You'd never know it if you looked out a window in the Baltimore area today, but spring starts this week. With spring also comes the return of baseball, and there will be much rejoicing at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Of course, that also means another round of my predictions that are bound to be seen as laughable by season's end.
1. The Yankees will miss the postseason for the second straight year. Hank Steinbrenner's head will likely explode if this were to happen. If the Yankees did fail to play October baseball again, it would be the first time in over 20 years such a feat occurred (heads across the league office and TV networks would also likely explode). My argument is based largely on the Yankees' lineup; it's a mishmash of veterans way past their prime (e.g. Brian Roberts, Vernon Wells, Brian McCann, Ichiro, and Carlos Beltran) and a bunch of guys who don't generally hit for power (e.g. Jacoby Ellsbury, Derek Jeter, and Eduardo Nunez). The main power bats in the lineup will be Mark Teixeira and the aforementioned McCann and Beltran, which is a far cry from some of their lineups over the last decade. The only way they can possibly try competing is if they change their philosophy to play small ball to generate runs, which I don't see as a likely switch to happen.
2. The Orioles will win the AL East. Homer pick alert!! Yes, my heart is getting a little bit of the best of me, but compare the Orioles lineup and rotation to the rest of their division. Their offense is arguably the best, and their pitching staff is probably third in the division behind Tampa and Boston. Dan Duquette shopped wisely in the offseason by adding Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, and if Jimenez is anything like he was in the second half of last season, the Orioles' pitching will be markedly better overall.
3. The Phillies will have a firesale come July. If this were 2006, the Phillies would have one of the best teams in baseball. Unfortunately, their lineup is much like the Yankees, filled with veterans well past their prime. Chase Utley and Cliff Lee will probably be the most valuable trade chips for Ruben Amaro to rebuild the franchise, and they've already put Jimmy Rollins on the trading block. Who would be interested in acquiring any of their aging vets and how they'd work out the remaining dollars on some of those huge contracts are the million dollar questions.
4. The Angels will still finish under .500. The Angels are without question the most disappointing team over the past two seasons. They managed to finish 2012 strong and only missed the Wild Card by 4 games, but last year was an atrocity that nearly cost Mike Scioscia his job. Texas has rebuilt itself, the A's will still be great, and Seattle will be improved. The only reason the Angels will avoid finishing in last place is because Houston is in their division.
5. Danny Salazar will have a breakout year. Full disclosure: I never heard of this kid until after I had accidentally drafted him in fantasy baseball. I was ready to drop him right away until I did a little reading and research on him. He's one of the Indians' top pitching prospects, and was called up late last season as the Indians made their run for the playoffs. His fastball has already been clocked in the high 90s, and that's supposedly not even his best stuff. He probably won't throw more than 160 innings or so this year since he's so young, but he'll be a household name by the end of the season.
6. None of last year's Wild Card teams will return to the playoffs in 2014. And yes, I realize that includes the Rays and Pirates. The Pirates were last year's darling team, finally breaking a streak of over 20 years without finishing over .500. They will be this year's version of the 2013 Orioles: a team who is in the hunt until close to the end, but still find themselves on the outside looking in. As for the Rays, I don't have that much faith in their offense being able to consistently put up enough runs on the board to support their incredible pitching staff. I also expect the Indians and Reds to slightly regress from last year.
7. The Diamondbacks will be the upstart team of the season. Arizona finished at .500 each of the past two seasons, and they lost their best starter in Patrick Corbin to the dreaded Tommy John surgery for the year. However, Paul Goldschmidt is going to put this team on his back for the bulk of the season, and lead them into October. The Dodgers will still win the NL West by a healthy margin, but the Diamondbacks will snag one of the Wild Cards.
8. Yu Darvish and Gio Gonzalez will be this year's Cy Young winners. Both guys have been incredibly dominant over the last couple years, though Gonzalez has flown under the radar somewhat in his first two seasons with the Nationals. I expect both the Rangers and Nationals to play some October baseball, with their rotations anchored by these two guys.
9. Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt will be the league MVPs. Neither pick here is terribly original or surprising, especially in the case of Trout. They also each finished second in MVP voting in their respective leagues last year, so jumping up a spot won't be that much of a leap. Still, Mike Trout will finally win the award he came so close to winning each of the last two years, and Arizona will look like a bunch of thieves for signing Goldschmidt to a six-year deal prior to last season.
10. The Oakland A's will defeat the Atlanta Braves in 6 games in the World Series. My World Series pick is already in serious jeopardy considering both teams have at least one starting pitcher hurt; the Braves already have Kris Medlen headed for Tommy John surgery and the A's are losing Jarrod Parker for the same reason. On top of that, the Braves' Brandon Beachy may well need Tommy John surgery also, and the A's will be without A.J. Griffin for at least the start of the season. I'm still sticking with it though, mostly out of stubbornness and clinging to a small hope that both teams will make a play for a starter or two by the trade deadline. I'm also counting on the A's Sonny Gray and the Braves' Julio Teheran to have big years.
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