2015 MLB Predictions Sure to Go Wrong

Holy smokes!

Has it really been more than two months since I last wrote anything?  What the hell happened?

More on what I've been up to later, but for the first step in getting back to blogging regularly, here are my predictions for the 2015 Major League Baseball season.

1. The St. Louis Cardinals will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2010 season.  Death, taxes, and the Cardinals making the playoffs, right?  Normally yes, but there will be a changing of the guard in NL Central this year.  The Cubs will be much improved between their own talent and bringing in Joe Madden as their new manager (more on that a little later), and the Pirates are going to be really, really good as well.  Somebody has to take a step backwards, and that team will be the Cardinals.  While I don't expect a complete collapse from this year, they aren't going to be in the playoff hunt down the stretch.

2. The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West.  Speaking of changing of the guards, the Mariners have added enough to their team to overtake their division rival Angels.  Nelson Cruz getting 4 years in his offer from the team will look really stupid in a couple years, but he'll provide enough boost to their offense in 2015 that the Mariners will win over 90 games and take the division crown.  Taijuan Walker will also get to show his stuff in the rotation in the season, albeit in somewhat limited fashion since he's only 22 and pitched only a handful of starts last year.

3. The three-team race in the AL Central will not involve the Detroit Tigers.  The theme of perennial contenders being overtaken by their division rivals is a theme here.  Miguel Cabrera will still be productive, but he'll show his best years are finally behind him; the same will go for Justin Verlander.  The White Sox, Indians, and Royals will all be vying for the division title by September, with the Tigers on the outside looking in.

4. Troy Tulowitzki will finally play in more than 140 games this year and be the hot-ticket item by the trade deadline.  The Rockies will want some prize prospects in exchange for Tulo by July, but they'll still need to eat some of the $118 million he is owed in his contract despite moving him.  A team in need of a slugging shortstop (*cough cough* THE METS *cough cough*) will make great use of him in the second half of the season.

5. Kevin Gausman will have a monster break out year for the Orioles.  The Orioles have been very careful in how much they have used Gausman so far in his career, but this year they will let him loose and he will turn into the team's de facto ace.  He will lead the team in wins and ERA on the season, emerging as their #1 starter as they make another push for October.

6. The Yankees will finish under .500 for the first time since 1992.  Scary to think there are players on active rosters in Major League Baseball who are not old enough to remember the last time the Yankees had finished under .500.  The Yankees are on the decline dating back to last season, and their roster of guys well into their 30s are only going to keep declining.  They will be fighting the Rays for last place in the AL East.

7. The San Diego Padres will be baseball's most improved team from last year.  There will be several teams who will win 8-10 more games this year over last, including the Astros, Cubs, Mets, and Marlins, but the Padres have added both offense and starting pitching to compete with the Giants and Dodgers in their division.  I don't see them beating out the Dodgers for the division title, but they will take one of the Wild Card spots in the NL.

8. The Chicago Cubs will finish over .500 for the first time since 2009, and Joe Madden will be NL Manager of the Year.  The Cubs are still a year or so away from truly competing for the NL Central, but they will take major strides forward this year with Jon Lester anchoring their pitching staff and Joe Madden calling the shots.  Kris Bryant won't be on their roster to start the season, but he will join the team by Memorial Day and provide an immediate impact from both offense and defense.  The rest of their young core of players will continue to develop, because....

9. Adam Jones and Anthony Rizzo will be the league MVPs.  Adam Jones is the cornerstone of the Orioles' offense now, and he will carry the team to their second consecutive division title.  Anthony Rizzo will lead the Cubs' young talent and give their fans the most reason to get excited in a very long time.  

10. Clayton Kershaw will win yet another Cy Young Award, and Felix Hernandez will win it in the AL.  I tried being cute last year by picking someone other than Kershaw to win the NL Cy Young.  Shame on me, because as boring as it is to pick a favorite, nobody else comes close to his level of dominance.  The scary thing about Kershaw is that he just turned 27 earlier this week, so he's just now entering his prime.  As for King Felix, his win-loss record will finally no longer be as mediocre as it has been the last few years (even though that doesn't mean a whole lot for a pitcher anyway).  

11. The Los Angeles Dodgers will finally get over the hump and defeat the Seattle Mariners in the World Series.  The spending spree the Dodgers have gone on the last few years will finally pay off for them in an all-west coast Series.  Mariners fans will have plenty to hang their collective hats on since they've never gotten this far in October before, and who wouldn't want to watch a Kershaw vs. King Felix matchup in Game 1?

NFL 2015 Divisional Round Snap Judgments

I've read and watched plenty of reviews of the Baltimore/New England game from Saturday evening for plenty of obvious reasons.  What I specifically was looking for was detail over John Harbaugh's unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in the 3rd quarter, and what the Patriots had done that set him off.  I think I'm a bit more clear on what had transpired, but it's still something that I don't recall ever seeing in a football game before.

