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Monday, December 23, 2013

NFL Week 16 Snap Judgments

It's Christmas week, and as we all gather with our families and exchange presents, we can also think about the kinds of gifts that were exchanged this weekend in the NFL.  The Dolphins lost on Sunday, giving the Ravens the gift of winning at least the #6 seed in the playoffs, should they beat the Patriots.  Instead, the Ravens laid an egg, and now sit among 4 teams vying for the final AFC playoff spot.  The Lions lost another shocker, and Matthew Stafford served up a pick-6 to the Giants, putting them out of the playoff chase completely.  The Bears could have won the NFC North had they beaten the Eagles last night, but they, too, were blown out.  The Seahawks could have sewn up the #1 seed in the playoffs, but they dropped one at home against Arizona.  All this giving and giving back is perfectly timed for the Christmas season.

As we gather around for a week of gifting, re-gifting, and de-gifting, may you all have a merry Christmas, and may 2014 bring us all something to cheer about.

1. Where exactly does Peyton Manning rank among the greatest quarterbacks ever?  It's a fun debate to have, considering some of the other names among greatest ever would have to include - in no particular order - Unitas, Favre, Montana, Brady, Bradshaw, and Elway (and probably a few others as well).  Manning is going to win his fifth MVP award after the season, which would make him only the seventh professional athlete to ever accomplish such a feat.  If the Broncos went on to win the Super Bowl, he would be the only quarterback ever to win a championship with two different teams.  It's tough to proclaim him the greatest ever because of his record in the playoffs, but his individual accomplishments cannot be undersold.  Now that the NFL has been altering its rules to further protect the quarterback and wide receivers, Manning has to be seen as the best QB in the last 15 years or so.

2. Of all the teams who had flopped hard on Sunday, the Saints have to be kicking themselves the most.  The Saints could have wrapped up the NFC South and the #2 seed in the playoffs had they won in Carolina.  Instead, their road woes continued, and now instead of getting a bye in the playoffs they are staring at the #6 seed and not getting a home playoff game at all.  They made their playoff push much more difficult for themselves, unless the Panthers somehow lay an egg in Atlanta on Sunday.

3. But don't discount the Ravens for not showing up, either.  In what was easily their single worst team performance under John Harbaugh, the Ravens flat out did not show up against the Patriots.  In fact, it was arguably their worst game since 2007 when they had hosted the Colts in a Sunday night game (which, coincidentally, was a week after a Monday night game hosting the Patriots).  That final was 44-20, but it could have been much worse since the Colts took their feet off the gas after halftime; the Patriots did the exact opposite.  The Ravens flat out stopped trying midway through the third quarter on Sunday, so now they're in a scrum for the #6 playoff seed with the Dolphins, Chargers, and Steelers.

4. There are just too many nominees for the Goat of the Week Award.  Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Terron Armstead, Jim Schwartz, and the Bears defense all were viable nominees for this week's Goat.  The Bears actually got a little reprieve though, since both the Lions and Packers had lost earlier in the day.  Had they won, they could have wrapped up the NFC North.  Instead, they got blown out by the Eagles, and now find themselves in a one-game playoff with the Packers for the division title.  Still, there were plenty of plenty of booby prizes to go around this weekend.

5. Who is the bigger circus, Dallas or Washington?  Prior to the start of yesterday's game, word came out that Jason Garrett would be fired after the season if the Cowboys failed to make the playoffs for the third straight year.  If they lost to the Redskins, their season would be over, so Garrett had to find a way to keep his job, assuming the report was true.  The ongoing soap opera with Jerry Jones running the show, Tony Romo's consistent inconsistency, and Dez Bryant being a drama queen all point to the inmates running the asylum in Dallas.  Somehow, they still found a way to win with their backs up against the wall.

However, the saga in Washington is well-documented.  The fate of Mike Shanahan is still hanging in the balance, and now his son reportedly no longer wants to work with him.  The three-way war between Shanahan, RGIII, and Dan Snyder has been an ongoing story all season long, and whoever coaches the Redskins next year has to be prepared for the same kind of chaos.  The Redskins may in fact be in the worse overall situation at the moment since they would have a pick in the top two spots in April, except that pick goes to the Rams as part of the infamous RGIII trade.

6. Speaking of the Rams, they are my pick for next year's upstart.  Every year, there's a team who jumps up into being a playoff contender out of virtually nowhere.  This year, it was the Panthers and the Chiefs.  The Rams will likely be a popular pick for next year's upstart, and with good reason.  They have a good coach, a solid young running back, a dynamic playmaker in Tavon Austin, and a stout defense.  If they shore up their offensive line and stick with a (hopefully) healthy Sam Bradford, they could make the leap into the postseason.

7. The Raiders are never going to be competitive as long as they keep rotating coaching staffs every few years.  Since 2002, when the Raiders had last made the playoffs, they have gone through 7 head coaches.  Dennis Allen is likely to be fired on Black Monday next week, putting the Raiders in a search for their 8th head coach in 12 years.  They have not come close to even reaching .500 since their trip to the Super Bowl in 2002, much less make the playoffs.  Even the Redskins under Dan Snyder have gone through "only" 4 head coaches in that same span of time.  It's no coincidence that teams who are constantly hiring and firing their coaches are always picking in the top ten in the draft.  It's also no coincidence that, despite picking near the top of the draft almost every year, the Raiders consistently make bad draft choices (see: Russell, JaMarcus; or McClain, Rolando; just to name two).

8. The Falcons may be stuck in rebuilding mode for a while.  After coming so close to the Super Bowl last year, the Falcons jumped off a cliff this season.  Tony Gonzalez is retiring, both their offensive and defensive lines are in shambles, and Steven Jackson looks pretty much done.  They have a lot of holes that will need fixing on both sides of the ball in the offseason, and they may not be able to quickly bounce back with New Orleans and Carolina in their division.

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