NFL Week 4 Snap Judgments

Remember what I said last week about the good teams starting to separate themselves from the crappy teams?  Yeah, never mind.

I still don't trust the Patriots, even though they won Sunday night.  The Broncos and Seahawks are clearly each conference's best team, but when was the last time the Super Bowl featured a pair of #1 seeds in the game?  The last time a #1 seed even won the Super Bowl was the 2009 Saints, but I can't remember the last time both top seeds even got to the big game.

Then there are a bunch of teams like the Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Falcons, Bengals, and Redskins who have at least hit stumbling blocks, if not flat out underachieved so far this season.  So just how many teams can be seen as true contenders in the league right now?

I know talking like this is absurdly premature, and it probably won't be another month or so before we really know which teams could realistically make a Super Bowl run.  I still have this feeling that this year's champ will have a run similar to what the last three Super Bowl champs had - a hot run starting in mid to late December, followed by a big push come January.

With that said, let's switch things up a bit by taking a look at each division through four weeks.

1. The AFC East: It ain't just the Patriots and a bunch of lousy teams anymore.  I am a believer in the Dolphins.  I don't care that they were easily handled by the Saints last night.  I was a little hesitant to pick them to win the AFC East before the season, but as each week passes I am more and more confident that they will win the division this year, forcing the Patriots to fight for a Wild Card spot.  I have no idea what to make of the Bills yet, because even though they beat the Ravens on Sunday, they still found themselves in a position where the Ravens could have at least forced overtime, if not drove down field to win the game with a touchdown.  And the Jets are, sadly, still the Jets.

2. The AFC North: Mediocrity is king.  Three of the four teams are 2-2, and the Steelers are 0-4.  The Ravens and Bengals shot themselves in the foot this past weekend, but I think the Ravens in particular inflicted a lot of self-damage for a couple reasons.  First, five interceptions speak for themselves, but at least two interceptions were not Flacco's fault (an argument could be made for a third not being his fault either).  Factoring in the atrocious offensive line play and pathetic run defense, and there's plenty of blame to go around the entire team for their loss.  Then again, the fact that the Ravens even had a chance to tie the game if not win it outright at the end says an awful lot about how bad the Bills played as well.  They had the Ravens down dead to rights when they were up 20-7, so the Ravens had no business having a chance to win that game at all.

Then there's the Bengals/Browns game.  I don't know how the Browns have done it, but they have won their last two games in pretty convincing fashion.  They took the Bengals' best player out of the game completely, and made Andy Dalton look below average at best.  I didn't think the Bengals were quite ready to compete for the division title this year, and this weekend is a pretty good indicator that I was right about that.

3. The AFC South: The Texans are doing exactly what I had expected them to do.  I said in my predictions that I expected the Colts to steal the division away from the Texans, implying it would be a close match down the stretch.  It may not be as close as I had originally expected.  If the Texans continue to blow 17-point leads like they did to the Seahawks (at home, no less), they could very well find themselves on the outside of the playoff hunt looking in, especially with the Chiefs bouncing back this year in a big way.  The Titans are overachieving so reality will settle in on them being a mediocre team, and the Jaguars could probably be beaten by at least a few college teams, especially Alabama.

4. The AFC West: The Chiefs could wind up with at least 10 wins but not be able to host a playoff game.  Talk about a raw deal for the Chiefs.  They've pulled a 180-degree turnaround from where they were a year ago, and already doubled their win total from 2012.  And yet because they are in the same division as the Broncos, they would have to go on the road for the playoffs.  Andy Reid is an early pick (a VERY early pick) for Coach of the Year at this point, especially if they do make the playoffs.

5. The NFC East: 8-8 could be enough to win the division.  Remember the hoopla from a couple years ago when the Seahawks won the NFC West at 7-9, and hosted a playoff game?  We could face a similar situation with the NFC East this year, given how mediocre (and that's being polite) the entire division looks.  The Giants are putrid, having score 7 points in their last 8 quarters of play; the Eagles' fast paced offense looks like a Week 1 wonder; I trust Jason Garrett as far as I can throw him; and the Redskins are 1-3.  I thought the Eagles could win the division by winning 10 games, and at this point I doubt any team in this division will win that many.

6. The NFC North: There could be a changing of the guard.  I'm not about to bury the Packers necessarily, but the Bears and Lions both look vastly improved from last season.  I didn't expect the Lions to be much better than they were in 2012, but Reggie Bush has been an incredible addition to their offense (and to my fantasy team, if I may brag for a moment).  They use him how he should have been used for his entire career, and even though the Bears hit a wall against Detroit this weekend, they look better as well.  The Packers have the best quarterback in the division (and one of the best ones in the entire league), but they could find themselves on the outside of the playoff hunt come December as well.

7. The NFC South: Proof positive that a team still needs its head coach to be as good as it can be.  The Saints' lone Achilles heel continues to be their defense, but their offense looks more fluid and coherent through its first four games than it did all of last year.  Last night's game shows Drew Brees is back to his old self, and the Saints have certainly benefited from the Falcons stumbling out of the gate a bit so far.

8. The NFC West: The curse of the reigning Super Bowl loser lives on.  There was a stretch for a while where if a team had reached the Super Bowl but lost, they had failed make the playoffs the following year.  This stretch was broken with the Seahawks in 2007, but the 49ers have looked largely sluggish through their first four games this season.  I'm not sure if that's a product of teams figuring out how to defend Colin Kaepernick or the injuries the team has sustained so far (Aldon Smith is another issue all together).  The Seahawks currently have a 2-game lead in the division, including a huge win over the 49ers in Week 2, so if that gap continues expanding San Francisco may also be fighting for a Wild Card spot.