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Tuesday, December 3, 2013

NFL Week 13 Snap Judgments

I hope everyone out there in internet-land had a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend.  Even though the first game on Thursday was a snoozer, the other two games were truly exciting, especially the Ravens/Steelers night cap.  I've learned over the years that Ravens/Steelers games, probably more so than any other divisional rivalry in the NFL, tend to have the kind of drama and tension that take years off fans' lives.  What typically happens is I warn myself that the game will be super close beforehand so I'm properly prepared.  Thursday was no exception, though when the Ravens were up 19-7 at one point I found myself relaxing a little bit, figuring they were in control of the game.  Of course, reality soon set in later, which I'll get into eventually.  But first....

1. If the Giants/Redskins game Sunday night had any playoff implications, the referee team from that game would find themselves facing a firing squad.  With just under two minutes to play in the 4th quarter, RGIII threw a pass to Pierre Garcon on 3rd down right at the first down marker.  The side judge motioned for first down and moved the chains ahead, so Redskins coach Mike Shanahan and the rest of the offense thought it was first down.  However in reality, the ball was just short, so it was 3rd and inches.  RGIII then threw a pass over the middle to tight end Fred Davis on what he thought was first down, which fell incomplete.  This play brought up what the offense thought was 2nd down, when in reality it was 4th down.  When the 4th down play also fell incomplete, Shanahan was furious - and rightfully so - at the botched down call on the refs.  (And if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, watch the highlights)

I've never seen a pooch screw like this one on the part of the refs since probably Ed Hochuli's notorious botched call of calling a Jay Cutler incomplete pass a fumble in a Broncos/Chargers game from 2008.  Whatever fate or punishment the league chooses to hand down to this referee team is well deserved, but if this game had affected any playoff races or seeding, the losing team would be outraged at the referees and the league.

2. Are the Chiefs who we thought they were?  Three weeks ago, the Chiefs were 9-0 and heading into their first head-to-head match up against divisional foe Denver.  Now the Chiefs are losers of three straight games, and while they're still in prime position to make the playoffs, there's almost no chance they can win their division.  Certainly losing their main pass rush for this game was a contributing factor, but they have quickly lost momentum after steamrolling through the first nine weeks of the season.  Their turnaround from last season is still incredibly impressive, but they don't want to limp their way into January.

3. Ron Rivera is making a case for Coach of the Year.  That's now 8 straight wins for the Panthers, whose defense is #1 in the league in fewest yards per game and fewest points allowed per game.  Andy Reid was running away and hiding with Coach of the Year for the first 9 weeks of the season, but the Chiefs' recent struggles has brought Ron Rivera into the conversation.  Rivera was a guy who was facing being canned at the beginning of the season, and now he has one of the hottest teams in the league.  They even have an outside chance at winning the NFC South and getting a bye in the playoffs since two of their final four games are against the Saints.

4. The Jets' starting quarterback in 2014 is not currently on their roster.  Mark Sanchez was clearly not fit to be a starting quarterback in the NFL - by the way, happy anniversary, butt fumble - and Geno Smith is equally unfit.  Smith was mercifully pulled at quarterback in the 3rd quarter Sunday after failing to complete 10 passes for his third straight game.  Matt Simms was then put in the game and wasn't much better.  Where the Jets go from here is anyone's guess, but they have to look beyond the players on their current roster.  Having a terrible supporting cast isn't helping matters, either; Peyton Manning would struggle with the running backs and wide receivers the team has as well.  Rex Ryan even looked like he had saved his job as head coach a few weeks ago, but the Jets may have to clean house between their coaching staff and quarterback situation following the season.

5.  Week 17 is going to unbelievable if the teams in the playoff hunt keep this same pace - which, given this season, they probably won't.  There are at least three games scheduled in Week 17 that will have serious playoff seeding implications, depending on what happens in the next three weeks.  The Ravens will be in Cincinnati, which could potentially decide the AFC North; the Eagles will play in Dallas, which could determine who wins the NFC East; and the 49ers play in Arizona, which could be a fight for the 6th seed in the NFC.  The NFL typically does not schedule a Sunday night game in Week 17 until after Week 16 is finished in order to flex a "win or go home" game in prime time that night.  The league could very likely have several good options for that prime time slot.

6. The Colts aren't nearly as threatening a team without Reggie Wayne.  Reggie Wayne tore his ACL during the Colts' Week 7 victory against Denver, and since then the team has gone 3-2.  Andrew Luck has thrown over 300 yards one time during that span, which was mostly garbage yards when the Colts were stomped by the Rams 38-8.  He's also thrown 5 touchdown passes against 5 interceptions in his last five games, which more than doubled his total interceptions on the season.  Despite the Colts' struggles, they still control the AFC South after having beaten their closest opponent in the Titans on Sunday.    Between losing their #1 receiver and benching Trent Richardson, the Colts suddenly look very pedestrian on offense.  A Wild Card team having to play in Indianapolis in January could very well walk away with a win.

7. Time to discuss Mike Tomlin and Jacoby Jones.  I really wanted to believe Mike Tomlin's explanation for his actions during the game Thursday night, but his logic is virtually impossible to swallow.  Setting aside the sheer fact he was standing the painted white area which is verboten from anyone standing in for a moment, he took a step in bounds to take a step out of bounds.  That's.....ridiculous.  Nobody takes a step forward to step backwards.  How he wasn't flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct is a mystery, but now that the league is apparently considering stripping the Steelers of a draft pick on top of fining Tomlin, the potential punishment would fit his action.  Still, there's little doubt had the situation been reversed, Steelers fans would be calling for John Harbaugh's head on a plate.

8. The Goat of the Week Award goes to Bears head coach Mark Trestman.  Trestman had elected to kick a 47-yard field goal on 2nd down instead of trying to move further down the field.  Robbie Gould is a normally very reliable kicker, but a 47-yard attempt, even in a dome, isn't a gimme.  Gould missed the kick, giving the ball away to the Vikings, who then took the ball down the field and kicked a game-winning field goal.  The Bears are now a game behind the Eagles, Cowboys, and Cardinals for the #6 seed in the NFC.  Trestman tried explaining his rationale after the game was over, but his concern over a fumble or loss of yardage can't take precedence over a bad coaching decision.

9. The Seahawks probably won't have to worry about leaving home throughout the playoffs.  Seattle all but locked up the #1 seed in the NFC last night after thumping the Saints.  They haven't lost at home with Russell Wilson at quarterback, and their only loss on the season was a road game in Indianapolis.  The question becomes can any other team beat them in their house in January.  Considering they've brought out the whooping stick on their closest rivals in New Orleans and San Francisco, the answer to that question may be, "No."

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