Patriots running back Shane Vereen went to a ref prior to the play in question to inform him he would be an ineligible receiver, thus making him an offensive lineman on the upcoming play.  Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui would be the eligible receiver downfield.  The Patriots ran the play as quickly as possible in order to prevent the Ravens to properly adjust to the new lineup, and New England was able to score a game-tying touchdown at that point before going on to win the game.

It was clever and crafty, for sure.  Certainly gutsy on Belichick's part to call the play.  It's also within the rules of the game.  Most likely it was a play the Patriots had drawn up in their practices during the previous week to exploit the Ravens' obvious weakness in their secondary.

John Harbaugh was obviously not happy about the set up on the field, and his post-game conference he openly admitted to saying he took the penalty in order to give his defense time to adjust to the phony offensive line set up.  Sneaky as the play was, the Ravens were still winning the game at that point, and had plenty of opportunity to close the door on the Patriots.  One trick play didn't determine the outcome of the game, and the Ravens had even regained the lead following the Patriots' touchdown.  Had their defense managed to get off the field on the Patriots' final drive, they'd be moving on to play Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game.  Instead, they are planning on what to do for the NFL draft in April.

1. All in all, the Ravens had a successful, bounce back season compared to 2013.  There was little place to go but up for the Ravens in 2014, and they have plenty to happy about.  Joe Flacco had a career year, and the offense as a whole thrived under Gary Kubiak.  Fortunately for Baltimore, Kubiak won't be looking for another head coaching job, despite the Bears' heavy interest in him.  What they need to prioritize for next season is rebuilding their secondary, though having 5 cornerbacks returning from season-ending injuries will contribute to that strategy.

2. The Seahawks are almost unfathomably good.  Seattle became the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots Saturday night, thumping the Panthers in the process.  Carolina actually kept the game pretty close for the first half, but reality caught up in the second half as Seattle's defense poured it on.  Kam Chancellor committed one of the great athletic feats in recent memory in the game by blocking a field goal, and then later picked off Cam Newton, returning the interception for a touchdown.  Chancellor isn't nearly the household name that other Seahawks defensive players are, particularly Richard Sherman.  He's every bit as good, though.

3. Dez Bryant didn't catch that ball, but it sucks that the game was ultimately decided on reversing a key play like that.  By the letter of the law, Dez Bryant's catch was nullified the moment the ball hit the ground and dislodged it from his arm.  The Cowboys/Packers game was another playoff classic, and the Cowboys were poised to score a possibly game-winning touchdown after converting a critical 4th down play.  As much as I personally hate the Cowboys, I can't deny how great Tony Romo had played yesterday and how he was every bit as good as Aaron Rodgers was.  While I disagree with Dez Bryant claiming he caught the ball, I do think he understands the rule in place.  I also understand why he's as upset about it as he is, since no player would want a playoff game decided on reversing a critical play.

4. Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, he can only fake looking game-ready for so long.  Rodgers claimed after the game that his calf muscle can last long enough for the NFC Champiionship Game and potentially Super Bowl 49, but he was hobbling around the field for most of the game yesterday.  If the Packers do win in Seattle next weekend, he'll have a week to rest his calf muscle again to prepare for the Super Bowl.   Packers fans everywhere have to hope that he doesn't injure his leg so severely in the championship game that he either can't play effectively or can't play at all in the Super Bowl (assuming the Packers win).

5. It's much, much too soon to start the "Was yesterday Peyton's last NFL game?" discussion.  Manning did have arguably one of his worst playoff performances ever, and his demeanor following the game would suggest he's at least contemplating retirement.  He has to be aware he's very close to the end of his career, and the loss on Sunday had to impact him emotionally.  Still, Father Time will catch up to everyone on a long enough timeline.  If I were a betting man, I'd bet that Manning has one year left in his career, though his best chance at another championship is almost certainly behind him.

6. Is there any reason not to expect a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl at this point?  Super Bowl 48 was the first match up between two #1 seeds since Super Bowl 44 (Saints/Colts).  I see no reason why we wouldn't have a second straight contest between #1 seeds at this point.  Both the Patriots and Seahawks had defeated their opponents in their respective championship games earlier this season, though the Seahawks had faced the Packers back in the Thursday night season opener.  Even if either the Colts or the Packers winning on Sunday would be a surprise, I'd be far less surprised to see the Packers winning than the Colts.  Regardless, I think everyone is anticipating by late Sunday night that the Seahawks and Patriots will emerge victorious in their conference championship games.

NFL 2015 Wild Card Weekend Snap Judgments

The big news over Wild Card weekend was the infamous reversal of a pass interference penalty on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens with about 8:30 to play in the game.  Rarely have I ever felt the need to comment on officials screwing over a team because this will be one of the few exceptions.  The NFL has never adequately addressed poor officiating in its games, starting with the obvious fact that none of these officials are full-time employees.  They have little to lose when they screw the pooch, except maybe an extra bonus paycheck for being able to officiate a playoff game, up to and including the Super Bowl.

