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Monday, January 13, 2014

NFL Divisional Round Snap Judgments

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is typically the best weekend of the entire NFL season.  There is usually at least one big dog who goes home much earlier than expected (see: Denver last year; Green Bay two years ago; and the Patriots the year before that), though this year the Divisional Round was mostly all chalk.  The stage is now set for two excellent Championship Games, which is really what the league wants every year.  The four best teams all season long are the four teams left, which will make the networks and the league happy, especially since it virtually guarantees an excellent Super Bowl as well.

1. On a weekend filled with premiere quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Andrew Luck, it was the running backs who stole the show.  The weather on Saturday in both Seattle and Foxborough had a big role in taking the passing games out of the equation, but even the games in Denver and Charlotte on Sunday were mostly determined by the running games.  Marshawn Lynch posted his third postseason game with at least 130 rushing yards; LeGarrette Blount rushed for a whopped 166 yards and 4 scores; and even Peyton Manning had a fairly pedestrian game to allow his running backs to take  control of the Chargers.  Considering the four winning teams are all largely evenly matched, the Championship Games should be very intense.

2. The Saints' passing game next year will be extremely average if they can't hang on to Jimmy Graham.  Graham is an unrestricted free agent come March, so the Saints have three options: let him walk; franchise him; or negotiate a long-term contract.  Their salary cap situation is one of the worst in the league, and Graham is looking for a big pay day given his production.  The bigger twist is that Graham could well look into being franchised as a wide receiver instead of a tight end considering how the Saints had him line up at scrimmage for most of the season.  That would bump up his number for 2014 considerably, and it's the same problem the Ravens may face with Dennis Pitta.  Aside from Graham, the Saints have a group of guys most people outside New Orleans have never heard of, and there's only so much that Drew Brees can do to elevate them collectively.

3. If you thought the Seahawks' stadium was loud on Saturday, just wait till Sunday.  Three years ago, when the Seahawks had last hosted a playoff game prior to Saturday (coincidentally also against the Saints), the crowd noise was so loud at one point that they had caused a small earthquake.  That's no exaggerration either, and on Saturday they had outdone themselves.  It's no wonder the Saints couldn't get their offense set on more than one occasion and had to burn through their timeouts early with all that noise.  The 49ers are much more accustomed to the sound there, but is there anything they can really do to counteract against such sound?

4. In this age of free agency and parity in the NFL, the Patriots and 49ers both reaching their respective conference championship games three years in a row is beyond remarkable.  Occasionally, there are teams like the Jets who had reached the AFC title game in back to back years, but that's extremely rare.  Rarer still is the idea that any team could make it to its conference title game three straight years.  Bill Belichick needs no extra accolades or recognition to go on his resume; however, Jim Harbaugh has quickly become of the best coaches in the league, now having taken his team to the NFC title game in his first three years as a head coach.  Anyone who claims Jim Harbaugh is too whiny or obnoxious as a coach ignores his ability to maximize productivity from his players.

5. The Panthers aren't going away in the NFC.  The Falcons are rebuilding, the Bucs are entering a new regime under Lovie Smith, and the Saints may lose Jimmy Graham.  If the Panthers find a big wide receiver to replace the aging Steve Smith, the offense can compliment the already-largely complete defense led by Luke Kuechly.  Whether they can overtake the likes of Seattle, San Francisco, or Philadelphia remains to be seen.  They have given themselves a window to compete in the NFC now that Cam realizes it isn't all about him anymore.

6. The Goat of the Weekend Award goes to Marques Colston.  The Saints' final drive had ended with Drew Brees throwing to Colston along the sideline with about 12 seconds to go in the game.  Colston could have, and should have, run out of bounds to stop the clock.  Instead, he threw an illegal forward pass across the field to keep the play alive.  The Saints were down by one score, and had he run out of bounds, they would have had time throw potentially two deep balls in the end zone to try tying the game up.  The Saints lost the game and their season ended, apparently because Colston didn't know how much time was left on the clock.

7. The Chargers have a road to climb before they can take the next step in competing.  They needed a small miracle to even make the playoffs to begin with, and they have both the Broncos and Chiefs in their division to contend with.  Meanwhile, they also have teams like the Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, and Titans to compete with next year for the Wild Card.  They had a little magic fall into their lap this year, and Philip Rivers could well be the Comeback Player of the Year.  They still need to fill a few key holes on their team in order to compete again.

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