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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

NFL Week 8 Snap Judgments

This weekend's slate of games was fairly weak compared to the last few weeks, with only the Detroit/Dallas being the truly dramatic game between two teams with at least .500 records.  The good news is that game had plenty of drama and stuff to talk about, which I'll get into.  The stark reality though is that we're nearly halfway through the NFL season, which is both exciting and disappointing considering how quickly it moves by.

1. I come to bury the Eagles and Falcons, not to praise them.  I have a little egg on my face this morning considering two of my preseason predictions this year.  I had predicted the Eagles would win the NFC East, considering the division is very mediocre, and a last place team rebounds every season to win its division outright the next year.  Not only are the Eagles not going to win the NFC East, but they are every bit as bad as they were last year.  Their quarterback situation is a mess, and Chip Kelly's heavily hyped offense has looked atrocious the last two weeks.  They're certainly in line for another top-10 draft pick in April.

As for the Falcons, I had picked Matt Ryan to be the league MVP this year, and I thought it was a good pick that was a bit outside the box.  There was no way I could have expected Peyton Manning to have the kind of season he's been having, but the Falcons have been extremely disappointing this year, mostly because they've been decimated by injuries.  Matt Ryan basically has no one to throw the ball to, and Steven Jackson looks pretty much done for his career.

2. Who will win a game first, the Jaguars or the Bucs?  That, of course, works on the presumption that either team will win a game this season.  The Jaguars at least are guaranteed of not losing in Week 9 since they are on a bye, but the Bucs have to travel to Seattle.  I had thought Greg Schiano would be fired Friday morning after the Bucs were embarrassed Thursday night at home against Carolina, but he somehow still has his job.  Either way, look at each team's next four opponents.  After their bye, the Jaguars are at Tennessee, home against Arizona, at Houston, and at Cleveland.  If I had to pick one, I would guess at Cleveland is the most winnable game of that bunch.  If they don't win that game, they'd be looking at 0-12 in the face and running out of chances of winning a single game this season.

Meanwhile, the Bucs are at Seattle next week, then home against Miami, home again against Atlanta, and then at Detroit.  I'd say Seattle and Detroit are losses for sure, but I have no idea how well they could do against Miami or Atlanta.  Has there ever been a season where the league had two 0-12 teams at the same time?  If there has, I can't remember it.

3. The Saints are probably the best team that somehow is flying under the radar.  In a season where the best teams are considered the Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers, and Patriots, how are the Saints being overlooked?  They're 6-1, and while their offense is as solid as ever, their defense has actually stepped up.  They have given up the third-fewest points in the NFC so far this season and put themselves in a good position to lock up one of the top two seeds in the playoffs, which is a great turnaround after a rough 2012 season.

4. Speaking of good teams flying under the radar, take a look at the Panthers.  Quick, name the team in the NFL who has given up the fewest points in the league thus far this season.  If you said the Chiefs, you're close; the Panthers actually have them beat, having given up 96 points to the Chiefs giving up 98.  They are over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2008 season, and their true colors will show up in the next few weeks as they get to a meaty part of their schedule: home against Atlanta, at San Francisco, home against New England, and at Miami.  They also face the Saints twice in three weeks in December, so if the Panthers make the playoffs as a Wild Card they will definitely have earned it.

5. Calvin Johnson is a man among boys.  Johnson managed to single-handedly outgain the Cowboys as a team yesterday by a margin of 329 yards to 268.  Think about that for a moment.  A wide receiver outgained an entire team by over 60 yards.  I can't say he's the greatest receiver in NFL history because he isn't Jerry Rice, but he is the best receiver in the league right now by a pretty wide margin.  The closest guys to him are probably Larry Fitzgerald and A.J. Green, but neither of them really come close to Johnson.  This guy has the physical talent and strength to beat triple coverage, which is a feat in and of itself.  If the Lions make the playoffs by winning the NFC North, they could be a tough out between Johnson, Reggie Bush, and their defense.

6. The Goat of the Week Award goes to the Steelers' special teams unit.  Two missed field goals and a blocked punt that eventually led to a touchdown for the Raiders will make any special teams unit look bad.  The worst part of it is the Steelers only wound up losing by three points in a game they had no business winning in the first place.  The Raiders played soft defense and allowed them to get back in the game late, and Shawn Suisham's two missed chip shot field goals were the deciding factor in another loss for the Steelers.

7. Marvin Jones is giving the Bengals the #2 receiver they need to have opposite A.J. Green.  As talented as A.J. Green is, he could be shut down by double coverage in the secondary and taken out of a game.  The Bengals needed someone on the other side of the field to use in such cases, and the last couple weeks Marvin Jones has quickly emerged as a very good option.  He tied a league high of 4 touchdown receptions this weekend, and Andy Dalton has made serious progress in his third year in the league.  I thought the Bengals would become a true contender in 2014, but they look ready to contend now.

8. No Randall Cobb, James Jones, or Jermichael Finley and no problem for Green Bay.  The Packers' offense was built around its passing attack for years, especially since Aaron Rodgers took over from Brett Favre.  They didn't need a rushing attack because Rodgers could find whichever receiver was open down field.  Now they have Jordy Nelson and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of, and they're still cooking now that they have a solid running back in rookie Eddie Lacy.  Lacy carried the load in the second half of the game Sunday night, which will also help the Packers come December and January when Green Bay's weather reaches the single digits.

9. Up is down, wrong is right, bad is good, back is front, and the Seahawks beat the Rams.  As nonsensical as that lead sounds, the Seahawks shouldn't have beaten the Rams last night.  The Rams sacked Russell Wilson seven times, held the ball for 38 minutes, rushed for 200 yards as a team, gave up a total of 41 rushing yards to the Seahawks, and only allowed seven first downs to the Seahawks.  With stats like those, the Rams should have won the game easily, but their awful quarterback situation now that Sam Bradford is done for the year was the key to why they still lost. To add literal injury to insult, Rams running back Zac Stacy sprained his ankle during the game last night.  The Rams already had to use him as their primary back thanks to other injuries, and now the question is whether Stacy will miss any time.

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