If any official or referee has ever been disciplined for fumbling a penalty during a game, the league has managed to keep it behind closed doors.  The same goes for anyone who has been terminated from his position in officiating a game.  These guys face no real consequences for any call they screw up during a game.  The solution to the issue would be fairly obvious: employ full-time officials who are league employees, thus forcing them to be disciplined and/or terminated for any repeated failures in calling a game.

The flaw with that option is the league officials are unionized, so the odds of the league going the route of hiring full-time employees is slim at best.

1. The Cardinals may have used up their best chance at a championship run for a while.  Carson Palmer's injury was devastating, and Bruce Arians may have been right when he said the team could still win a championship with Drew Stanton as their quarterback.  Unfortunately, Stanton also got hurt, leaving Ryan Lindley as their starter the rest of the way.  The Cardinals wound up losing 4 of their final 6 games of the regular season, and put on a historically bad offensive performance in Carolina on Saturday.  While they'll get Palmer back next season, they almost certainly won't have their star receiver Larry Fitzgerald back, considering he carries over a $20 million cap hit in 2015.  A competent quarterback can make a group of no-name receivers better, but with the likes of the Seahawks and Rams in their division as well, Arizona may be in line for a step backwards next season.

2. Time to cash in any chips you may have on the Panthers.  Carolina played with house money the moment they won the putrid NFC South.  They kept on taking from the house in limiting the Cardinals to 78 yards of total offense.  Any betting fans out there probably don't need to be told this, but it's time to cash in whatever money is tied to the Panthers now that their next opponent is the Seahawks.  The funny thing is that prior to the season, I had expected the Panthers to take a fairly big step backwards from their 2013 season, finishing around 8-8.  They essentially did (7-8-1, but close enough), and still won back to back divisional titles.  Barring the Falcons bringing in an all-star cast of new coaches and having a huge turnaround, I don't see anyone really challenging the Panthers in 2015 in their division.  We may have yet another division winner finishing with 8 or 9 wins next season.

3. Joe Flacco once again reaffirmed who he is as a quarterback.  We can finally put to rest the debate over what kind of player Joe Flacco is.  He is a guy who is average to slightly above average during the regular season, but he takes his game up another level or two for the postseason.  He won't win any awards like league MVP or Offensive Player of the Year, but who really cares?  If the Ravens make another deep playoff run this year, Flacco is a guy who can put the team on his back.

4. Deep down in a private moment, Tom Brady has to be thinking the Patriots got a tough draw in the Divisional Round.  The Ravens have time and again been one of the few teams in the league who have consistently given the Patriots fits over the last few years.  Last year's blowout Patriots win in Baltimore is one of the only exceptions to this trend, with many more close contests and a few bonafide classic games (the 2012 AFC Championship Game immediately comes to mind, even though it was a heartbreaking loss for the Ravens).  Given the rivalry's history, Brady has to realize to some degree that the Ravens present one of the toughest possible challenges to the Patriots chasing a championship this season.  He won't admit it to the public or perhaps even to his own teammates, but he's seen enough of Terrell Suggs over the years to know what kinds of hits will be coming Saturday night.

5. The Bengals are the Buffalo Bills of Wild Card Weekend.  That's now 4 straight playoff appearances with 4 straight losses in the first round for the Bengals.  Andy Dalton wasn't quite the train wreck this year that he was in years past, but the Bengals still could only manage to score 10 points in the game.  They've averaged 10.75 points in their 4 playoff losses, losing 3 of those 4 games by double digits.  The big question at this point is whether Marvin Lewis is the right head coach for the team.  He's had a total of 6 chances in the playoffs, but he's lost every single Wild Card game he's reached as Bengals head coach.  If that isn't enough evidence to suggest the Bengals need to make a change, then I don't know what will.

6. The Lions, like the Cardinals, might have used up their best chance at a playoff run this year.  Ndamakong Suh is an impending free agent, and his post game conference certainly gave the impression that he's played his last game in Detroit.  The Lions still have Nick Fairley, though he has yet to play a full season in his career (he did play in 15 games in 2013 though).  Their defense will take a hit next season, especially if defensive coordinator Teryl Austin gets a head coaching job.  They could be another team that takes a step backward in 2015, along with the Cardinals.

7. I'm still not fully buying into the Cowboys.  Tony Romo has shown all the signs of getting the proverbial monkey off his back, throwing 14 touchdown passes since the first week of December with only 1 interception along the way.  He was clutch yesterday against the Lions, throwing a gutsy pass down the middle for the go-ahead and eventual winning score of the game.  Despite all these positives, I still can't picture the Cowboys getting past the Packers in Green Bay next weekend.  As well as the Cowboys have played on the road (especially Romo), Aaron Rodgers has just been better.  Sunday's weather is projected to be a high of 20 and a low in the single digits, which would favor the Packers.  I will gladly eat my words come next Monday if the Cowboys do pull out another win, but I don't see it happening.

