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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

NFL 2014 Week 4 Snap Judgments

A truly special defensive player in the NFL is a real rarity.  Going back to just the 1980s, the truly elite list of defensive players - bar none on position - would include the likes of Mike Singletary, Ronnie Lott, Lawrence Taylor, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Troy Polamalu.  They're all all-time greats at their respective positions, with Taylor being the last defensive player to win the league MVP award.

J.J. Watt has quickly put himself among that list of great defensive players of all time.  Earlier this season, he was used as a tight end on a goal-to-go situation for the Texans and caught a touchdown pass.  On Sunday, he picked off E.J. Manuel for an 80-yard touchdown run in addition to hitting Manuel nine times over the course of the game.  He's quickly taken the lead on Defensive Player of the Year, though it's far too early to talk about him becoming the first defensive player since Lawrence Taylor to be MVP.

1. Joseph Vincent Flacco is quickly becoming the man the Ravens paid him to be.  Flacco had one of his best career games Sunday, throwing for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 71% completion percentage.  He's well on his way for setting career highs in completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating.  Adding Steve Smith, Sr, to his group of receivers, hiring Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator, and rebuilding the offensive line has finally given Flacco the opportunity to put some serious points on the board every Sunday, which the Ravens certainly did on Carolina.  The sluggish first half in the Ravens' first game against the Bengals in Week 1 feels like a distant memory, and their next meeting in Cincinnati in November could possibly decide who wins the AFC North.

2. DeMarco Murray is the Cowboys' MVP (and possibly league MVP) through the first month of the season.  Murray has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game thus far in the season and scored at least one touchdown in every game.  He's on pace to rush for over 2100 yards and score 20 rushing TDs on the season, which would blow out the previous single season rushing record if he maintained his pace.  The Cowboys have quietly invested in their offensive line through the draft over the last five years, and adding Zack Martin this past spring is starting to pay some dividends.  Their defense is their obvious Achilles heel, but since the Eagles' defense is equally weak, would it shock anyone to see the NFC East come down to those two teams again?

3. Is Mike Tomlin on the hot seat?  The Steelers choked up a heartbreaking loss to the previously-winless Bucs at home on Sunday.  The Steelers have regressed as a team over the last 4 years, going from division (and AFC) champion in 2010 to back-to-back 8-8 seasons the last two years.  Eight wins on the year feels like a generous amount for the team to accomplish this season based on their quality of play in three of their first four games.  They blew a 24-point lead against Cleveland in their first game, looked completely inept against Baltimore, and then collapsed against Tampa on Sunday.  Tomlin was visibly upset in his post-game conference after Sunday's loss, blaming stupid penalties as the primary reason why the Steelers blew the game.  Despite being right in his assessment, he's been in this position before each of the last two years, and the results hadn't improved.  The Rooneys are exceedingly patient in their decision making in the past, giving both Tomlin and Bill Cowher the benefit of the doubt to bounce back after some tough seasons.  Even they have to be thinking about the long term future of the franchise if Tomlin continues failing at properly disciplining his players to avoid making stupid penalties that cost the Steelers games.

4. Nobody in the NFC South is very good.  Despite being blown out the last two weeks, the Panthers are still tied for first place in the division with the Falcons at 2-2.  The Saints looked like their old Jekyll and Hyde selves Sunday night: dominant at home, but below average at best on the road.  The Bucs could not have looked worse 10 days ago in Atlanta if they had actively tried, but they managed to take advantage of some late play calling blunders on the Steelers' part on Sunday.  Through the first four weeks of the season, there have been only three head-to-head matchups among NFC South teams, and two of them were in the first week of the season.  These four teams are going to beat each other up all season long, so there's a good chance the division winner may finish with 9 wins.

5. What's wrong with LeSean McCoy?  Through four games, McCoy has carried the ball 70 times for a total of 192 yards and scored only 1 touchdown.  Nick Foles has also had a tough start to his season as well, but it isn't as glaring as McCoy's.  The obvious answer is poor offensive line play, but the Eagles' collapse in San Francisco was more about turnovers and poor defense.  On the Eagles' final drive of the game with about 2:40 to go in the game, McCoy got 5 yards when the Eagles were on the 49ers' 6-yard line.  The 2013 version of LeSean McCoy would have gotten to the goal line and scored the go-ahead touchdown, but the 2014 version has been coming up short in situations just like that.  If the Eagles are going to play football in January, they're going to need the old version of McCoy again.

6. The Goat of the Week Award goes to the entire Oakland Raiders team.  This team is just unwatchable.  It's quite embarrassing that the NFL sends a product like the Raiders across the pond to play in London in order to build interest in an NFL franchise overseas (which they still project will happen by 2022).  There just aren't words to describe how terrible the Raiders looked against Miami, particularly Matt McGloin's first snap after Derek Carr went down with a knee injury.  Head coach Dennis Allen was just fired overnight.  They aren't a franchise built for being competitive or relevant, and that isn't going to change any time soon.

7. The Packers and their fans can truly relax.  Shame on me for thinking the Packers were taking a step backwards this season and Jay Cutler and the Bears would simultaneously take a step forwards.  Aaron Rodgers put on a show in Chicago, and Jay Cutler was so far behind in Rodgers's shadow that the Bears didn't look like they were ready to take their own field.  The Packers' next three games are all very winnable, starting Thursday night at home against Minnesota.  If they win all three, they finish the first half of the season on the road in New Orleans before their bye week.  Even if they lose in New Orleans, that would put them at a very respectable 5-3 heading into their bye.

8. The Patriots may finally be meeting their decline.  When I was putting together my season predictions in August, one that I had considered making was the Patriots would not reach double-digit wins for the first time since 2002.  Then I looked over their schedule, and I quickly put that prediction aside because I couldn't come up with a feasible way they would fail to get at least 10 wins again.

Now, having seen what they did last night, I think there's a real chance they may win only 9 games this year.  They don't have a horse of a running back, a la LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, or Jamaal Charles; their receivers are a bunch of unknowns who may not make the roster of many teams across the league; and their defense is filled with holes top to bottom.  Tom Brady even recently said he'd only retire when he'd start sucking, and while no one will claim that day has come, he certainly isn't playing at the level he was in 2007 when the Patriots went 16-0 in the regular season.  He doesn't have the kind of talent he needs as a quarterback to have a competitive team anymore.

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