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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

NFL 2014 Week 13 Snap Judgments

On a personal note, I have some funny fantasy football stuff to share.  I'm in two leagues with two separate groups of friends, both of which I've been part of for several years.  In one league, I have clinched the #1 overall seed for the playoffs and got a bye through next weekend.  I can "rest" all my players and not have to worry about setting any lineup until Week 15.  I'm feeling really good about my team's chances to win my league's title this year, which would be my second championship in this particular league.

On the complete other end of the fantasy spectrum, my season came to a merciful end in my other league.  I went a spectacular 0-13 there, despite making all kinds of roster moves to pull at least one win out.  I don't think anyone ever had a winless season in that league before, and I could only laugh at my team's ineptitude week after week.  These two teams combined form the literal best of times and worst of times in fantasy football.  I have no idea how in one league I could put together a championship-caliber team, and the other is one of the worst teams in the history of fantasy sports. I feel like both popping my collar and laughing at myself at the same time.  That's fairly impressive.

On to actual football action.....

1. Nobody is really talking about how many good teams in the AFC will be left out of the playoffs.  The subject has been discussed at length as far as the NFC is concerned, mostly because of how bad the entire NFC South has been this season.  There will almost certainly be a Wild Card team in the NFC who will have a better record than the winner of the NFC South and have to play on the road.  Odds are that at least one team in the NFC will reach double-digit wins but be left out of the playoffs entirely.

The situation in the AFC is arguably tougher though.  There are currently 11 teams who have at least 7 wins through 13 weeks, which means 5 of those teams will be left without chairs when the music stops after Week 17.  In 2008, the Patriots became one of the few teams in league history to win 11 games but be left out of the playoffs.  We are facing a very similar situation this season, only things would be tougher since it's possible that multiple teams with double-digit wins will be left out of January.  It makes for great drama right now, but there could be as many as 5 teams who have 10 or more wins and be very upset by season's end.

2. Colt McCoy only made the Redskins' decision-making process more difficult.  McCoy showed on Sunday that he can play, throwing for nearly 400 yards (albeit mostly in garbage time when the game was clearly lost) and 3 scores in Indianapolis.  Robert Griffin III is still being described as part of the offensive plan for the rest of the season, but that doesn't mean much of anything considering how vague the wording is.  The toughest decision is what the Redskins do with Griffin next season when the team has to choose whether it will exercise a fifth-year option on his rookie contract for $18 million.  Opting not to exercise the option would be a referendum on the trade the Redskins had made to draft Griffin in the first place, showing just how much of a waste the draft picks the team had to give up to St. Louis truly was.  If they stick with Griffin yet again, they are hindering any kind of progress going forward since McCoy is clearly a better quarterback.

3. Right now, there could be as many as 6 head coaching openings by season's end.  The Raiders will already need a new head coach since they had fired Dennis Allen earlier this season.  Other possible openings include the Bears, Giants, Falcons, Jets, and perhaps most shockingly, the 49ers.  Jim Harbaugh's working relationship with the 49ers' ownership keeps getting worse with each passing week, despite the team reaching the NFC Championship Game each of the last three seasons and appearing in Super Bowl 47.  San Francisco would certainly be the most attractive head coaching job of that bunch on a player talent level, but the documented personality clashes could make some applicants concerned about how much control they'd have over personnel and decision making.  The Falcons may stick with Mike Smith if they wind up winning the NFC South, but if that job opened up that may become even more attractive than the 49ers job.

4. Andy Dalton should buy Marvin Lewis a pretty special Christmas present.  Lewis bailed out his own quarterback on Sunday after Andy Dalton played another lousy game in Tampa with some relatively unconventional tactics: Tampa had the ball and was driving down field in order to attempt a game-winning field goal.  Lewis noticed the Bucs had 12 men on the field at one point, something the refs all on the field had missed.  The game had less than 2 minutes to go, a point when head coaches are not allowed to challenge calls or ask for a review.  Lewis was forced to throw his challenge flag on the field in order to get the refs' attention, at which time they caught the error.  The Bucs were kicked out of field goal range once the penalty was assessed, and the Bengals held on to be the only team in the AFC North to win on Sunday.  Dalton could have been the Goat of the Week otherwise.

5. The Goat of the Week Award goes to the Ravens' defense.  The Ravens were flagged a whopping 14 times on Sunday against the Chargers for 98 yards, some of which were questionable calls, namely the final pass interference penalty called on Anthony Levine as he blocked Eddie Royal from catching a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute to play in the game.  Safety Matt Elam was flagged twice as well for defensive holding, but perhaps the dumbest penalties went to Elvis Dumervil, who was hit three times for being offsides in the neutral zone.  The Ravens' defense should have been able to contain Philip Rivers, especially with the offense putting 33 points on the board on Sunday.  Instead, they shot themselves in the foot in the chase for the playoffs and may have to win all four of their remaining games to have a chance now.

6. The Browns shouldn't pass the torch to Johnny Manziel just yet.  Manziel was put in at quarterback Sunday when Brian Hoyer threw 2 more interceptions (in his last three games, Hoyer had thrown only 1 touchdown against 6 picks).  Cleveland was another AFC North team who didn't seize the opportunity handed to them against another AFC team hunting for the playoffs, Hoyer is now on a thin thread, but he shouldn't be bumped permanently for Manziel yet.  Mike Pettine will announce within the next 24 hours who will start at quarterback on Sunday against the Colts, and Manziel should only be given the keys to the team if the Browns fall hopelessly out of the playoff hunt.  Hoyer can still help them win now; he shouldn't be replaced unless the team starts looking towards 2015.

7. The Patriots/Packers game was a rare example of a heavily hyped game that actually lived up to its billing.  The Patriots did everything they could to take Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson out of the game, forcing Aaron Rodgers to throw to his other receivers.  Fortunately for the Packers, Davonte Adams and Richard Rodgers stepped up, along with Eddie Lacy running the ball effectively to keep the passing game open.  Green Bay did its best to keep Rob Gronkowski at bay, but he's too large of a target to completely shut down.  HaHa Clinton-Dix made the play of the game with about 3:25 left in the game by taking away a touchdown reception from Gronk.  It's far too soon to start predicting whether these two teams will face off again in Phoenix in Super Bowl 49, but this was one of the best games in years.

8. Arizona is quickly allowing the rest of the NFC to catch up to them.  Once upon a time, a whole two weeks ago in fact, the Cardinals had what looked like a stranglehold on the NFC.  While their lead at the time was hardly insurmountable, they didn't look like they had missed a step after Carson Palmer went down with a torn ACL.  They soundly beat Detroit, who at the time was their closest rival in the conference.  Since then, they were beaten badly by the Seahawks and looked lethargic on the road in Atlanta Sunday.  They share the same record with the Packers now, and only hold the top seed's edge by a 1-game margin in their conference record.  The Seahawks are only a game behind them now, and they go head to head in Arizona in two weeks.  It's quite possible to see them fall all the way from the top seed in the league down to fighting for a Wild Card spot.  Bruce Arians has still done an incredible coaching job there, but they are playing their worst football of the season at the wrong time.

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