NFL 2014 Week 17 Snap Judgments

No defending Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots, which is pretty remarkable when you really think about that.  Four champions - the Steelers (twice), Giants, and Ravens - failed to even make the playoffs the following year during that same span.  If that isn't a sign of how parity is rampant across the league, then I don't know what will.

Now we come to the curious case of the Seahawks.  At one point, they were 3-3, and then later on they had traded away one of their primary playmakers on offense.  There were all kinds of questions surrounding the leadership ability and overall trust in their quarterback.  There is still talk of whether their running back - another big time offensive playmaker - will be back with the team next year.

Despite all that drama, the Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC going into the playoffs and have home field advantage the rest of the way.  They only lost one home game this season, so they'd have to lay a fairly colossal egg to be handed an early exit in the postseason.  Granted, #1 seeds have been sent home in either classic games (e.g. Ravens/Broncos two years ago), or coming out completely flat in their first game after their bye (e.g. Packers/Giants three years ago).  Cliche as it sounds, I don't see the Seahawks coming out flat after they return from their bye week.  They're too well-coached, and it would not surprise anyone if they became the first team since those 2004 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

1. Meanwhile, there will be some job opportunities opening up today.  Jim Harbaugh is already out the door in San Francisco, and Woody Johnson is preparing to clean house for the Jets today as well.  The Raiders are already in need of a head coach, and Chicago and Atlanta are also likely to have regime changes.  Of those five organizations, it's hard to pick which one is the most attractive for anyone looking for a head coaching job.  If the 49ers look outside the organization, on paper they'd have the best roster of players, but there's the obvious question of what kind of control and power a new head coach would have under GM Trent Baalke and owner Jed York.  Chicago and Atlanta are roughly neck and neck in terms of how much rebuilding needs to be done.  Chicago has a running back and elite group of receivers, but there are huge questions surrounding the quarterback and defense; Atlanta has a quarterback and elite receiver, but the Falcons need a running back, and serious help on both the offensive and defensive lines.  The Jets are a complete mess, and the Raiders aren't in a much better position.  I'm sticking with the 49ers as the team in need of a head coach right now that is closest to a "win now" position, but the competition in the NFC West is getting heavier with each passing season.

2. Justin Houston has not gotten the kind of attention he's deserved this season.  I don't think I've brought Houston up at all this year, but he has had an incredible season playing for the Chiefs.  He finished his 2014 season leading the league in sacks, finishing only 1.5 sacks behind Michael Strahan for the single-season record.  If not for J.J. Watt, he'd be a very likely candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.  He's also an impending free agent, and early word is that he and the Chiefs are going to fight over his franchise tag in the offseason.  He also turns 26 in January, so he's just starting to enter the prime of his career.  He stands to make a ton of money with his next contract, so while the Chiefs would be wise to prevent him from hitting the free agent market, they'd be doing everyone a disservice if they can't work out a long-term deal with Houston.

3. The Browns are still a mess.  Once upon a time, way back in the first week of November, the Browns were 5-3 and looking ready to take a big step towards competitiveness in the AFC North.  Fast forward nearly two months later, and they managed to lose their final five games of the season.  Johnny Manziel is quickly showing he doesn't take his job very seriously, and the front office is already very frustrated with his antics.  I find it hard to believe that the franchise would look to drafting yet another quarterback early in the draft in April, but Manziel is already on a very thin thread with management.  For whatever reason, the Browns just can't take a step forward without taking two steps back.

4. The Panthers might actually win a playoff game.  Prior to the season, I thought the Panthers would take a pretty big step backwards after going 12-4 last year.  I expected 8-8 was pretty likely, and as it turned out, that was extremely close to their 7-8-1 record.  It was also enough to win the pathetic NFC South, and they'll host the Arizona Cardinals on Wild Card Weekend.  With the quarterback position up in the air for the Cardinals, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the Panthers win a playoff game much like the 7-9 Seahawks did when they had beaten the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in 2010 as NFC West champions.  In 2010 I felt the idea of a division winner finishing 8-8 or worse was a fluke; I was proven wrong this season, and I think the time has come for the NFL to rethink its postseason seeding procedures.

5. Joe Flacco finally showed some leadership moxie.  The Ravens had an opportunity to return to the playoffs as the Chiefs beat up the Chargers yesterday.  Instead of taking care of business at home during the first half, the Ravens' offense once again sputtered, putting up only 3 points in their final home game of the season.  They were tied 3-3 at the half, and Flacco had enough.  He gave an impassioned halftime speech, one that lit a fire on everyone in the locker room.  They went out and put up 17 unanswered points to ultimately win the game and grab the final playoff spot in the AFC.  That's the kind of leader Flacco has to be if the Ravens are going to win any playoff games this season.  He may not be interesting or emotional in his press conferences, but he can light a fire when he has to in the huddle or in the locker room.  If he can assert himself like that again Saturday night against the Steelers, the Ravens could make another playoff run.

