Fans seem to be jumping on Joe Flacco and his monster $120 million contract as the reason why the Ravens are clearing house. That's a ridiculously stupid thing to say on many levels, not the least of which being Flacco is only being paid $6.8 million in 2013. The team intentionally backloaded his contract as many teams do with big money contracts awarded to veteran players to avoid having to cut even more players now. The organization also wants the team to get younger as a whole, which is a smart move for the future. It just looks worse than it otherwise would since the team just won the Super Bowl.
I have my own take on this series of movies which is a little outside the box, but it's had precedent in the NFL. I just ask you to stay with me and hear me out before you decide to flame me.
I don't really care if the Ravens are competitive in 2013. In fact, I hope the team tanks the season in order to get a high draft pick after next season.
I'll give you a moment to pick your jaw up off the floor.
The obvious question you're probably asking is, "Why?" Allow me to answer.
Next year one of the premiere prospects coming out of college is South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. He would have declared for the NFL draft this year, except he is only 2 years removed from high school, and the NFL requires players to be at least 3 years removed from high school before declaring for the draft. His own head coach even went on record to say he is ready for the league now, and college has merely been a formality for him before he goes pro.
Clowney is 6'6" and weighs 275 lbs as a defensive end. He recently ran a 40 yard dash in 4.5 seconds, which is insanely fast for a man of his size. He also can play defensive tackle and linebacker in addition to defensive end, making him the ultimate defensive hybrid player. He is generally considered one of the best prospects coming out of college at any position in years, particularly on defense.
Considering all his attributes, it's no surprise to consider that he will certainly be drafted near the very top of next year's draft, possibly #1 overall. And I would run through the streets of Baltimore screaming at the top of my lungs like a little girl if the Ravens somehow got him.
Of course, such an opportunity would come at a fairly high price, that being the Ravens would have to be no lower than third overall in next year's draft order, depending on what other college players choose to go pro next year. In theory, the Ravens could find themselves in the top ten draft order, and then move higher in order to get him, but moves like those typically come at high prices (see: Griffin III, Robert). They certainly wouldn't be able to move high enough in order to get Clowney if their draft position is in the mid to late 20s, or even in the teens for that matter.
No, the only feasible way I can see the Ravens having a chance at landing Clowney would be if they draft in the top ten next year, which means they have to have a really bad 2013 season. I'm talking win 5 games at most this season.
Such a season would be a classic "lose the battle, win the war" type of situation. Fans would be incredibly outraged, and probably even blame Flacco and his contract all over again for putting the team in this chaos. Even if the Ravens did land Clowney, it could be two years at least before the team reaps the benefits of getting him. That's an incredibly tough pill for most fans to swallow after watching the team make the playoffs for 5 consecutive years,win two division championships, and a Super Bowl title.
But Clowney fits the kind of players Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome likes. He loves hybrid defensive players like Terrell Suggs and Courtney Upshaw, and Clowney would fit in perfectly with those two guys. Add in another inside linebacker from this year's draft - like, say, Alec Ogletree or Kevin Minter - and the Ravens' front seven on defense would be set for years to come.
Like I said earlier, there has been precedent for moves like this. The most recent example of a team having an awful season and landing a grade A prospect in the draft is the Colts from 2011. Peyton Manning didn't play at all that season while he was recovering from his neck surgery, and the team had no other option at quarterback that season. They ended up only winning 2 games and landed the first pick in last year's draft. They took Andrew Luck, who was generally considered the best quarterback coming out of college since...well, Peyton Manning.
The Colts bounced back this past season, won 11 games, and got into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They're now set at quarterback for the next decade and can build the rest of their team around Luck.
Lose the battle, win the war.
I'm fully aware if next season played out like this, it'd be an extremely hard sell on the fans. I'd probably be just as frustrated as the rest of Ravens Nation, and I'd find myself looking forward to the 2014 baseball season very early on. I might not even watch too many Ravens games if they find themselves at 2-7 during the course of the season (which isn't too crazy considering they have games against the Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Packers, Vikings, and Bears next season in addition to their division opponents).
Hey, if it means landing Jadeveon Clowney, I'll bite the bullet. But then, this is why fans aren't allowed to be GMs.
No one non-QB player would ever, ever mean that much. Even JJ Watt was credited with only 2.3 WPA and he was sent here from space. Dream elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteIn light of the Ravens signing Elvis Dumervil yesterday, my entire argument is now moot. I will happily eat crow and admit how foolish my original idea was. I will also say that I have learned my lesson and never question Ozzie Newsome's strategy going forward.
ReplyDelete