NFL Week 11 Snap Judgments

With six weeks to go in the regular season, over half of the divisions across the league are decided.  New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Seattle are all in control of their divisions.  New Orleans has the slimmest lead of the bunch, only a game ahead of the Panthers with two head-to-head match ups in December.  However, the NFC East continues to be an incredibly average division, with the Eagles taking a half game lead over the idle Cowboys this weekend.  Winning the East at 8-8 is still very likely, leaving one or both Wild Card teams in the NFC to finish with double-digit wins and one of them having to travel to whoever emerges as the East's winner.  If the 49ers had to travel all the way from San Francisco to play in Philadelphia for a Wild Card game, they would be at a distinct disadvantage, especially if they had to play on Saturday of Wild Card Weekend.

The situation in the AFC isn't much different.  Either the Chiefs or Broncos will be one of the Wild Cards and will finish with 12 or 13 wins.  Those kinds of results will bring us back to the conversation that came about a couple years ago when the Seahawks won the NFC West at 7-9, and hosted the then-defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, who went 11-5 in the regular season that year.  We could face that kind of situation in both conferences this year, and if this trend keeps building in future years, the NFL would have to reconsider its seeding system for the playoffs.  There's no such thing as a perfect playoff seeding system, but the 2010 season is looking less and less like a fluke now.

1. Nobody's perfect.  The Chiefs finally lost on Sunday night in a great game against the Broncos.  Realistically no one was really expecting them to go 16-0 anyway, but there's no reason why both the Chiefs and Broncos won't finish with 12 or 13 wins on the season.  In a classic "win the battle, lose the war" moment though, Wes Welker went down with a concussion for the Broncos.  His status for next week's showdown against the Patriots is highly in doubt at this point.  It's still a winnable game for Denver, but frankly even if he's on the sidelines for at least next week, they have more than enough playmakers on offense to cover his loss.

2. The Lions shot themselves in the foot thanks to a faked field goal attempt.  In a classic high risk, high reward move, the Lions faked a field goal attempt with about 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter when they were up 27-23.  Head coach Jim Schwartz tried catching the Steelers off guard and essentially seal the victory, but instead the play not only didn't result in a touchdown, but the Lions fumbled the ball away and the Steelers recovered.  The Steelers wound up winning, and since the Bears won in a marathon overtime game against the Ravens, the Bears and Lions are tied atop the NFC North.  What could have been a game that would have given the Lions more separation in the division instead brought them closer back to the pack.

3. If Andy Dalton could play consistently at quarterback, the Bengals might be one of the best teams in the league.  In the last three weeks, Andy Dalton has thrown 5 touchdown passes against 8 interceptions, including one touchdown that was a miracle play in Baltimore to send that game into overtime.  Mind you, he has 21 touchdown passes and 15 picks on the season.  Given how dominant the Bengals' defense is, along with factoring in having one of the three best wide receivers in the game in A.J. Green and a great young running back in Giovani Bernard, the only Achilles heel the Bengals really have is Dalton himself.  On Sunday, Dalton threw two more touchdowns along with three picks (including a pick-6), and the only reason why the final score was so lob sided was because of the defense playing some opportunistic football by running back both an interception, a fumble, and a blocked punt for touchdowns.

4. The Goat of the Week Award goes to Geno Smith.  The Jets were the Hyde version of their Jekyll and Hyde season this weekend, and Geno Smith was Exhibit A of that.  A putrid 8 of 23 for 103 yards and three interceptions stat line on the day for Geno, and the Jets once again held form, beaten down by Buffalo after winning an improbable game against the Saints two weeks ago.  They are the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through their first 10 games of the season, so if they hold form again, that means a win next weekend in Baltimore.  But what gambling fan would want to take that bet?

5. Do any of the AFC teams in the hunt for the last Wild Card spot want to make the playoffs?  The Jets, Ravens, Chargers, and Titans all lost this weekend, while the Steelers, Dolphins, and Raiders all won.  Don't look now, but the Raiders and Steelers are right smack in the thick of the playoff hunt since nobody apparently wants to separate themselves for the #6 seed in the playoffs.  Whoever doesn't win the AFC West is a lock for the #5 seed, so those seven teams are all crammed together for the final playoff spot.  Somehow tiebreakers will decide who does get in, but all of these teams don't look ready to make a run down the stretch to grab hold of the final spot.

6. Faint praise for the Giants.  Four weeks ago, the Giants were 0-6 and looked like one of the three worst teams in the league.  No one in their right mind could possibly have expected them to rattle off four straight wins and put themselves in the thick of the NFC East.  A good part of why they've managed to climb back in is due to how mediocre the rest of the division is, with the Eagles currently leading the division at 6-5.  Their next two games are divisional match ups, including the Cowboys coming to East Rutherford next weekend.  The Giants have somehow miraculously brought themselves back from the dead and are now fighting for the divisional lead.  Easily the most improbable comeback so far this season.

7. The Seahawks are about to get a whole lot better, not that they really need to.  How much better can a team who is currently 10-1 and leading their division by 3 1/2 games get?  The Seahawks' main flaw is in their offensive line, but they are about to get their #1 wide receiver and kick returner in Percy Harvin back.  A mobile quarterback with a group of great receivers can mask a weak offensive line, and that's what the Seahawks have.  They are leading the NFC for the #1 seed in the playoffs by 1 1/2 games (their bye week is next week), and they could put a strangle hold on that position once Harvin joins their offense.  In fact, their offensive line is about to get better as well considering their starting left tackle Russell Okung is coming back from injury as well, so he may solve many of their o-line issues.

8. What do we make of Matt McGloin?  In a league where Matt Flynn got a huge contract based on a couple spot starts in place of an injured starting quarterback, should we expect the Raiders to try cashing in on McGloin's good game on Sunday?  Or was he simply someone who looked good because the Raiders were playing against a bad Texans team who didn't have any film on McGloin to study?  Regardless, considering there are at least five teams in the league who lack a franchise quarterback, odds are someone will probably consider McGloin if the price is right.

9. The Patriots got hosed.  When was the last time those words found themselves in the same sentence?  Down four points with 3 seconds left in the game, Tom Brady threw a pass over the middle for Rob Gronkowski, who was bear hugged by Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly.  Oddly enough, a flag for interference was thrown, but then the head referee said there was no interference because the ball was deemed uncatchable.  Rewatching the play will clearly show the ball was very catchable; it's not like it was four feet high or thrown out of bounds.  The only reason why Gronkowski couldn't make a play on the ball was because he was held back by Kuechly.  The Patriots have a short week now to prepare for another tough game against the Broncos Sunday night, which could go a long way to determine whether they could claim one of the top two seeds in the playoffs.