6. The Giants will be an upstart team for 2015.  The Giants' offense has a chance to be really, really good next year, with Victor Cruz returning and playing on the opposite side of Odell Beckham, Jr.  If Eli Manning cuts back on his turnovers (which he did in 2014 over 2013), the Giants could be right in the mix with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East.  They have to address Jason Pierre-Paul's contract and the rest of their defense in the draft, and if they do they can rebound next season.  Call this a super early bold prediction sure to go wrong for next year.

NFL 2014 Week 16 Snap Judgments

I would make for a terrible journalist.

When I write my weekly recaps, I normally start on Monday and write most of the post, leaving a spot open for the Monday night game.  Then on Tuesday morning I add in whatever I have to say about Monday night football, and make any last minute changes before I hit "publish."  Once or twice I wrote the entire post on a Tuesday morning, but I always made a point to finish it.

Until two weeks ago, that is.

I don't even have a good story as to why.  I recall on Monday thinking that I had plenty of time to start working on it, so I did what I did so many times in college: I procrastinated.  Next thing I knew, it was Wednesday morning, and it hit me that I never did my usual write up.  By then I thought it was virtually pointless since Week 15 was starting the following night, and it was too late.

Last week work got in the way of my normal write up.  It's a marginally better excuse than simply forgetting, but it could still have been completed.

Now that I'm done pitying myself, I can finally get to my thoughts on Week 16...

1. Thursday night divisional games are in theory a great idea, but who decided the final Thursday game of the season should have been Titans/Jaguars?  The Thursday slate of games started out pretty awful, most of them being blowouts.  About halfway into the season, there were a couple good games, including Colts/Texans, Jets/Patriots, and Chiefs/Raiders.  But when the league office was building the schedule back in April, did anyone stop to think that ending the Thursday games with Titans/Jaguars could have been replaced with something a whole lot better?  The league obviously wanted to give every team at least one prime time game during the course of the season, but why end its first season with a Thursday night game every week with one that featured two teams likely to be picking in the top five spots in the draft next year?  They could have saved something like Chargers/Broncos or Eagles/Cowboys for that slot instead.

2. The Redskins, Vikings, Texans, and Raiders must all be feeling happy today.  The Vikings and Raiders must be feeling especially happy because they had eliminated the Dolphins and Bills, respectively, from competing for postseason spots.  The Redskins made the road extra hard for the Eagles to make the playoffs at all, and coupled with Dallas blowing out the Colts, the Eagles' chances at playing in January are slim at best.  The Texans kept their equally slim playoff chances alive by dismantling the Ravens (more on the Ravens in a moment).  Since three of these four teams had no shot of the postseason, their respective victories felt a little sweeter knowing they had essentially ended their opponents' seasons as well.

3. The Goat of the Week Award goes to Joe Flacco.  Joe Flacco had one of his worst performances of his career on Sunday, throwing three interceptions (two of which were arguably not his fault) and completing under 33% of his pass attempts on the day.  J.J. Watt was once again showing why no other football player in the league can impact a game like he can, making Flacco uncomfortable in the pocket all day.  The Ravens entered the weekend with the opportunity to win their final two games, seize a playoff spot, and possibly even win their division.  After laying that egg in Houston, they can no longer win their division, and their chances at the postseason rely on scoreboard watching while trying to take care of business against Cleveland in the final game of the regular season.

4. Reports of the Seahawks' demise was greatly exaggerated.  Eight weeks ago, the Seahawks had traded away one of their primary offensive pieces in Percy Harvin to the Jets, Russell Wilson was being accused of not being "black enough" (which I still don't know what that means), and Marshawn Lynch's locker room antics were tearing the team apart.  Does anyone remember those days?  I sure don't.  The team is primed for another postseason run, and they can clinch the top seed in the NFC again by beating the Rams next week.  Pete Carroll has done an incredible job keeping that team together in light of how awful things looked two months ago.  They could well be the first team since the 2004 Patriots to be a defending Super Bowl champion to at least win a playoff game the following season.

5. Dominic Raiola has quickly become a liability for the Lions.  Four weeks ago, Raiola took a cheap shot against Patriots defensive tackle Zach Moore when the game was winding down to a Patriots win.  The NFL did not suspend him for that action, but Raiola once again took a cheap shot on Sunday by stepping on Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson's leg.  The league has suspended Raiola for one game for that latest incident, which means he won't play against the Packers for the NFC North title game.  These kinds of stupid moves show how much of a dirty player Raiola is, and the Lions may, at the very least, have to find another way to deal with Raiola in order to prevent injury to other players on the field.

6. Speaking of cheap shots, Alec Ogletree gave one to Odell Beckham, Jr.  And guess who the Rams defensive coordinator is?  That would be one Gregg Williams, the same Gregg Williams who was at the center of the Saints bounty scandal from their 2009 season.  In fairness, there are a couple important notes worth mentioning here.  First, I'm not making any kind of allegation that Williams is up to his old bounty ways.  Second, the Giants and Rams had been roughing each other up all day prior to Ogletree laying a hand on Beckham after he had knocked Beckham out of bounds.  Third, while the Rams have been playing decent defense for the last few weeks, there haven't been any kinds of signs that Williams was returning to his old tricks.  Still, this game nearly got out of control very quickly, and Beckham once again showed why he will be an incredible playmaker for years to come.  In the end, he got the last word because of the kinds of plays he can make.

