending money in the off-season a year ago. Now the only notable player the Marlins have left is Giancarlo Stanton, and I wouldn't blame him if he wanted out too.
6. The Braves' outfielders will combine for over 90 home runs. The Braves' trio of Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers is the best overall outfield I can recall in memory. I'm really pressed to think of a trio of teammates with a better combination of power and speed than those three guys, and if anyone can think of a better group of outfielders on the same team, please tell me.
7. The Rangers will not finish any higher than third in the AL West. The Rangers are by no means a bad team, but they have to compete with the Angels (who have too much power and pitching to underachieve yet again) and the A's (who played with house money for most of last year, but aren't going to fall backward). The Mariners are better too, and could end up in a dogfight with the Rangers for third place in their division.
8. Stephen Strasburg and Jered Weaver will win the Cy Young Award. Strasburg is going to play this season with a chip on his shoulder, given how the Nationals stuck to their guns about shutting him down after pitching 160 innings last year. This time, he will be Strasburg Unchained, and he is going to dominate opposing lineups. Meanwhile, Weaver has consistently quietly put together one good season after another, and this year he will have too good of a lineup to give him run support to go along with his strikeout numbers.
9. Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista will win the league MVPs. There are a number of similarities between these two guys. Both had injuries cut their 2012 seasons short, and I expect both to bounce back in 2013 in big ways. They could both lead their individual leagues in home runs, and I expect them both to lead their respective teams into the playoffs come October.
10. The Reds will defeat the Angels in the World Series in 7 games. I normally don't get more than 3 predictions correct per season in this format, but if this prediction comes true I think we could get one of the greatest World Series ever. It would almost certainly be the best World Series so far in the 21st century, and there would be plenty of story lines for the average baseball fan to enjoy.
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