This is why Wild Card Weekend is such an incredibly dramatic slate of games for the NFL Three of the four games were intense up until the clock had hit 0:00, and three of the four road teams had all won. There is always at least one team who truly lays an egg in the first round of the playoffs, and this year was no different. The one true difference this year is that there was a collossal meltdown/comeback, which will be the first talking point of these snap judgments.
1. I have never seen a game quite like the Chiefs/Colts game. I had expected the Chiefs to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 48 once the playoff field had been set last week, and for the first 35 minutes or so of their game Saturday, they looked like a championship caliber team. Andrew Luck had thrown 3 interceptions and Trent Richardson had fumbled the ball away on his first-ever postseason carry, leading to the Chiefs building a 38-10 lead early in the 3rd quarter. The Colts had looked as done as a Thanksgiving dinner at that point, and I still didn't really believe in their chances even when they had closed the gap to 41-31 by the start of the 4th quarter. What was especially perplexing was when Andy Reid had called his final timeout just prior to the 2-minute warning in the 4th quarter; that was classic Andy Reid clock mismanagement. I hadn't personally seen a postseason collapse like this one since the Browns/Steelers Wild Card game following the 2002 season, when the Browns had managed to blow a 24-7 lead midway through the 3rd quarter.
2. The Colts clearly had picked the right head coach in Chuck Pagano. Coming from the perspective of a Ravens fan, I was incredibly upset that the Colts had stolen Chuck Pagano away from the team. He was a great leader and motivator for the defense, and the players all liked him. It's easy to see why he's a great coach for those very reasons, and he's in charge of a really good, young team. The key reason why the Colts were able to come back from such a massive halftime deficit was because of their leadership, starting with Pagano and quarterback Andrew Luck.
3. Both losing teams on Saturday had positive turnover ratios. Huh? Most football games are won by a combination of forcing turnovers and/or time of possession. The Chiefs had held the ball for 15 minutes more than the Colts, and also were +3 in the turnover ratio.....and lost. The Eagles had the ball for nearly 10 minutes less than the Saints (which isn't any surprise, given Chip Kelly's style of offense), and were +2 in turnovers....and lost. Teams almost have to try gacking up a game when stats like those work heavily in their favor. In the Eagles' case, they couldn't stop the Saints' rushing attack, giving up over 180 total rushing yards in the game. Their Achilles heel is extremely obvious, but they were also playing with house money , considering they had improved by 6 wins from 2012.
4. The Saints got a huge monkey off their back in finally winning a playoff game on the road. The Saints were one of several Jekyll and Hyde teams in 2013, being a dominant team in their own building, but struggling mightily on the road. They were 0-5 in road playoff games prior to Saturday, but finally pulling a road playoff win off will build them some momentum going into next weekend. They do have a monumental task in traveling to Seattle where they were previously mauled during the regular season, but they still managed to pull off the improbable in Philadelphia.
5. What do the Bengals do with Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton? Lewis is now 0-5 in his postseason as head coach of the Bengals, and Andy Dalton has thrown 6 interceptions in his three career postseason games with only 1 touchdown. They had the opportunity to take the next step as an organization this season, having finally won the AFC North and hosted a playoff game. Instead, they were blown out at home against the Chargers, who needed a small miracle to even make the playoffs to begin with. Lewis has had over a decade to build the team into a contender, and while his knowledge of defense is uncontested, he doesn't seem like he can build the offense successfully. The Bengals' small window of being a true contender in the division and the rest of the AFC may have already closed.
6. The 49ers/Packers game turned out to be a higher scoring game than I had expected. With a wind chill of -10 degrees, I didn't think either team would clear 20 points. I had also expected a fairly sloppy game, with a combination of fumbles, dropped passes, and interceptions. Instead, there was only 1 turnover the entire game (an interception thrown by Colin Kaepernick), and both running backs were effective in carrying the offenses. I still had expected the Packers to win, given they were at home and much more comfortable with playing in the cold than the 49ers. Instead, the better defense came out on top, and the 49ers will move on to play in Carolina next weekend.
7. Which top seed stands a better chance at losing in the Divisional Round? Now that the next round's matchups are set, one of the first questions is which #1 seed is more liable to lay an egg and find themselves on an unexpected end to their playoff run. The easy answer is the Broncos for a couple reasons. First, they were the #1 seed last year and lost to the Ravens in one of the greatest playoff games ever played. Second, one cannot talk about Peyton Manning's career without mentioning his history of choking in the playoffs in the cold. It's also worth mentioning that the Chargers had also beaten the Broncos in Denver in the regular season, so beating them again wouldn't be surprising or unprecedented.
8. On paper, the best game next weekend will likely be the 49ers/Panthers game. The two teams had met earlier this season in an extremely low-scoring win for the Panthers, and they are in many ways mirror images of one another. They both have mobile quarterbacks and strong running games, and their defenses are anchored by elite middle linebackers. The outcome of next weekend's matchup will likely be another low-scoring effort, coming down to one or two key turnovers during the game that turn into points for the opposing team.
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