7. The NFL made the right call in not scheduling the NFC South title game for Sunday night.  The league normally prefers flexing in a "win or go home" game for its Week 17 Sunday night game.  The last three Sunday night season finales were all NFC East title games, featuring the Cowboys and a round robin of divisional opponents.  The NFC South has come down to a "win or go home" game between the Falcons and Panthers, but the league office had enough self-respect to not schedule that for the Week 17 Sunday night game.  The South has been a joke of a division for the entire season, and there's no need to revisit how ridiculous it is that the eventual winner will get to host a playoff game.  Opting for two good teams vying for another division title was a much better choice.

8. Peyton Manning is running out of gas.  It's pretty shocking to think that Peyton has now thrown more interceptions this season than his brother Eli.  In his last 8 games, Peyton has thrown 12 picks, which those alone are already more than the 10 picks he threw in 2013.  Admittedly, he played in some ugly conditions last night in Cincinnati, but he is clearly showing signs of slowing down versus his last two seasons in Denver where he put up video game numbers.  Maybe he pulled a bit of a Houdini act on us in making us think he was immortal.  Reality had to set in sooner or later that time would catch up even with the great Peyton Manning, and last night was a signal that he is, in fact, approaching the twilight of his career.  The second championship that Peyton wanted for so long may not ever come.

NFL 2014 Week 13 Snap Judgments

On a personal note, I have some funny fantasy football stuff to share.  I'm in two leagues with two separate groups of friends, both of which I've been part of for several years.  In one league, I have clinched the #1 overall seed for the playoffs and got a bye through next weekend.  I can "rest" all my players and not have to worry about setting any lineup until Week 15.  I'm feeling really good about my team's chances to win my league's title this year, which would be my second championship in this particular league.

On the complete other end of the fantasy spectrum, my season came to a merciful end in my other league.  I went a spectacular 0-13 there, despite making all kinds of roster moves to pull at least one win out.  I don't think anyone ever had a winless season in that league before, and I could only laugh at my team's ineptitude week after week.  These two teams combined form the literal best of times and worst of times in fantasy football.  I have no idea how in one league I could put together a championship-caliber team, and the other is one of the worst teams in the history of fantasy sports. I feel like both popping my collar and laughing at myself at the same time.  That's fairly impressive.

On to actual football action.....

1. Nobody is really talking about how many good teams in the AFC will be left out of the playoffs.  The subject has been discussed at length as far as the NFC is concerned, mostly because of how bad the entire NFC South has been this season.  There will almost certainly be a Wild Card team in the NFC who will have a better record than the winner of the NFC South and have to play on the road.  Odds are that at least one team in the NFC will reach double-digit wins but be left out of the playoffs entirely.

The situation in the AFC is arguably tougher though.  There are currently 11 teams who have at least 7 wins through 13 weeks, which means 5 of those teams will be left without chairs when the music stops after Week 17.  In 2008, the Patriots became one of the few teams in league history to win 11 games but be left out of the playoffs.  We are facing a very similar situation this season, only things would be tougher since it's possible that multiple teams with double-digit wins will be left out of January.  It makes for great drama right now, but there could be as many as 5 teams who have 10 or more wins and be very upset by season's end.

2. Colt McCoy only made the Redskins' decision-making process more difficult.  McCoy showed on Sunday that he can play, throwing for nearly 400 yards (albeit mostly in garbage time when the game was clearly lost) and 3 scores in Indianapolis.  Robert Griffin III is still being described as part of the offensive plan for the rest of the season, but that doesn't mean much of anything considering how vague the wording is.  The toughest decision is what the Redskins do with Griffin next season when the team has to choose whether it will exercise a fifth-year option on his rookie contract for $18 million.  Opting not to exercise the option would be a referendum on the trade the Redskins had made to draft Griffin in the first place, showing just how much of a waste the draft picks the team had to give up to St. Louis truly was.  If they stick with Griffin yet again, they are hindering any kind of progress going forward since McCoy is clearly a better quarterback.

3. Right now, there could be as many as 6 head coaching openings by season's end.  The Raiders will already need a new head coach since they had fired Dennis Allen earlier this season.  Other possible openings include the Bears, Giants, Falcons, Jets, and perhaps most shockingly, the 49ers.  Jim Harbaugh's working relationship with the 49ers' ownership keeps getting worse with each passing week, despite the team reaching the NFC Championship Game each of the last three seasons and appearing in Super Bowl 47.  San Francisco would certainly be the most attractive head coaching job of that bunch on a player talent level, but the documented personality clashes could make some applicants concerned about how much control they'd have over personnel and decision making.  The Falcons may stick with Mike Smith if they wind up winning the NFC South, but if that job opened up that may become even more attractive than the 49ers job.

4. Andy Dalton should buy Marvin Lewis a pretty special Christmas present.  Lewis bailed out his own quarterback on Sunday after Andy Dalton played another lousy game in Tampa with some relatively unconventional tactics: Tampa had the ball and was driving down field in order to attempt a game-winning field goal.  Lewis noticed the Bucs had 12 men on the field at one point, something the refs all on the field had missed.  The game had less than 2 minutes to go, a point when head coaches are not allowed to challenge calls or ask for a review.  Lewis was forced to throw his challenge flag on the field in order to get the refs' attention, at which time they caught the error.  The Bucs were kicked out of field goal range once the penalty was assessed, and the Bengals held on to be the only team in the AFC North to win on Sunday.  Dalton could have been the Goat of the Week otherwise.

5. The Goat of the Week Award goes to the Ravens' defense.  The Ravens were flagged a whopping 14 times on Sunday against the Chargers for 98 yards, some of which were questionable calls, namely the final pass interference penalty called on Anthony Levine as he blocked Eddie Royal from catching a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute to play in the game.  Safety Matt Elam was flagged twice as well for defensive holding, but perhaps the dumbest penalties went to Elvis Dumervil, who was hit three times for being offsides in the neutral zone.  The Ravens' defense should have been able to contain Philip Rivers, especially with the offense putting 33 points on the board on Sunday.  Instead, they shot themselves in the foot in the chase for the playoffs and may have to win all four of their remaining games to have a chance now.

6. The Browns shouldn't pass the torch to Johnny Manziel just yet.  Manziel was put in at quarterback Sunday when Brian Hoyer threw 2 more interceptions (in his last three games, Hoyer had thrown only 1 touchdown against 6 picks).  Cleveland was another AFC North team who didn't seize the opportunity handed to them against another AFC team hunting for the playoffs, Hoyer is now on a thin thread, but he shouldn't be bumped permanently for Manziel yet.  Mike Pettine will announce within the next 24 hours who will start at quarterback on Sunday against the Colts, and Manziel should only be given the keys to the team if the Browns fall hopelessly out of the playoff hunt.  Hoyer can still help them win now; he shouldn't be replaced unless the team starts looking towards 2015.

7. The Patriots/Packers game was a rare example of a heavily hyped game that actually lived up to its billing.  The Patriots did everything they could to take Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson out of the game, forcing Aaron Rodgers to throw to his other receivers.  Fortunately for the Packers, Davonte Adams and Richard Rodgers stepped up, along with Eddie Lacy running the ball effectively to keep the passing game open.  Green Bay did its best to keep Rob Gronkowski at bay, but he's too large of a target to completely shut down.  HaHa Clinton-Dix made the play of the game with about 3:25 left in the game by taking away a touchdown reception from Gronk.  It's far too soon to start predicting whether these two teams will face off again in Phoenix in Super Bowl 49, but this was one of the best games in years.

8. Arizona is quickly allowing the rest of the NFC to catch up to them.  Once upon a time, a whole two weeks ago in fact, the Cardinals had what looked like a stranglehold on the NFC.  While their lead at the time was hardly insurmountable, they didn't look like they had missed a step after Carson Palmer went down with a torn ACL.  They soundly beat Detroit, who at the time was their closest rival in the conference.  Since then, they were beaten badly by the Seahawks and looked lethargic on the road in Atlanta Sunday.  They share the same record with the Packers now, and only hold the top seed's edge by a 1-game margin in their conference record.  The Seahawks are only a game behind them now, and they go head to head in Arizona in two weeks.  It's quite possible to see them fall all the way from the top seed in the league down to fighting for a Wild Card spot.  Bruce Arians has still done an incredible coaching job there, but they are playing their worst football of the season at the wrong time.

NFL 2014 Week 12 Snap Judgments

The NFC South continues to be the most pathetic group of teams in recent memory.  The Falcons, Saints, Panthers, and Bucs all collectively look far worse than the 2010 NFC West, when the Seahawks won the division at 7-9.  With five weeks to go, it's actually mathematically possible for a team to finish 5-11 and win the division.  Simultaneously, an NFC team could go 12-4 and be eliminated from playoff contention.  Unlikely as that outcome may be, it still casts a huge black eye on the league's efforts to maintain parity.  If a Wild Card team with 11 or 12 wins had to travel to Atlanta or New Orleans and lost that opening round game, there would be a great many fans and players who would be perfectly justified in being upset over that kind of draw.  However, as last night's game established, even the Saints are very beatable at home now, but more on that later.

1. Sio Moore had the Goat of the Week Award all sewn up for about 3 seconds Thursday night.  The previously-winless Raiders were up 24-20 with less than a minute to play and the Chiefs had the ball.  Moore sacked Alex Smith, and proceeded to run about 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage to dance and celebrate.  He clearly thought the game was over, even though the Chiefs still had 4th down to play.  Had Moore's teammate Justin Tuck not called time out, Moore would have been flagged for a penalty, giving the Chiefs another shot at winning the game.  Tuck wound up being the hero for the Raiders that night, and hopefully Moore bought him a beer or two to thank him.

2. Josh Gordon could tip the balance of power in the AFC North.  As overly dramatic as that sounds, Gordon is the wide receiver playmaker the Browns need for their passing game.  He quickly made his presence know, catching 8 passes on the day for 120 yards.  He hasn't missed a beat since coming off his 10-game suspension, and the Browns look prepared to make a push for January football for the first time since 2002.  They have two divisional games left, one at home against Cincinnati, and the other is a Week 17 game in Baltimore.  Either (or perhaps both) of those games could wind up deciding which team in the AFC North takes the divisional crown.

3. The Goat of the Week Award goes to Dominic Raiola.  Raiola is the center on the Lions' offensive line, and he didn't like the fact that the Patriots had run the ball in for another touchdown with under 2 minutes left to go in the game Sunday.  The Patriots were already up 27-9 at that point, so the game was clearly won, but they wanted another score (which is what they always do anyway).  In retaliation, Raiola made a cut block on Patriots defensive tackle Zach Moore, going right at his knee. Raiola didn't even try to hide that fact, and the irony to his action was that the Lions were taking knees to end the game once they had gotten the ball back.  The NFL is not suspending him, which is surprising since they claim to take player safety so seriously.  Still, it was a cheap shot that was clearly intended to hurt another player on the field.

4. The Seahawks aren't dead yet.  Despite the very real chance that the Seahawks may be the third consecutive defending Super Bowl champion to miss the playoffs the following year, Seattle is currently the 6th seed in the playoff picture.  That could change very quickly starting Thursday night, as the Seahawks play in San Francisco (the two teams play again in Seattle two weeks later).  The Lions are also right on their heels with an identical overall record,  When it's all said and done five weeks from now, I still see the Seahawks being on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  The Lions have 4 very winnable games coming up, followed by wrapping up the regular season in Green Bay.  The Seahawks will also have to worry about the Cowboys, Eagles, and 49ers in fighting for one of the two Wild Card spots.  That's quite a steep hill to climb for them to defend their title.

5. Ryan Mallet is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Texans....just not for the remainder of 2014, since he is done for the year now with a torn pectoral muscle.  However, Houston can take a little bit of comfort knowing that Mallet should be the franchise quarterback the team needs going forward.  He is a free agent after this season, but the Texans should pursue signing him long term instead of looking to the draft for a young prospect.  Since the most important position on the field has been filled for them, Houston is further ahead into their rebuilding process than where they were expected to be at this point.  They can look more towards adding to their group of receivers or offensive line instead come April when the draft rolls around.

6. The Ravens got a steal in Will Hill.  Hill made a crucial pick-6 interception on Drew Brees last night.  He was a low-risk player, signing a one-year deal with the team for the season while he had to serve a six-game suspension for marijuana use.  He nearly took Jimmy Graham completely out of the game, and the Ravens will need him the rest of the way playing at that kind of level since Jimmy Smith is done for the year.  The issue is what does the team do with him after this season.  Torrey Smith and Justin Tucker are both free agents after this year, and Haloti Ngata, Marshal Yanda, and Jimmy Smith all will be free agents after 2015.  The Ravens can't keep all six of those guys, so that will be some serious picking and choosing they'll have to do.  It'd be great to see Ngata and Yanda finish their careers in Baltimore, but I wouldn't be that surprised to see the Ravens let Yanda go since they have some young depth on their offensive line.  Tucker has become a fan favorite and incredibly clutch, so hopefully the Ravens can keep him long term with a well-deserved raise.  There is a clear need for both wide receiver and free safety, so Ozzie Newsome would be smart to lock up Torrey Smith and Hill.

7. Drew Brees is not his normal self this year.  Brees's stats don't seem to indicate much at face value.  His completion percentage is just over 70%, which is right about where it normally is.  His average yards completed per pass is also right around the norm.  He isn't being sacked more than usual.  About the only stats that do look a bit off the norm are his touchdowns and interceptions.  He's thrown 22 touchdowns and 11 picks through 11 games.  Compare those numbers against 2013, when he threw 39 touchdown passes against 12 picks for the season.  He is clearly off his 2013 pace by a significant margin, possibly in part to how poorly the Saints' defense is this year compared to last.  

The Saints' defense gave up a total of 33 touchdowns last year, and they've already given up 32 this season.  Opponents are keeping the ball for nearly 2:30 more per game than they did last year.  Opponents are also 4-of-5 going for it on 4th down this year versus 4-of-12 last year.

The bottom line is this is a "chicken and the egg" kind of discussion.  There's more pressure on Brees to make plays because the Saints aren't playing defense the same way they did last year with largely the same personnel.  On the other hand, a very good argument could be made that the defense faces more pressure because Brees is also not making the kind of plays he is expected to,